Rally Had Us Going In The First Half NGL
NEWS
Rally Had Us Going In The First Half NGL
Source: Tenor
Welp, the Vix closed at a five-year high, so your guess is as good as mine what’s going to happen tomorrow.
Like Monday, everything changed after someone tweeted. This time, stocks started to tank after a report from the White House that the Trump administration was moving forward with the 104% tariff salvo because China had not backed down.
The morning’s +4% rally fell away, and the market trended toward the red until the close, recording a $2.3T market cap loss for the S&P 500. The index closed below 5k points for the first time in nearly a year—welcome back. 👀
Today’s issue covers Republicans criticizing the tariff drop, insurance firms climbing on a new government payout, and a pot stock getting smoked. 📰
Here’s the S&P 500 heatmap. All sectors closed red, with financials (-0.17%) leading and consumer discretionary (-4.29%) lagging.
Source: finviz
And here are the closing prices:
|
S&P 500 |
4,983 |
-1.57% |
|
Nasdaq |
15,268 |
-2.15% |
|
Russell 2000 |
1,761 |
-2.73% |
|
Dow Jones |
37,646 |
-0.84% |
STOCKS
The Biggest To The Worst Turn Around 🐻
Headlines this morning claimed it was the best one-day gain back for three years—before everyone remembered that yesterday, Trump legitimately doubled down on his reciprocal tariffs, now launching at midnight.
Remember, it’s tariffs on 86 countries, though China levies alone could amount to more than $400B in taxes collected this year based on last year’s trade numbers. Double or nothing is not a great look for stocks, and the market sits 1% away from bear territory. 🤯
Early in the day, BlackRock released a three-month downgrade on all US equities, and JPMorgan put the likelihood of a recession at 79%.
Morgan Stanley sided with BlackRock’s Larry Fink on Tuesday when they said the Fed won’t cut rates this year if tariffs cause inflation. ⚠️
Even the GOP has started to voice concern, most notably from the U.S.’s retirement age hall monitors: Senators. Likely feeling the 401k pain, North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis asked Trade Representative Jamieson Greer who he could strangle if this turns out to be a massive mistake.
Source: Fox Business
Tillis might have a point: He was asking when this would all end, when China says so, or when Trump says so. In response to unilateral tariffs on all goods, including steel, China said it was ready to fight until the end. ⚔️
A half dozen GOP Senators, including Sen. Mitch McConnell, signed a proposed Trade Review Act last week, granting Congress the right to review trade measures. However, the White House said it would veto the measure, duh.
Peter Navarro, an eight-year alumnus of Trump’s ear on trade, has made his way through more than a few TV interviews. Today, he claimed that 70 countries are on their way to negotiate with Trump, and for most, 0% tariffs won’t be enough. The U.S. needs reparations for buying more goods from places like Vietnam than Vietnam buys from the U.S., he said. 🤔
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the opposite earlier in the day, that negotiations could bring some “good deals.”
Telsa Chief Elon Musk, no longer appearing alongside Trump, has broken ranks as well to call out Navarro- calling him “truly a moron,” and “dumber than a sack of bricks” after facing criticsm. 😅
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COMPANY NEWS
Insurance Firms Everywhere Love This One Trick 🧑⚕️
It wasn’t all tariff news. Healthcare sales and insurance stocks climbed upwards of 5% to the highest gainers on the S&P 500 after the Trump administration said the Fed would pay higher rates to insurers next year, generating $25 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal. The rate announced was 5%, about double Biden’s rate.
Humana (+11%), CVS Health (+6%), and UnitedHealth (+5%) were the outsized leaders of the S&P 500 gainers by percentage gain. They led Lockheed Martin (+3%) after Trump said he was pushing for a $1 trillion budget for defense. 💣️
Mehmet Oz, the newly confirmed head of the Fed Medicare Advantage program, has voiced his support for private insurance firms in the Medicare System.
He also recently spoke out against the same program for purposely upcharging the American people. That’s not just jargon — last summer, The Wall Street Journal reported that Medicare Advantage recently came under fire for allegedly paying out $50 billion for medication for diseases that other doctors could not verify.
But hey, what’s another $25 billion between friends? 🙃
STOCKS
Other Noteworthy Pops & Drops 📋️
Blackstone ($BX -4%): Citi analyst Christopher Allen lowered the asset manager’s price target to $137 from $190 and kept a ‘Neutral’ rating on the shares. He factored in a pushout of a capital markets recovery and lower performance fee expectations.
CVS Health ($CVS +6%): The retail pharmacy chain appointed a new chief financial officer to strengthen the leadership team. The firm also said it expects full-year 2025 financial results to meet or exceed its previously issued guidance.
Stellantis ($STLA -8%): The Chrysler parent reportedly stopped production of its Chinese partner Leapmotor’s T03 small electric car at its Tychy plant in Poland. The company told Reuters that it is assessing alternative production options
Pacira BioSciences ($PCRX +14%): Multiple brokerages raised their price targets following a patent litigation settlement. Pacira CEO Frank D. Lee said Monday that the settlement agreement provides “clarity” around EXPAREL exclusivity.
Safe & Green Holdings ($SGBX -5%): Its wholly owned subsidiary, Olenox Corp., has purchased a 51% stake in Winchester Oil and Gas. Olenox specializes in acquiring and revitalizing distressed energy assets to enhance production while minimizing environmental impact.
CorMedix ($CRMD +10%): The biopharma company’s preliminary first-quarter earnings beat estimates, and RBC Capital reiterated a bullish view on the stock.
Cosmos Health ($COSM -1%): The healthcare group announced the launch of its Sky Premium Life food supplements brand in Albania. The company said the launch is in partnership with Tirana-based pharmaceutical company Pharma Cell.
PRESENTED BY STOCKTWITS
Trends With Friends’ New Member (For Now) 👀
I joined Howard, Michael, and Phil on Trends With Friends and almost got myself kicked off the show two minutes into it. But we survived, and they invited me back for another week to share my technical views and Stocktwits community insights.
We discuss why this is the stupidest crash ever, and a lot more, including:
-
The traditional volatility index (VIX) vs. the Stocktwits “Social Vix”
-
How Trump’s tariffs gifted China a 5-year tech lead
-
The new rules of “Kiss the Ring” capitalism
-
How to stay healthy and sane during market corrections
EARNINGS
Marijuana Stocks Smoked To New Lows 🌫️
Tilray Brands’ third-quarter earnings report was filled with red flags, sending shares down over 20% to new lows and dragging the popular industry ETFs down with it. ETFs like $MJ, $MSOS, $YOLO, and others made fresh all-time closing lows. 📉
The company’s net revenue of $186 million was down 2% YoY, but gross profit margins rose 200 bps to 28%. Notably, its Cannabis segment gross margins rose 800 bps YoY.
With that said, its net loss of $793.5 million was driven by $700 million in noncash impairments that it attributed to “macroeconomic conditions.” It also downwardly revised its fiscal-2025 revenue guidance to $850 to $900 million. ✂️
Overall, the Cannabis industry continues to struggle in public markets. Industry consolidation will need to continue until U.S. legislation becomes more supportive.
Source: Stocktwits
WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋
Economic data: India Rate Decision (12:30 am), Wholesale Inventories (10 am), Energy Inventories (10:30 am), Fed Barkin Speech (12:30 pm), FOMC Minutes (2 pm). 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: Delta Air Lines ($DAL), Simply Good Foods ($SMPL). 🛏️
After-Hour Earnings: Constellation Brands ($STZ), PriceSmart ($PSMT), Lakeland Industries ($LAKE). 🎧
P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls and more straight from the Stocktwits app or website. You’ll find them on the calendar page and individual symbol pages once they’re set to begin! We’ll see you there. 👍
Links That Don’t Suck 🌐
🧑🏫 Join IBD’s experts for a comprehensive workshop where you’ll learn the secrets of short selling*
👮 Trump’s DOJ will no longer prosecute cryptocurrency fraud
🏠️ Mortgage rates slingshot higher as tariff uncertainty roils markets
🛢️ Keystone oil pipeline shutdown could quickly lead to higher gasoline prices
🛒 Walmart is facing tariffs and recession fears. It may have a secret weapon to keep growing
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