The Week in Charts (11/13/25)

View the video of this post here.

Over the last 30 years, the purchasing power of the US Consumer Dollar has been cut in half due to inflation. At the same time, the S&P 500 has gained 874% (7.9% per year) AFTER adjusting for inflation. Why you need to invest, in one chart…

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The most important charts and themes in markets and investing…

1) Why Is Buffett Holding So Much Cash?

Berkshire Hathaway was a net seller of stocks once again in the 3rd quarter, raising its Cash pile to a record $382 billion. That’s 250% higher than where it stood just three years ago in the midst of the 2022 bear market.

Berkshire Hathaway is now holding over 31% of their Assets in Cash, their highest percentage on record.

So why is Buffett holding so much cash?

This was his explanation at their annual meeting earlier this year:

“We’d love to spend it [cash], but we won’t spend it unless we think we’re doing something that has very little risk and can make us a lot of money. We only swing at pitches we like. It isn’t like I’ve got a hunger strike or something like that going on. It’s just that things aren’t attractive.”

And since then, they have continued to sell down their stock holdings, including their biggest position (Apple).

Which presumably means that things have gotten less attractive.

One way to measure that is to look at valuations.

When Berkshire first started buying Apple in 2016 it sold for just 10x earnings and 2x sales. Today, it trades at over 36x earnings and nearly 10x sales.

Overall US equity valuations have continued to rise as well. The S&P 500’s CAPE Ratio recently crossed above 40 for just the 2nd time in history (first time was in 1999) and is now higher than 98% of historical readings.

2) The Longest Shutdown in History Is Over

The House passed a spending package last night and President Trump quickly signed it into law, ending the longest shutdown in US history at 43 days.

While there’s a debate over how much this will impact the economy this quarter, the stock market completely shrugged it off. The S&P 500 gained 2.4% during the shutdown, hitting 8 more all-time highs. This was the 7th consecutive shutdown with a positive return for the S&P 500.

3) The Highest Beat Rate Since 2021

Over 80% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings expectations thus far, the highest beat rate since the 2nd quarter of 2021. In total, Q3 earnings are coming in at over 10% above analyst estimates, which is the highest upside surprise we’ve seen since Q2 2021.

With 81% of companies reported, S&P 500 operating earnings are up 24% YoY, the 11th straight positive quarter and highest growth rate since Q4 2021.

The big story during the quarter has been margin expansion, with the S&P 500 companies posting a 13.4% operating profit margin. That’s the second highest level on record.

4) Job Cuts Spike in Red October

US companies announced 153,000 job cuts in October, a 175% increase from a year ago. This was the highest number of layoffs for any October in over 20 years and the most for any single month in Q4 since 2008.

The US has added an average of just 3,000 private-sector jobs per month over the last 3 months (ADP data), the slowest pace since the 2020 recession. A year ago, we were adding over 200,000 jobs per month.

5) Consumer Sentiment Nears Record Lows

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index has moved down to 50.3, the 2nd lowest reading in the survey’s history (since 1952).

But at the same time, US Retail Sales grew 4.8% over the last year, outpacing inflation by 1.8%. We’ve never seen a disconnect this wide between what the US consumer is saying and what they are doing.

6) Young People Are Eating Fewer Burritos

That was the takeaway from Chipotle’s recent earnings call where the company said they are losing younger and lower-income customers who have been hit harder by rising inflation and slowing wage growth. “They feel the pinch and we feel the pull back from them,” said CEO Scott Boatright.

Chipotle is now forecasting restaurant sales to decline in the low-single-digit range this year and they noted higher beef prices and tariffs impacting the company’s costs.

Chipotle’s stock is down 48% in 2025 vs. an 18% gain for the S&P 500. Its competitors in the “fast casual” space, including Shake Shake (-30%) and Cava (-57%), are experiencing a slowdown as well.

7) Delaying the American Dream

The median age of a first-time home buyer in the US has moved up to 40 from 31 a decade ago.

At the same time, the share of first-time homebuyers in the US hit a record low of 21% this year.

The reason?

This is by far the most unaffordable housing market in history.

The housing affordability crisis is delaying the American Dream for an entire generation.

How could we make housing more affordable? Here are five ways (click here for our podcast discussion):

• Stop printing money.
• End the Fed’s interest rate suppression + MBS buying.
• Wind down Fannie/Freddie -> no more FHA guarantees.
• Place a 50% sales tax on corporate/foreign buyers and use revenue to cut local property taxes.
• Sell unused government land (excluding parks) for new home development.

8) A Few Interesting Stats…

a) Self-driving taxi company Waymo is now doing 1 million rides per month in California, a 3x increase over the past year and 26x increase over the past two years.

b) Nvidia is now bigger than every international stock market in the world except Japan.

c) The best performing stocks in the S&P 500 over the last 5, 10, 15, and 20 years…

d) The Magnificent 7 make up a record 35.9% of the S&P 500’s market cap … but just 26.8% of its profits.

And that’s it for this week. Thanks for reading!

Every week I do a video breaking down the most important charts and themes in markets and investing. Subscribe to our YouTube channel HERE for the latest content.

Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Read our full disclosures here.

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