OVERVIEW

One Week In Crypto Can Change Things. Fast. ⏩️

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

Source: finviz

And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

Source: TradingView

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
One Week in Crypto: What the Data Actually Says About November & Final-Week Reversals 🖥️ 

November 2025 isn’t over. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Cardano are all down on the month, and there’s one week left. And judging by the mood and sentiment, no one thinks things can change. 🤔 

It’s like the market has written November off as a loss. But consensus is often wrong in crypto, so I did what I always do: I ignored the noise and ran the numbers.

Here’s what 15+ years of Bitcoin data, 9+ years of Ethereum data, and 8+ years of Cardano data actually tell us about final-week reversals – and what they don’t.

The November Reality: Zero Precedent

Let’s start with the uncomfortable truth: the final week of November has never saved a red November across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Cardano.

Not once.

I analyzed every November in the historical record for all three assets – 32 combined Novembers total. In zero of those months did the final week turn a red November green.

Bitcoin: 14 Novembers analyzed, 0 saves
Ethereum: 10 Novembers analyzed, 0 saves
Cardano: 8 Novembers analyzed, 0 saves

If you’re betting on a November final-week reversal based on historical precedent, you’re betting on something that has literally never happened before for these assets.

But that doesn’t mean things are hopeless or that one week can’t change what happened in the past thirty days or even the past ninety days! 🚀 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The Final Week CAN Save Months 📆 

Here’s where it gets interesting. When you look beyond November and examine all months across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Cardano history, the pattern (or lack of one) emerges clearly:

The final week of a month has saved a red month and turned it green 13 times across these three assets.

Additionally, there have been 15 more instances where the final week was positive and recovered 50% or more of the month’s losses, even if the month still finished red.

Total final-week reversals: 28

The Full List Of Final-Week Saves

Bitcoin (6 saves):

1. March 2012: -4.08% to 0.00%

2. July 2013: -2.46% to +8.92%

3. September 2013: -5.39% to +0.64%

4. June 2014: -5.84% to +1.15%

5. May 2016: -0.54% to +17.93%

6. January 2017: -7.22% to +0.22%

Ethereum (4 saves):

1. October 2017: -2.35% to +0.08%

2. October 2019: -10.88% to +1.11%

3. May 2020: -3.04% to +12.40%

4. December 2020: -0.72% to +19.32%

Cardano (3 saves):

1. October 2019: -4.11% to +5.91%

2. December 2020: -11.10% to +5.40%

3. April 2021: -2.91% to +13.48%

Notice what’s missing? November. Not a single November across any of these assets made the list.

Why November Specifically Has No Saves

This is the part where I wish I had a compelling explanation for why November’s final week has never saved a red month. I don’t.

It could be:

• Sample size: Only 32 Novembers total across three assets.

• Market structure: November might have different institutional flows, year-end positioning, or seasonal patterns, November is just spiteful and mean, etc.

• Pure randomness: With a small sample, randomness dominates.

What I can tell you is that the pattern – or lack thereof – is clear in the data. November final weeks haven’t done this. Other months have. ⚠️ 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The Broader Volatility Case: 1,111 Instances 🔢

Here’s where things get interesting if you zoom out beyond “final week of month” analysis. 🔍️

When I looked at any 7-day period across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Cardano history – not just final weeks of months, but any rolling 7-day window – I (well, me and four hallucinating AIs) found 1,111(ish) instances where a single week wiped out one or more months of prior losses.

Instances When 7-Days Wiped Out Long Periods Of Losses

• 399 times (combined BTC, ETH, and ADA): A 7-day period erased 1 month of losses

• 258 times: A 7-day period erased 2 months of losses

• 227 times: A 7-day period erased 3 months of losses

This is the broader volatility argument: one week in crypto is plenty of time.

The fact that November’s final week specifically has never saved a red November doesn’t mean it can’t happen. It just means there’s no precedent. But violent weekly reversals? Those happen constantly. 🤯 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
But Does The Last Week Do Anything In November? 🦃 

Yeah, it does. It just hasn’t fully rescued a November for these three. 🍁 

Some examples:

Bitcoin

November 2011 (omg was this really 14 years ago…)

• Nov 23 MTD: ‑30.3%

• Last week return: +30.4%

• Nov 30 MTD: ‑9.1%

• So the final week massively reduced the damage, but November still closed red.

BTC has had November “rescues” in the sense of less bad, but not a “full reversal”.

Ethereum

November 2022

• Nov 23 MTD: ‑24.6%

• Last week: +9.2%

• Nov 30 MTD: ‑17.7%

• Good rally, still red.

Again, last week can soften the blow, but it has never taken November from below zero to above zero.

Cardano

November 2019

• Nov 23 MTD: ‑8.0%

• Last week: +6.6%

• Nov 30 MTD: ‑1.9%

• That’s the closest thing to a “save” Cardano’s got in November.

So even ADA, patron saint of violent weekly candles, has never pulled a November from red to green in the final week in this dataset. 📒 

TL;DR

I started this analysis looking for evidence that the final week of November could save the month. I wanted to find examples. I wanted to give you and me some, well, something hopeful to talk about at Thanksgiving. I wanted to say “it’s happened before, it can happen again.”

The data didn’t cooperate.

Zero November saves. Not one. I even thought I’d found one (Bitcoin 2015), but when I cross-checked the methodology, it evaporated.

So here’s the truth-over-hype version: the November final-week save has never happened. The broader pattern of crypto volatility is undeniable – 1,111 weekly reversals prove it. But November’s final week specifically? Dead zone.

November 2025 has seven days left to change that.

The precedent says it won’t. But volatility says anything’s possible.

We’ll know in a week. 📆 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The Four Scenarios For The End Of November 2025 🍀

Scenario 1: Dead Cat Month

• Final week is flat or negative

• November stays red

• Historical probability: 85%

Scenario 2: Partial Recovery

• Final week is positive but insufficient

• November stays red but recovers some losses

• Historical probability: 10%

Scenario 3: The Save (Red to Green)

• Final week is strongly positive

• November turns green

• Historical probability based on November data: 0%

• Historical probability based on all-months data: 10 to 15%

Scenario 4: November Behaves Like Other Months

• Final week sees the same 10-15% save rate as other months

• November 2025 becomes the first November final-week save

Odds are it’s in the red. 🟥 

LINKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🔗

😨 Strategy’s bitcoin premium heading toward ‘crypto winter’ lows, TD Cowen says

🤯 Revolut hits $75B valuation following share sale, global push

🫠 Hyperliquid token unlock puts $314M at risk as transparency fears rattle traders

⛄️ Walt Disney imagineering debuts next-generation robotic character, Olaf

👀 Watch developer control bird in Unreal Engine with his hand

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLC, IMX, XTZ, NEAR, HBAR, ALGO, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋