Weekend Forecast: Cold With A 50% Chance Of Pain 🩹
Presented by
OVERVIEW
Weekend Forecast: Cold With A 50% Chance Of Pain 🩹
Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:
Source: Santiment
And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:
Source: TradingView
NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Crypto News 📰
📈 Chainlink Digital Asset Insights: Q4 2024
Stablecoin yields skyrocketed, DeFi borrow rates soared, and everyone got excited to earn 15%. Chainlink’s new CDY Index tracks all this madness so you don’t have to rummage through a hundred dashboards. And yes, they’re basically showing how DeFi can pay more than your sad little treasury bond, but with 10 times the complexity. Chainlink.
🚀 ARK Invest’s ‘Disrupt Everything’ Playbook For 2025
They’re betting on AI, robotics, and blockchains to merge like a late-night Frankenstein experiment, reshaping entire industries. They even see reusable rockets and multiomic sequencing as the next big frontier, because why not throw space travel and gene editing in the mix? If it all goes according to plan, get ready for robot taxis, stablecoin-powered stores, and 3D-printed everything. Ark Invest.
💰 Trump Media’s Bitcoin ETF Crusade
Trump Media just slapped “Truth.Fi” on a series of Bitcoin ETFs and SMAs to prove they’re serious about “America First” investing. Their DeFi ally, World Liberty Financial, wants a “strategic crypto reserve,” while Donald Jr. does cameo appearances hyping the future of digital assets. CoinPaper.
🏦 More States Want To Hoard Bitcoin Like It’s Canned Food
Kentucky, Missouri, and Iowa are the newest states to say, “Why not stockpile BTC?” They’re following Utah and Arizona, which are already passing bills to keep “digital gold” next to actual gold in their treasuries. If more states join the party, you might end up paying local taxes in satoshis sooner than you think. CoinStats.
🏛️ Congress Has Big Plans for Stablecoins
Lawmakers want to corral stablecoins under tight regulations to keep the dollar on top. Their proposals include a two-year ban on sketchy “self-backed” stablecoins, setting a blueprint for a nationwide stablecoin regime. If it passes, you’ll see fewer half-baked token experiments and more institutions trying to issue the “officially blessed” digital dollar. eCoinimist.
SPONSORED
Trade Meme Coins in Seconds!
-
Spot.dog is the Robinhood of Crypto!
-
Trade Meme Coins in Seconds on the Spot iOS App.
-
Don’t miss out— you’re one tap away!
*3rd Party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Stocktwits. See disclosure here.
ON-CHAIN ANALYTICS
Update On Tueaday’s MVRV Levels 🟩
On Tuesday, we looked at the MVRV readings for BTC, ETH, ADA, DOGE, and XRP. Now it’s Friday, the market’s had some time to stew, and it’s time for a follow-up. 🛣️
Spoiler: no major meltdowns or moonshots, but there are a few subtle shifts worth noting. Here’s the short and sweet update.
What MVRV Tell Us Right Now
Bitcoin
BTCUSD 7-Day MVRV – Click to enlarge.
Still hovering just under zero MVRV, now around -0.3% or so. Nothing dramatic has changed since Tuesday. BTC is tiptoeing around minor losses, which means there isn’t much of a cushion if the market decides to take a tumble.
The short-term outlook stays Slightly Bearish until there is a deeper negative reading that signals a real bounce setup.
Ethereum
ETHUSD 7-Day MVRV – Click to enlarge.
ETH’s MVRV has edged up a bit, hanging around -2.5%. That’s negative, but not negative enough to get the “deep value” crowd excited. It’s mildly uncomfortable, but not excruciating.
Short-term outlook remains Slightly Bearish as we wait for a more compelling discount (think -10%) to lure in bottom-feeders.
Something slightly bullish: there is a divergence between the MVRV and price action – the MVRV is moving up while prices are sitting flat to moving only slightly lower.
In other words, the crowd’s mood is shifting from “please make it stop” to “maybe this isn’t so bad.”
Cardano
ADAUSD 7-Day MVRV – Click to enlarge
ADA’s MVRV is still in the red, hovering near -7%. This zone tends to be where pain turns into opportunity. The negativity suggests sellers are tired, and opportunists are likely circling.
Short-term outlook stays Bullish unless it magically rockets back into positive territory and ruin the contrarian setup.
Dogecoin
DOGEUSD 7-Day MVRV – Click to enlarge
DOGE’s MVRV flipped from +1.94% to around -3%. Translation: short-term holders went from mild profits to mild losses. That’s usually a better setup for a bounce.
Short-term outlook shifts to Slightly Bullish, given that holders in the red are less likely to panic-sell at this point.
XRP
XRPUSD 7-Day MVRV – Click to enlarge.
XRP’s MVRV sank further into negative territory (somewhere around -8% or -9%). Deeper losses mean more potential upside if the market stops having a mood swing.
The short-term outlook remains Bullish, bolstered by the logic that heavy unrealized losses can snap back quickly if buyers step in.
NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Metaverse, NFT, & Gaming News 🎮️
🎮 SKALE in 2024: Gaming, AI, and Zero Gas
SKALE racked up an eye-popping 615 million transactions and 47 million wallets in a single year, proving that “scaling solutions” might not be just a buzzword. Free transactions let gamers hoard in-game loot without bankrupting themselves on fees. Now they’re eyeing 2025 for more epic growth, so expect the devs to keep slamming energy drinks and pushing code. SKALE.
🐸 BRETT x Reactive: The Meme Coin Actually Doing Something
They took a typical meme token and strapped on real-time leaderboards, automated NFTs, and a trading competition—for 35 million in volume in a month. No bribes, no ridiculous APR, just a bunch of degens duking it out for on-chain bragging rights. Turns out, hype plus actual engagement can be a winning formula. Reactive.
🏦 Hedera’s Asset Tokenization Studio
Hedera just rolled out an open-source kit that turns real-world goodies (stocks, bonds, you name it) into digital tokens. It’s loaded with compliance checks, partitioned asset features, and a diamond-resolver pattern for easily upgrading your logic. Think of it like a 3D printer for assets—minus the plastic dragons, plus a boatload of legal disclaimers. Hedera.
NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
DeFi, DEX, and Lending Protocol News 🏦
⚡ 1inch Cross-Chain Swaps Add ZKsync
1inch is letting you bounce tokens across different chains without bridging, and now ZKsync is in the mix. Faster trades, lower fees, zero bridging drama—makes you wonder why you’d ever want to do it the old way. By bundling transactions with cryptographic magic, you get quick swaps while Ethereum does its paranoid security checks in the background. 1inch.
🤖 DeFAI: When Bots Invade DeFi
The marriage of AI with decentralized finance promises to let you buy tokens as simply as you order pizza. Instead of random half-baked UIs, AI might spot rug pulls and suspicious transactions before you throw your money into them. The dream: DeFi so easy your grandma can do it, minus all the Ponzi vibes. Arbitrum.
🌉 Real World Assets Meet DeFi
Tokenizing real estate, bonds, and other “boring” stuff is bridging TradFi with decentralized finance. Polymesh, among others, want to make 3 a.m. trades of your office building shares downright normal. As regulation nightmares loom, they’re hoping compliance-friendly blockchains will keep the grown-ups happy while still letting you do 24/7 asset swaps. Polymesh.
LINKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🔗
⚡️ CleanSpark reports 120% revenue surge as Bitcoin marginal cost improves
🙀 Cats won’t be banned in Scotland, the government confirms
🧑🎤 SEC signals shift: Grayscale’s Solana & Litecoin ETFs
🌐 World of Warcraft finally tackles the housing crisis
🐕️ Robot dog sprints into history books by breaking speed records
🌊 Crypto market wavers as US jobs report signals slowing economy
⭕️ Polkadot’s 200% surge in transactions—can it overtake Ethereum?
Get In Touch 📬
Follow our social channels for great, real-time content on Stocktwits and Twitter. And check out our YouTube channel for in-depth video content! 📲
Email me (Jonathan Morgan) your feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧
Want to sponsor this newsletter and reach hundreds of thousands of crypto enthusiasts? Reach us here. 👍
Terms & Conditions 📝
Securities Disclaimer: STOCKTWITS IS NOT A TAX ADVISOR, BROKER, FINANCIAL ADVISOR OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. THE SERVICE IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TAX, LEGAL, FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND NOTHING ON THE SERVICE SHOULD BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER TO SELL, A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY, OR A RECOMMENDATION FOR ANY SECURITY. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. You should only invest risk capital, and not capital required for other purposes. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal and financial situation. You should also consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. The Content is to be used for informational and entertainment purposes only and the Service does not provide investment advice for any individual. Stocktwits, its affiliates and partners specifically disclaim any and all liability or loss arising out of any action taken in reliance on Content, including but not limited to market value or other loss on the sale or purchase of any company, property, product, service, security, instrument, or any other matter. You understand that an investment in any security is subject to a number of risks, and that discussions of any security published on the Service will not contain a list or description of relevant risk factors. In addition, please note that some of the stocks about which Content is published on the Service have a low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float. Such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information. Read the full terms & conditions here. 🔍
Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in ADA, LTC, IMX, WMT, COPI, MIN, AGIX, ALGO, DOGE, ZEC, AVAX, XLM, XTZ, and NEAR. 📋
