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NEWS
Three Things Are Sure: Death, Change, and Tariffs

Source: tenor

Happy tax day! The market fell slightly, shaking off the weekend’s tariff talk, studying earnings results with a return to calm: at long last, it was almost a normal news day.

For all you bears out there, there was still negativity, dw. 

On Monday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 formed a ‘death cross’ after their 50-day MAs moved below their 200-day MAs for the first time since 2022. The last time this happened, the market fell 11% before the 50 broke back above the 200, almost a year later. 👀

Today’s issue covers United making room for a recession, banks, brokers, and JNJ mostly beating earnings, and other moves. 📰

Here’s the S&P 500 heatmap. 4 of 11 sectors closed green, with technology (+0.79%) leading and consumer discretionary (-1.32%) lagging.

Source: finviz

And here are the closing prices: 

STOCKS
Fly United Fly (Unless The Economy Tanks) ✈️ 

United Airlines broke a trend we did not know existed Tuesday when it gave two separate forward-looking earnings expectations for the year: one normal and one with the “r-word.”

The airline posted its best quarter in five years, adjusted to $0.91/share on revenue of $13.2 billion. The firm’s success sent the stock higher nearly 7% after hours and rubbed off on the airline industry, sending even twice-beaten-down Delta up almost 4%.

There was one glaring warning. United provided a ‘Stable Environment Scenario’ that tracks the firm toward full-year earnings potential up to $13.50/share. It also provided more sinister guidance based on a Recessionary Environment Scenario, which amounts to an entire quarter less of earnings at the high end. ⚠️ 

Source: United SEC filing

Bloomberg TV hosts said they had never seen anything like it before, and the strangeness of what seems like such an expected recession might lead other firms to give double-sided guidance through the rest of the reporting season.

The firm also said it would slash its domestic capacity starting in the third quarter by 4%.

Big If True:

The two-part outlook actually makes some cents. Firms going into this earnings season have to face a volatile short-term market and juggle predictions of consumer demand and trade prices with daily changes of tariff scenarios. Worse, they have to face their shareholders and decide to tell them about the future. Unfortunately, if your CEO doesn’t have Truth social alerts on for the president, you’re NGMI.

Some firms, like Delta, held back their predictions. Others, like JP Morgan, gave no specific expectations. Instead, heads like Chief Jamie Dimon warned of struggle ahead on their investor relations call. No matter how an executive team decides to handle it, one thing is for sure: Tariffs are not going anywhere yet. The Trump administration said they have about 15 proposed deals on the table from (hopefully) multiple countries. 115 more to go; 83 days left.

Meanwhile, trade disputes with China are already hurting U.S. firms: Boeing sank 2% today after President Xi ordered China to halt imports or purchases of Boeing Planes. 🛫

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EARNINGS
Banks and Pills Beat Expectations 🏧 

UAL reported alongside banks today that each tried their best to impress the bearish market. Lucky for the largest of the financial institutions, the Wall Street Journal reported that investment banks have made a killing on tariff worries, running trades with heightened fear in the market even before Trump announced Liberation. Here’s how three banks and a broker performed:

Bank of America ($BAC +4%): Bank of America shares climbed after its Q1 report beat estimates. Revenue climbed 6% YoY, EPS nearly hit $1, and lower interest rates helped its Net interest Income climb from lower deposit costs.

The firm said credit losses also rose, and Chief Brian Moynihan said the bank faces a changing economy in the future. CFO Alastair Borthwick told reporters on a call that “our research team doesn’t believe we’ll see a recession.”

Citigroup ($C +2%): Citigroup shares climbed after the firm beat with their Q1 report, showing EPS of $1.96 on revenue that climbed 3% YoY to $21.59 billion. CEO Jane Fraser said the bank was going to perform well no matter the macro scenario. She added that after trade imbalances and structural shifts are behind us, “the U.S. will still be the world’s leading economy, and the dollar will remain the reserve currency.”

PNC ($PNC +0.4%): PNC climbed after earnings beat, but revenue did not quite break Wall Street expectations. The firm showed revenue rose 6% in their first quarter, but not enough to break the $5.48 billion analyst mark.

CEO Bill Demchak said market uncertainty impacted their capital markets activity, but “expenses remained well-controlled.” The lender’s delinquencies rose 4% to $1.4 billion.

Interactive Brokers ($IBKR +0.255): Shares of the broker-dealer fell 8% after hours, reporting a Q1 adjusted earnings miss of $1.89/share, compared to estimates closer to $2. Revenue beat expectations, and the firm announced a four-to-one stock split, but it is one sign that not everyone can take advantage of tariff stock volatility.

Even in spite of the one-day fall, Stockwtits users remain bullish on the stock. 🫡 

Source: Stocktwits

Big Pharma Might Have Big Problems

Drugs: the next White House tariff talk show. The administration said Tuesday it launched a “probe” to see how they should tax imports on pharmaceuticals. Without clear tariffs yet, here’s how JNJ reported this morning:

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ -0.5%): JNJ shares fell despite posting earnings above estimates. On sales of $21.89 billion, the firm posted an adjusted EPS of $2.77. Sales in the U.S. climbed 6% to $12.31 billion.

The firm lowered its full-year guidance, calculating its January acquisition of Intra-Cellular Therapies and estimated costs from Trump’s tariffs.

“There is a reason why pharma tariffs are zero,” J&J CEO Jaquin Duato said on the firm’s conference call. “Because tariffs can create disruptions in the supply chain leading to shortages.”

The pharma firm expects $400 million in tariff costs this year; let’s see if the White House agrees. 🩹 

STOCKS
Other Noteworthy Pops & Drops 📋️ 

Rocket Lab ($RKLB +10%): The California-based aeronautics firm climbed after the U.S. and the UK awarded it contracts to provide hypersonic test launch capability. The firm said it received a $46 billion contract from the U.S.

Pfizer ($PFE +1%): On Monday, Pfizer halted the development of its oral GLP-1 candidate after one case of possible liver toxicity. Some analysts think the failure could be a windfall for smaller firms like Structure Therapeautics ($GPCR) or Viking Therapeutics ($VKTX). 

Nvidia ($NVDA -5% Post Market): In a Truth Social post, President Trump praised Nvidia’s U.S. AI infrastructure investment. After hours, the firm said it would lose $5.5 billion from costs in its H20 graphics card exports to China, now subject to a license fee.

Netflix ($NFLX +5%): The Streaming service Netflix climbed after receiving a UBS price target cut. According to a Wall Street Journal report, the firm said Monday it is looking to double revenue and hit a $1 trillion market cap by 2030.

Lucid Group ($LCID -4%): EV firm Lucid is on track to launch its midsize electric SUV in 2026, Reuters reported, citing company executives. Senior vice president Derek Jenkins said the company is currently on track to launch an SUV with a $50,000 price tag next year.

Ford ($F -3%): Auto companies fell after a downgrade on the sector to ‘neutral’ from Barclays in light of tariff impacts.

Hyundai Motor ($HYMTF +6%): Korean automaker Hyundai Chief José Muñoz told Bloomberg he expects car prices to remain steady for months despite tariffs. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives warned in March that current 25% auto tariffs could add $10,000 to average car prices.

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Trends With Friends: The Ethereum Story 🎞️ 

Howard, Michael, Phil, and Tom are joined by special guests Chris Temple and Zach Ingrasci, the filmmakers behind “The Ethereum Story.” This jam-packed episode explores macro madness, market sentiment, and crypto’s conflicted future.

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WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋

Economic data: Retail Sales (8:30 am), Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 am), Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 (1 pm), and Fed’s Powell Speaks (1:15 pm). 📊

Pre-Market Earnings: ASML Holding ($ASML), Abbott Laboratories ($ABT), U.S. Bancorp ($USB), Prologic ($PLD), Travelers Companies ($TRV). 🛏️

After-Hour Earnings: Alcoa ($AA), Kinder Morgan ($KMI), CSX ($CSX). 🎧

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls and more straight from the Stocktwits app or website. You’ll find them on the calendar page and individual symbol pages once they’re set to begin! We’ll see you there. 👍

Links That Don’t Suck 🌐

🥳 Join Stocktwits in NYC for the hottest night in social finance. April 30th, The Stand at Union Square. We’ll see you there!

🍎 iPhone Fold rumored to cost over $2000

👀 EU Expects US Tariffs to Stay as Talks Make Little Progress

⚠️ Nvidia Says New Limits on China Exports to Cost $5.5 Billion

😨 Bank of America Ordered to Pay $540M in FDIC Lawsuit, But Avoids $2B Fine

📺️ Zero-day options are fueling the unprecedented volatility on Wall Street amid tariff chaos

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