Welcome Friends, 

Here’s an assortment of posts shared this week on Trends with Friends. Let’s dive in…

TOO MUCH GRIFT AND TOO LITTLE CRAFT

Howard Lindzon shared a summary of his closing activities in Italy. He writes, 

Time is under appreciated when it comes to building brands.

Of course these Italian brands do invent/develop their own technologies/processes and put technology to work in their products and business.

In the US though the mix of technology, money and culture make things move very fast. But I believe something changed/broke with web 2.0 and ZIRP. The mobile/social web and ZIRP sped things up to a tipping point of bad habits, bad cap tables, bad practices and bad behavior. This is a theme I have been fleshing out on our weekly ‘Trends With Friends’ podcast.

There seems to be a lack of enjoyment and pride that has come with this speed and sloppy practices.

The old saying Rome was not built in a day has been replaced by ‘move fast and break things’. There is too much ‘grift’ and too little ‘craft’ in America right now.

Read Lindzon’s latest here.

THIS WEEK IN AI

Michael Parekh reviews OpenAI’s latest departures and big cap tech’s recent developments in this week’s AI Summary.

It’s a must read. 

THIS WEEK IN CHARTS

Charlie Bilello comments on interest rates, the S&P 500’s record high, consumer health, mortgage rates and more in his weekly chart review. 

He writes, 

The Easing Cycle Has Begun

The Fed started off the easing cycle with a bang, cutting interest rates by 50 bps to a new range of 4.75-5.00%. This was the first rate cut in the US since 2020 and brings to an end the tightest monetary policy since September 2007.

What comes next?

More cuts.

The Fed is forecasting a year-end Fed Funds Rate of 4.25-4.50% while the market is pricing in a more dovish 4.00-4.25%. In 2025, the cuts are expected to continue, with Fed Funds Rate moving down to 2.8% by the end of the year.

HOW TO THRIVE THIS WINTER

Winter is coming. Phil Pearlman provides a guide to Thrive During the Long Cold Winter.

Here’s the money quote, 

For the next 50 days, we will lose more than 2 minutes of sunlight per day and it will get noticeably colder.

The colder weather and shorter days can negatively affect our health and we risk giving up some of the gains we might have made during the warmer months. 

We spend less time outdoors and in the sun, our mood and energy levels sink, and we tend to move less and gain weight.

THREE MILE ISLAND

Ted Merz dives into the reemergence of Three Mile Island. Merz mentions, 

Last week’s announcement prompted me to drill down on the landscape for power in general and nuclear in particular. Since the emergence of Generative AI two years ago, we’ve heard about the urgent need among tech companies for cheap, reliable power.

The Three Mile Island deal underscored that in a dramatic way.

I ran an analysis using SigTech’s MAGIC application, an AI powered system used by quants.

MAGIC forecast AI-driven data centers will consume 200 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity annually by 2025. Keeping up with demand could require as much as $20 billion in annual energy spending.

The huge increase is driven by advanced GPU usage. Training a large AI model like GPT-3 consumes about 1,300 megawatt-hours (MWh), a significant increase in energy usage.

Read Ted’s full post here.

BUILDING BRANDS

Building Brands is the theme of Tadas Viskanta’s Saturday linkfest. Here’s a sneak peek… 

TRENDS WITH NO FRIENDS

Trends With No Friends sifts through the noise and discovers stocks above $1B market cap with high relative strength and low social following.

The publication shares 52-Week Highs and Lows sorted by followers on Stocktwits. 

Why is high relative strength and low social following important?

Stocks that are outperforming tend to continue to outperform. Stocks that have a low social following are, by definition, undiscovered by the crowd. Stocks that have both Relative Strength and Low Social Following can really outperform as more investors discover them.

This week, Trends with No Friends featured… 

Otis Worldwide ($OTIS), Hamilton Insurance Group ($HG), U-Haul ($UHAL), Belden ($BDC), Sylvamo ($SLVM) and more.

THIS WEEK’S EPISODE

And in case you missed it… Howard Lindzon, Michael Parekh, JC Parets and Phil Pearlman discuss Strength in China, Tesla, Apple’s Next AI Play and more on the latest episode of Trends with Friends. 

Tune in today.

GET IN TOUCH

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