The Week in Charts (4/17/26)

View the video of this post here.

This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts.

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The most important charts and themes in markets and investing…

1) Stairs Down, Elevator Up

The old saying in markets “stairs up, elevator down” has been flipped on its head this year.

It took the S&P 500 over two months from its peak in January to fall 10% and less than three weeks to surge back to new all-time highs with a vertical rally of 13%.

Today the index crossed above 7,100 for the first time.

What’s driving the market higher?

The expectation from investors that the war in Iran has effectively ended and that traffic in the Straight of Hormuz will soon return to normal.

The Energy sector gains and Consumer Discretionary sector losses since the start of the war have been completely erased with investors betting that the price of Oil and Gasoline will soon go back to where they were before the war began.

2) The Greatest Trick the Fed Ever Pulled

Overall US CPI moved up to 3.3% in March, its highest level since April 2024.

This was the 61st consecutive month that US CPI was above the Fed’s 2% target.

The greatest trick the Fed ever pulled was convincing the world 4% inflation didn’t exist.

3) Consumers Really Hate Inflation

The US consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan goes back to 1952. Incredibly, it has never been lower than it is today. This is a period that includes the stagflationary 1970s recession, the Global Financial Crisis and the covid downturn.

What are consumers so gloomy?

Substantial increases in their concerns over high prices. This much is clear: consumers really, really hate inflation. But the question, of course, is do they hate it enough to reduce their discretionary spending? That remains to be seen.

4) Booming Big Banks Kick Off Earnings Season

The 6 biggest US banks posted a record $45 billion in trading revenue during Q1, up 17% YoY.

All 6 posted earnings beats with strong net income growth over the past year:

• Citigroup: +42% increase in net income to $5.8 billion.
• Morgan Stanley: +29% increase in net income to $5.6 billion.
• Goldman Sachs: +19% increase in net income to $5.6 billion.
• Bank of America: +17% increase in net income to $8.6 billion.
• JPMorgan Chase: +13% increase in net income to $16.5 billion.
• Wells Fargo: +7% increase in net income to $5.3 billion.

Overall S&P 500 earnings are expected to hit another record high in Q1, rising 14% YoY.

5) A Few Interesting Stats..

a) Since 1949, the S&P 500 has returned +38% on average in the year after bear market lows. And that’s exactly what it gained in the past year after the tariff bear market of 2025. (video discussion)

b) The total Fertility Rate in the US has moved down to 1.57 births per woman, an all-time low.

c) The majority of US stocks (59%) underperformed Treasury bills over their lifetime and 45% ended with a negative cumulative return. (video discussion)

d) 29% of the wealth creation from US stocks in the past one hundred years came from just 10 stocks. (video discussion)

And that’s it for this week. Thanks for reading and have a great weekend!

Every week I do a video breaking down the most important charts and themes in markets and investing. Subscribe to our YouTube channel HERE for the latest content.

Disclaimer: All information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Read our full disclosures here.

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