The Week in Charts (7/7/25)
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The most important charts and themes in markets and investing…
1) Strength Begets Strength
The S&P 500 has gained 24% over the last 13 weeks, one of the biggest short-term rallies in history. Strong gains like this in the past have been followed by further upward progress, with the market rising an average of 22.6% over the next year. Strength begets strength.
2) A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats
Stocks 
Bonds Commodities Real Estate Crypto
Every major asset class is now green in 2025…
A rising tide lifts all boats.
3) Been Here For Years
Don’t call it a comeback – Tech’s been here for years.
After a rough start to 2025, the S&P Tech sector is now up 43% since the April 8 closing low ($XLK ETF).
As Tech is by far the biggest sector in the S&P 500 (33% weight), that’s helped the index stage one of the most remarkable recoveries in history.
It took less than 3 months from the April bear market lows for the S&P 500 to hit a new all-time high. This was the 2nd fastest recovery for US stocks in the last 75 years, trailing only the vertical rally in 1982 (note: including dividends).
The S&P 500 has now rallied 30% off of the April intra-day lows.
4) More Milestones, More All-Time Highs
The S&P 500 crossed above 6,200 last week for the first time, hitting its first 100-point milestone since January.
And the index closed out the week at another all-time high, its 7th of the year.
5) This Year vs. The Last 17 Years
International stocks are having a banner year so far, up nearly 20% including dividends versus a 7.5% total return for the S&P 500.
But given the dominance of US stocks over the past decade-plus, it would take many more years like 2025 to make a dent in the long-term performance gap.
Over the last 17 years, US stocks have gained 592% versus 140% for International stocks and 93% for Emerging Markets.
6) Say Goodbye to a July Rate Cut
The White House wants rate cuts today. The market’s message to them? Not so fast.
There’s now a 95% probability of no change at the July FOMC meeting, up from 79% a week earlier.
We saw the odds of a July rate cut plummet immediately after the better-than-expected jobs report.
What did it show?
147,000 US jobs added in June, above consensus estimates of 110,000 new jobs.
This was the 54th consecutive month of jobs growth in the US, the 2nd longest streak in history.
And the US Unemployment Rate unexpectedly moved down to 4.1%, the lowest since February.
But what about the “rising risk of recession” that was dominating headlines in April?
With the stock market back at all-time highs and the Atlanta Fed projecting a 2.6% increase in Q2 real GDP, that seems to be long forgotten.
The odds of a 2025 US recession on Polymarket have moved from 66% down to 22% over the past two months. This further strengthens the Fed’s case for remaining on hold, waiting to see if any inflationary pressures from the new tariffs start to build.
7) A Few Interesting Stats…
a) The US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for 59 months, by far the longest in history.
b) The S&P 500’s Dividend Yield has moved down to 1.25%, the lowest since 2000.
c) Buying a Tesla is becoming more and more affordable with each passing month. The average price of a used Tesla has moved down to a record low of $28,487. That’s 58% below the peak price from July 2022.
d) Here are the top 30 stocks in the S&P 500 over the past 30 years…
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