The Week in Charts (10/29/25)

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The most important charts and themes in markets and investing…

1) A Rally for the Ages

In what has become a rally for the ages, the S&P 500 is now up 43% from the April lows. And incredibly, it has done so without a meaningful pullback along the way.

The S&P 500 is now over 2,000 points higher than where it bottomed at the April lows, crossing above 6,900 this week for the first time. That was its 9th 100-point milestone of the year.

The S&P 500 has now hit 440 all-time highs since the start of 2013, hitting 36 more so far this year. That’s the most for any 13-year period in history.

2) Playing With Fire

As often happens in a period of unrelenting gains, investors are rapidly moving up the risk curve:

• SPAC IPOs are making a comeback, with year-to-date issuance of over $22 billion. That’s the highest we’ve seen since 2021.

• Meme stocks are seeing a resurgence of interest from speculators, with Roundhill Investments relaunching their ETF ($MEME) a few weeks ago. Their first launch occurred near the peak in late 2021 and the fund was shut down after disastrous results in 2023.
• Leveraged products are becoming increasing popular, in everything from perpetual futures on crypto (100x now being offered by Gemini) to filings for 5x leverage ETFs on individual stocks, sectors, and crypto coins.

When speculative fever is rampant as it is today, no one is thinking about risk. But when you play with fire, you may get burned, as holders of the 3x short AMD ETF recently learned. The leveraged fund crashed to 0 after a 38% spike in AMD.

3) The Longest Shutdown in History?

The betting markets are now expecting the US government shutdown to last 47 days. That would be the longest in history, surpassing the 35-day shutdown in 2018-2019.

Has that had a negative impact on the stock market?

Not at all.

The S&P 500 has posted a positive return during the last 6 government shutdowns and is up 3% so far during the current shutdown, hitting 8 more all-time highs.

4) Inflation Hits a 16-Month High and the Fed Is Cutting Rates Again Today

Overall US CPI moved up to 3.0% in September, the highest level in 16 months.

Since the start of 2020, we’ve seen seen inflation average 4%, double the Fed’s target.

Despite rising inflation, the Fed will cut interest rates another 25 bps today (down to 3.75-4.00%), likely saying labor market weakness necessitates a cut.

When was the last time the Fed cut interest rates with inflation this high (CPI >3%)?

October 2008, in the midst of the worst recession/bear market since the Great Depression.

Today the Unemployment Rate is 4.3% and the S&P 500 is at an all-time high, up over 18% on the year.

5) The Most Absurd Number in CPI

What’s the most absurd number in CPI?

According to the US Government, the cost of health insurance has declined 18% over the last 5 years…

Meanwhile, the actual cost of health insurance is up over 26% in the past five years.

Since 1999, the average US family health insurance premium has skyrocketed 365%, moving from $6k to $27k). That’s an increase of 6.1% per year, more than double the overall inflation rate during that time (2.6%/year).

6) Hello $38 Trillion

The US National Debt has now increased by $1.8 trillion since the Debt Ceiling was raised in July, hitting $38 trillion for the first time.

Where are we headed next? The sky’s the limit…

7) A Pause in the Gold Rush

The Gold ETF recently hit its most overbought level on record (monthly RSI).

Then it dropped 6.4% in a single trading day last week, its biggest daily decline in over 12 years and the 4th biggest since inception of the ETF in November 2004.

Gold now accounts for over 20% of global central bank reserves, the highest share we’ve seen in nearly three decades.

Over the past 2 years, Gold has moved from 4% to 6% of global investable assets. That’s the highest share since 1986. During the 1980 Gold bubble it peaked at 22% of global investable assets. 20 years later (in 2000) it fell to just 1%.

Before its recent 10% pullback, Gold was the best performing major asset class over the last 20 years with an annualized return of over 11%.

8) Walmart’s Winning Formula

This fall, Walmart’s story will be taught at Harvard Business School as a case study of success.

In 2015, Walmart raised pay for nearly half of its 1 million hourly workers – not out of benevolence, but necessity. Turnover was high, morale was low, and customers noticed. Investors initially reacted negatively to the news, sending Walmart shares down 10%.

But what was the end result after a 48% increase in pay since 2016?

A happier & more productive workforce, better shopping experience, and a 450% surge in its stock price.

9) A Buyer’s Market in Austin

Austin, Texas is the strongest buyer’s market in America with home sellers outnumbering home buyers by 130%.

As a result, Austin home prices are now down 24% from their peak in June 2022…

10) A Few Interesting Stats…

a) Self-driving taxi company Waymo is now doing 876,000 rides per month in California, a 6x increase over the past year and 69x increase since August 2023.

b) A record 10% of US businesses reported using AI in the past 2 weeks, up from 6% a year ago. What will this number be in a year?

c) China has 44 million metric tons of Rare Earth reserves, more than double the next highest country (Brazil).

d) The percentage of US adults who say they drink alcohol has plummeted to 54%, the lowest in the history of a Gallup poll that goes back nearly 90 years.

e) 71 million Social Security beneficiaries will see a 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) beginning in January 2026. The average annual increase over the last decade: 3.1%.

f) US state regulators have approved an average home insurance rate increase of 50% since the start of 2020, nearly double the 26% increase in overall inflation (CPI) during that time.

And that’s it for this week. Thanks for reading!

Every week I do a video breaking down the most important charts and themes in markets and investing. Subscribe to our YouTube channel HERE for the latest content.

Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Read our full disclosures here.

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