The Week in Charts (3/24/26)

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The most important charts and themes in markets and investing…

1) The Return of Risk

The S&P 500 is now down 7.6% from its January peak, its largest drawdown since the tariff turmoil last April.

While this feels like a big drop, we see a decline of this amount or more during most calendar years.

In fact, each of past three years saw bigger declines at some point (-10.3% in 2023, -8.5% in 2024, and -18.9% in 2025). The market would recover from all of these to post big gains (+26.3% in 2023, +25.0% in 2024, and +17.9%).

Will we see a similar recovery this year?

No one knows. That’s the risk you take as an equity investor, and the primary reason why stocks deliver higher long-term returns than bonds and cash.

In the short run, much will be dependent on what happens with Crude Oil and the war in Iran.

The big questions that remain: how long will the war last, will we see an escalation with troops on the ground, and how long will the supply of Crude Oil and other commodities be constrained?

We still don’t have any clarity on these questions, which has put continued upward pressure on global commodity prices.

And the resultant rise in inflation expectations and interest rates has pushed down not only stocks but bonds as well.

2) Rate Hike Before Rate Cut?

The Cleveland Fed is now forecasting a 3% CPI Inflation reading for March, up from 2.4% in February.

The Fed will have this report in hand before they meet again on April 29, eliminating any chance of a rate cut.

We’ve seen a dramatic shift in Fed Funds Futures over the past few weeks.

At the start of the year, the bond market was pricing in two Fed rate cuts in 2026.

And now it is pricing in a higher probability of a RATE HIKE (25%) than a RATE CUT (8%).

The data supporting a potential hike goes beyond just the recent move higher in commodities. Both Consumer (CPI) and Producer (PPI) prices in the US have risen at a rate of more than double the Fed’s 2% target over the past five years.

And this is data from before the Iran war began. Over the past month we’ve seen a 35% increase in US gas prices, the biggest one-month spike in the past 30 years. These are the highest levels since August 2022.

One thing’s for certain: this chart on global inflation rates is going to look at lot different a month from now. The wave of global monetary easing that we’ve seen over the past few years is over for the time being.

3) Oil Spikes and Recessions

Will the spike in Oil lead to a US recession? That’s a question investors are starting to ask with Consumer Discretionary stocks ($XLY ETF) now down 10% on the year while Energy stocks ($XLE ETF) have gained 33%.

There is some historical precedent for Oil spikes contributing to a downturn in the economy:

• 1973-74: Arab Oil embargo led to a spike in Oil prices, and the US economy fell into recession from 1973-75.
• 1979-80: Iranian Revolution led to a spike in Oil prices, and the US economy experienced a double-dip recession (1980, 1981-82).
• 1990-91: Gulf War led to a spike in Oil prices, and the US economy fell into recession (1990-91).
• 2000: Oil prices spiked near the dot-com bubble peak and the US fell into recession in 2001.
• 2007-08: Global demand pushed the price of Crude Oil up to a record $147/barrel, and the US economy experienced its worst recession since the Great Depression.

The spike in Oil wasn’t the only reason for these downturns, just one contributing factor. But with a US economy highly dependent on the US consumer (>70% of GDP), a sustained move higher in Oil/inflation can have a meaningful impact.

There are always exceptions, though, and we saw that most recently in 2022 when inflation and Oil spiked higher after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. While US Real GDP did decline in Q1 of that year (-1%) and after revisions was only slightly higher in Q2 (+0.6%), there was no official recession declaration by the NBER. Oil and inflation came back down and the diversified US economy weathered the storm.

So will we see recession this year? Here are the results my recent poll on X…

4) The Debt Spiral Continues

The US National Debt crossed above $39 trillion last week for the first time, more than doubling over the last 10 years.

The US National Debt has now increased by $2.8 trillion since the Debt Ceiling was raised last July. The Federal Government continues to borrow from our future to spend money like drunken sailors today. Next stop: $40 trillion.

5) Another Record High in US Household Net Worth

US Household Net Worth increased by another 9% in 2025, rising by over $14 trillion.

Total Household Net Worth now stands at a record $175 trillion, more than doubling over the past decade.

The primary drivers: rising US home prices (+88%) and US stock prices (+298%)…

And that’s it for this week. Thanks for reading!

Every week I do a video breaking down the most important charts and themes in markets and investing. Subscribe to our YouTube channel HERE for the latest content.

Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Read our full disclosures here.

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