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CLOSING BELL
Tariffs? Best We’ve Got Is TACO

tenor

The market whiplashed a bit Thursday as investors watched conflicting reports from the courts on Trump’s tariffs, likely to head to the Supreme Court soon as lesser judiciaries attempt to block aspects of the president’s executive power flexes. Big if true, but some have coined the term TACO, for Trump Always Chickens Out, to describe the rocky road to small changes.

In tech, Nvidia was positive despite warning about China chip bans on Wednesday, and Tesla was green after Chief Musk said farewell to his short stint in government, for now. His firm hopes to launch self-driving cars in Austin in a week or two. 👀

Today’s issue covers Tesla’s Chief Headed Back To Work, After-Hours Earnings Were Less Optimistic, Trump’s Tariffs Face Judicial Reckoning. 📰

With the final numbers for indexes and the ETFs that track them, 10 of 11 sectors closed green, with health care $XLV ( ▲ 0.67% ) leading and communications $XLC ( ▼ 0.81% ) lagging.

finviz

S&P 500 $SPY ( ▲ 0.4% ) 5,912

Nasdaq 100 $QQQ ( ▲ 0.2% ) 21,363

Russell 2000 $IWM ( ▲ 0.3% ) 2,074

Dow Jones $DIA ( ▲ 0.25% ) 42,215

NEWS
Tesla’s Chief Headed Back To Work 🚗 

Uber fell Thursday, and financial media saw Tesla’s upcoming Austin self-driving event as a catalyst: if cars drive themselves, who’s calling an Uber?

It wasn’t just that driving news in the car world, it was the return of the car-making giant’s prodigal son. Elon Musk said his sad goodbyes on X, at the end of his 130-day government stint, and headed back to work (hopefully) full time.

It could not have come at a better time. On Wednesday, a group of pension fund Tesla investors wrote a letter to the board, demanding Musk spend at least 40 hours a week at the EV firm. Seems like a reasonable demand for the man who has led firings for government employees for shirking work. 👀 

Retail investors are downright ‘neutral’ when talking Tesla on Stocktwits. What do you think— cast your vote!

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Now he’s doing just that. Spencer teamed up with fellow Zillow exec Austin Allison to launch Pacaso. Pacaso’s co-ownership marketplace is disrupting the $1.3T vacation home market. They’ve already surpassed $110M in gross profit and $1B in transactions.

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COMPANY EARNINGS
Nvidia And Elf Led Gains, But After Hours Was Less Optimistic 🙃 

$NVDA ( ▲ 3.25% ) climbed Thursday, a classic beat and raise, and despite a warning they would lose $8B to China chip curbs. Wall Street analysts raised price targets, but It was not the only firm climbing on earnings news. e.l.f. Beauty flew after the firm beat expectations Wednesday, and said it was acquiring Hailey Bieber’s Gen Z favorite Rhode brand for $1 billion, marking its biggest acquisition to date.

After the bell on Thursday, Costco beat sales estimates with $63.2B, and growing 8% YoY despite shaky consumer confidence.

On the flip side, $GAP ( ▼ 1.03% ) sank like a rock after it reported following the closing bell, beating estimates and holding its sales guidance for a gain of 1-2%. Still, the firm warned its brands, Old Navy, Athleta, and Banana Republic, were not set to predict the impact of ever-changing tariff impacts. It was not a great day to report retail import sales, as the courts argued tit for tat wit the White House. More on that below, but first, a new Stocktwits feature that you can read more about down below. 😍 

Stocktwits users drifted further into ‘bearish’ according to the brand new Sentiment Index. What the heck is a sentiment index, you ask…..

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🟢 Introducing the Stocktwits Sentiment Index

Wall Street watches the $VIX for expected volatility.

Stocktwits traders have the Stocktwits Sentiment Index, which measures retail investor emotion and updates daily after close.

Today’s Takeaway:

📈 Retail caution is rising, as the latest Stocktwits Sentiment Index reading signals heightened fear.

Remember:

• The $VIX is based on the options market’s near-term volatility expectations.

• The Stocktwits Sentiment Index is based on what retail traders are feeling and signaling right now.

• Combining both gives traders a smarter, earlier read on market shifts.

P.S. The Stocktwits Sentiment Index is currently only available on Desktop, on the Stocktwits homepage.

…EXCEPT DEATH AND TACOS
Trump’s Tariffs Face Judicial Reckoning. Will It Be Strong Arms Or Tacos Next 🌮 

So the Court of International Trade ruled Wednesday that Trump overstepped his authority imposing new tariffs, and said the executive branch had to pause a share of Trump’s tariffs pending review.

The market opened higher (a little) on that news, but waited for the inevitable rebuttal. The ruling only affected general tariffs on nations, not levies on specific goods like steel. 🏗️ 

The Trump Admin had its response, and went to tell mom and dad, or in this case, the Supreme Court, to ask to halt the ruling Friday that halted their rule. They also petitioned lower courts for help, and late Thursday, a federal appeals court ruled tariffs are fine for now, and the administration can collect tariffs while the lawyers push it through the appeal process.

So, who wins? Lawyers, as always.

In any case, there are plenty of levers to pull in the White House, some hundreds of years old, to put taxes on trade. Goldman Sachs analysts said the Trump administration has multiple tools to offset the recent court ruling. The court blocked the use of a 1977 emergency act, but Trump Trade Advisor Peter “Dow Falls” Navarro said the admin could use 1974’s Section 122 tariffs for up to 15% tariffs for 150 days. 🎱 

The White House also considered Section 301 tariffs that enable the Trade Representative to act against foreign powers for unreasonable trade practices.

In other macroeconomic theatre news, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell met with President Trump at the White House, emphasizing that monetary policy decisions will be based on objective, non-political analysis. Powell wants to wait for economic data, and Trump reportedly said Powell was making a mistake.

Treasury yields fell after revised Q1 GDP data showed an economic contraction in Q1, though less than feared, but the first contraction since 2022. The economy shrank 0.2%, beating expectations of a 0.4% decline, and weekly jobless claims rose to 240,000 from 226,000. Investors are now watching April PCE inflation data for any uptick in current prices. 🛍️ 

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POPS & DROPS
Noteworthy Stories From Stocktwits News 🗞️ 

$CRM ( ▼ 3.3% ) reported Q1 revenue of $9.83 billion, up 8% year-over-year, with adjusted EPS of $2.58, beating estimates of $2.55. The stock fell, though analysts noted strong execution and momentum in its Agentforce strategy. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits remained bullish.

Li Auto reported Q1 revenue of $3.6 billion, beating estimates, with vehicle deliveries rising 15.5% year-over-year to 92,864 units. However, Q2 guidance disappointed investors, with projected revenue growth of 2.5%–6.7% and deliveries expected to increase 13.3%–17.9%, falling short of analyst forecasts.

$AI ( ▲ 20.77% ) shares surged after reporting Q4 revenue of $108.7 million, up 26% year-over-year, with a non-GAAP net loss of $0.16 per share, beating estimates of a $0.20 loss. The company also secured a $450 million contract expansion with the U.S. Air Force and renewed its Baker Hughes partnership through 2028, reinforcing investor confidence.

Best Buy fell 7% after the firm reported Q1 revenue of $8.77 billion, missing estimates of $8.81 billion, while adjusted EPS of $1.15 topped forecasts of $1.09. The company cut its full-year sales and profit guidance due to tariff-related cost pressures, lowering its revenue outlook to $41.1 billion–$41.9 billion from $41.4 billion–$42.2 billion.

$KSS ( ▼ 0.74% ) reported a Q1 net loss of $0.13 per share, narrower than the expected $0.37 loss, with revenue of $3.23 billion beating estimates despite a 3.9% decline in comparable sales. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance, expecting net sales to decline between 5% and 7%. The stock jumped at open before dropping into a decline.

HP shares fell 7% after reporting Q2 adjusted EPS of $0.71, missing estimates of $0.80, while revenue rose 3% year-over-year to $13.22 billion. Analysts cut price targets, citing tariff-related cost pressures and weaker-than-expected guidance, with HP lowering its full-year EPS outlook to $3.00–$3.30 from $3.45–$3.75.

WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋

Economic data: Core PCE Price Index (8:30am), Goods Trade Balance (8:30am), Chicago PMI (9:45am), Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10:00am), Fed Bostic Speech (12:20pm), Fed Goolsbee Speech (7:30pm). 📊

Pre-Market Earnings: Canopy Growth Corporation ($CGC).🛏️

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls and more straight from the Stocktwits app or website. You’ll find them on the calendar page and individual symbol pages once they’re set to begin! We’ll see you there. 👍

Links That Don’t Suck 🌐

📰 Want to find the next big AI stock? IBD Digital has everything you need—save $55+ today*

👀 The Fed Forecasts Stagflation

🩸 Behind the Curtain: A white-collar bloodbath

⚓️ Trump tariffs reinstated by appeals court for now

🏠️ US weekly jobless claims rise more than expected as labor market eases

🛒 Elon Musk Is Leaving Washington. How That Affects Trump’s Agenda.

*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.

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