OVERVIEW

One Year Post-BTC Halving: Laziest Rally Ever 🦥

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

Source: Santiment

And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

Source: TradingView

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Crypto News 📰

💵 Trump’s Tariffs Accelerate De-Dollarization

Trump’s aggressive tariff policies have accelerated global de-dollarization, with the dollar slipping in global reserves and markets reacting with their usual calm panic. Chinese financial analysts suggest this trend might finally dethrone the dollar, while JPMorgan analysts politely remind everyone that changing global reserve currencies takes forever. coinpaper.

🔬 Quantum Firm Offers 1 BTC to Break Bitcoin Encryption

Project Eleven announced a competition offering 1 BTC to anyone who can crack Bitcoin’s cryptography using quantum computing. This “Q-Day Prize” wants to test if quantum computers really threaten Bitcoin, or if it’s just another “blockchain killer” that goes nowhere. coinpaper.

🇺🇸 OKX Returns to the U.S. with New CEO, New Exchange

Crypto exchange OKX announced it’s returning to the U.S. market with a fresh headquarters in California, new CEO Roshan Robert, and a shiny crypto wallet for U.S. users. OKX previously left the U.S. after paying $505 million for breaking AML laws, proving that in crypto, what doesn’t kill you just costs half a billion dollars. Welcome back to America – hope you kept your lawyer’s number handy. AltcoinBuzz.

📉 Analyst Who Predicted Mantra’s Collapse Says ‘I Told You So,’

In crypto, prophets are unwelcome until it’s too late. Hedgeye analyst Ishmael Asad predicted Mantra’s OM token collapse three days before its 90% drop, but was mocked by its co-founder and community—classic crypto stuff. Now that billions in value vanished overnight, Asad gets no joy from being right, though he’s generously offering his next predictions at the low cost of everyone else’s dignity.TheStreet.

🐻 XRP ETF Optimism Surges, Options Traders Still Preparing for Disaster 

Despite growing optimism around a potential Ripple ETF approval in the U.S., Deribit’s XRP options market remains stubbornly bearish, with traders hedging against downside risk. Kaiko reports that XRP liquidity is strong, but traders apparently prefer to bet on disaster rather than trust good news. XRP holders once again prove they’re happiest expecting the worst – it’s tradition at this point. CryptoPotato.

PRESENTED BY STOCKTWITS
Block Fuel Live: Special Guest Adrian Norris 👀 

Hosts Avi and Jody are joined by $MSTR veteran, financial engineer, and founding voice in the Truth North Community to discuss all things “Strategy.’ They cover:

• How Strategy is building a new financial economy on top of Bitcoin 🤯 

• Why STRIKE & STRIFE offer dividend-style exposure—& how they differ 💸 

• What to consider before shifting from MSTR to income-generating plays like MSTY or IMIST 🤔 

• And why the “Saylor liquidation” thesis is just plain wrong 👀 

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
One Year Since BTC’s Last Halving

Well, technically, Sunday the 20th is exactly one year since Bitcoin’s last halving—but The Litepaper doesn’t roll on Sundays, and tomorrow’s Good Friday, so here we are. 🤷‍♂️

Anyway, there’ve been four Bitcoin halvings, and each one has delivered decent-to-insane returns within the following year. But unless BTC pulls off some last-minute miracle rally (don’t hold your breath), 2024’s halving officially goes down as the lamest of the bunch.

2024 Halving Is The Worst 1-Year Performance Ever:

BTC’s +32.74% one-year gain post-2024 halving is its lowest-ever 12-month return after a halving event.

Historic Average (2012–2020) vs. 2024

• Average one-year return (prior cycles): +368.55%

• 2024 one-year return: +32.74% (roughly 9x lower)

6-Month Performance Also Weakest

• 2012: +66.39%

• 2016: +38.17%

• 2020: +83.26%

• 2024: +5.29%

Early Momentum, 90-Day Lowest Since 2016

• 2012: +85.51%

• 2016: -5.00%

• 2020: +29.09%

• 2024: +4.37%

In short, Bitcoin’s price action in the year since the 2024 halving is undeniably positive—but it’s easily the most underwhelming performance in BTC’s entire post-halving history. 🤦 

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Burnt Bag Briefing 🔥 

Want to know whether the bulls or bears are feeling the most pain today? Well, this is the place to look. 👀

24-Hour Liquidation Heat Map – Source: coinglass – Click to enlarge.

In the past 24 hours, 69,088 traders were liquidated, with total liquidations reaching nearly $132.83 million.

The largest single liquidation occurred on Bybit, a BTCUSD pair valued at $2.03 million.

Longs lost $70.96 million, while shorts were hit for $61.87 million. 🤕

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NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
AI, Stablecoins, & Privacy News 🕵️ 

🦑 Sui Launches Nautilus

You can now prove your shady offchain math is legit, onchain. Sui rolled out Nautilus, a toolkit letting developers securely run verifiable computations offchain using Trusted Execution Environments (TEEs), like AWS Nitro Enclaves. With features ranging from private AI inference to tamper-proof oracles, Nautilus offers devs privacy without sacrificing decentralization. Sui.

🕶️ Wunder Partners with Secret Network, Letting Creators Monetize Their Data Without Selling Their Soul

Wunder teamed up with Secret Network to deliver private AI assistants and encrypted royalty tools, giving creators control of their data, earnings, and IP. Using encrypted smart contracts, creators can now enforce licensing, get royalties without exposing their data, and finally ditch platforms that treat privacy like a punchline. Secret Network.

🏦 Bank of America, Tether, and Circle Battle Over Stablecoin Rules

As U.S. stablecoin legislation heats up, Bank of America wants rules favoring traditional banks, while Circle and Tether fight over who’s the least sketchy stablecoin issuer. Circle argues it’s fully transparent, while Tether reminds everyone that sketchy or not, it’s still number one. Congress remains confused, as always, ensuring regulatory clarity is scheduled for precisely never. TheBlock.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Real World Asset Tokenization (RWA) News 🪙 

🏢 Blocksquare and Vera Capital Tokenize $1B in Real Estate

Blocksquare and Vera Capital struck a $1 billion deal to tokenize U.S. real estate, marking a major leap for blockchain’s slow creep into traditional finance. Investors flocked to the first property offering, proving people love complicated ways to buy normal assets. Your parents still don’t understand crypto, but hey, at least they can own 0.001% of a Miami condo now. coinpaper.

💸 Stellar Plans $3B Real-World Asset Push

The Stellar Development Foundation announced ambitious plans to onboard $3 billion worth of real-world assets by the end of 2025, partnering with firms like Paxos, Ondo, Etherfuse, and SG Forge. Stellar’s goal is clear: turn traditional finance into tokenized finance, and hope no one notices they’re slowly turning into the blockchain version of Vanguard. CoinDesk.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Metaverse, NFT, & Gaming News 🎮️

🤖 Flow Wins Over Devs at TinTinLand AI Hackathon by Actually Making Web3 Usable

Flow emerged as the blockchain of choice at TinTinLand’s AI Agent Hackathon, with over half of participating teams building on it. Winners like TradingFlow AlphaVerse (NFT-governed quant fund) and BuidlLand (AI-run DAO incubator) leveraged Flow’s lightning-fast 800ms block times, cheap transactions, and Solidity-compatible Flow EVM. Flow.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
DeFi, DEX, & Lending Protocol News 🏦

🧙‍♀️ The Graph Foundation Adds Wonderland to Core Team

The Graph just hired the Web3 equivalent of Hermione Granger. Wonderland, known for work with Ethereum and Optimism, joined The Graph as a core dev team to supercharge cryptography, decentralized network performance, and tokenomics. Their involvement marks a major upgrade to the ecosystem’s brainpower, promising deeper decentralization and smarter economics. The Graph.

🎉 Hedera Eliminates Fees for Successful Ethereum Transactions

Hedera introduced a new fee model (HIP-1084) that eliminates charges for successful Ethereum-based transactions by relay operators. Now relay providers like Thirdweb and Arkhia won’t bleed cash with every successful transaction—only failures incur fees. This aligns Hedera closer to Ethereum’s approach, slashing operational costs and making operators wonder why this wasn’t done sooner. Hedera.

LINKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🔗

🗯️ Snapchain goes live, boosting Farcaster’s growth

⚠️ Ripple CTO David Schwartz warns of sophisticated scam targeting XRP investors

💊 Eli Lilly’s stock soars after weight-Loss pill competing with Ozempic shows promise

🎰 Crypto Casino Founder Richard Kim Arrested After Gambling Away Investor Funds

🏎️ Mario Kart World reveals free roam, emotes and food in Special Direct

Meet Jobu, the good luck charm behind the St. Louis Blues’ late-season run to the playoffs

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in ADA, IMX, COPI, MIN, AGIX, ALGO, ZEC, XLM, and NEAR. 📋