The Week in Charts (9/1/25)
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The most important charts and themes in markets and investing…
1) Records Are Made to Be Broken
The Dow moved back to an all-time high in August and history was made.
We’ve now seen 13 straight years with at least 1 all-time high, surpassing the epic 1989-2000 streak (12 years).
Records are made to be broken.
2) The Return of Easy Money
“The balance of risks appears to be shifting.”
So said Jerome Powell at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference.
What did he mean? The Fed is becoming more concerned about a slowing labor market than high inflation, indicating they are likely to cut interest rates again in September.
The bond market is now fully pricing in 2 rate cuts by year-end and 3-4 more cuts in 2026. That would bring the Fed Funds Rate below 3.00%.
Importantly, the odds of a September rate cut didn’t budge after the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) moved up to 2.9%, the highest level since February.
Which means that market participants believe the Fed will ignore the fact that inflation has averaged more than double their 2% target since the start of 2020.
What will happen to long-term interest rates when the Fed resumes their rate cuts?
That’s an important question without a clear answer.
For when the Fed started cutting rates last September, the 30-year Treasury yield was below 4%.
Today, it’s above 4.9%.
Translation: the Fed may be done with inflation, but inflation isn’t done with the Fed. Longer-term bond investors are more concerned about inflation today than when the Fed started easing a year ago.
3) Death, Taxes, and Printing Money
And concerned they should be, for the two biggest factors driving inflation – government spending and government creation of money – continue unabated.
The US Money Supply grew 4.8% over the last year, the biggest YoY increase since July 2022.
And with federal budget deficits still running at close to $2 trillion, we should expect more money printing to come.
4) Easing Is the Opiate of the Markets
Financial assets love nothing more than the prospect of easy money, particularly when that easing comes absent fears over a recession.
Speaking of which, the odds of a 2025 US recession on Polymarket have moved from 66% down to 8% over the past four months. That’s the lowest level this year.
2nd quarter real GDP was revised upward to 3.3%, and the Atlanta Fed is now projecting 3.5% growth in Q3.
The S&P 500 has now hit 20 all-time highs this year, crossing above 6,500 last week for the first time.
And volatility has been crushed, with the $VIX showing its biggest 20-week decline in history.
Every major asset class is now in the green on the year, led by Gold’s 31% gain.
5) Another Record Quarter For Nvidia
The AI infrastructure boom continues to exceed even the most optimistic expectations.
Nvidia’s revenues surged to a record $46.7 billion in Q2, up 56% over the prior year. Their revenue projection for Q3 is $54 billion, which would be a 54% YoY increase.
Net Income hit a record $26.4 billion in Q2, up 59% YoY. Net profit margins bounced back to 57%, the 2nd highest quarter for Nvidia on record.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said he anticipates the largest AI companies will spend between $3 trillion and $4 trillion over the next five years, with Nvidia capturing as much as 70% of that revenue. If that materializes, Nvidia – which is already the largest company in the world – could also become the most profitable.
6) Housing Market Flatlines
Home Price Appreciation in the US has flatlined as affordability remains near record lows, inventory levels continue to build, and Sellers outnumber Buyers.
7 cities in the 20-City Case-Shiller Index are now showing negative YoY returns and 7 cities are also showing negative 3-year returns.
The average US home sold in July spent 43 days on the market, the longest since 2015.
US Home Prices fell in 39 out of the top 50 metro areas in July, the most on record with data going back to 2012.
A shift appears to be brewing in the US housing market.
7) A Few Interesting Stats…
a) S&P 500 profit margins moved up to 12.5% in the 2nd quarter, their highest level since 2021.
b) The US collected a record $28 billion in customs duties in July 2025, which was 4x higher than the same month in 2024.
c) US Auto Insurance rates have increased by 94% over the last decade, far above the 35% increase in overall consumer prices.
d) US companies are projected to buy back over $1.1 trillion in shares this year, another all-time high. The biggest single purchaser? Apple @ $100 billion.
e) 3 years ago, the average price of a used Tesla was over $36k higher than the average price of all used cars. Today, the average price of a used Tesla is lower than than the average price of all used cars.
And that’s it for this week. Thanks for reading!
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