When Charts And Chains Collide ⛓️
OVERVIEW
When Charts And Chains Collide ⛓️
Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:
Source: Santiment
And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:
Source: TradingView
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Technical & On-Chain Together 🤝
I’ve had numerous requests over the past few months to do a newsletter that combines technical and on-chain data into a single outlook. My old school technical analyst and trader brain loves this stuff. 💘
Today, we’re looking at three tickers – Ethereum, XRP, and Dogecoin – through the lens of one technical system and four on-chain metrics. Each piece tells a different part of a story. Together, they give you something closer to the full picture.
The Tools
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo – The technical side. This Japanese system gives you trend direction, momentum, and support/resistance levels all in one view.
90d-180d Realized Cap HODL Wave – This measures what percentage of the network’s realized value is held by crypto that last moved 90-180 days ago. Think of it as tracking the “conviction test” cohort – people who bought 3-6 months ago and haven’t sold. If this band is expanding, those holders are staying put and aging into longer bands. That’s accumulation. If it’s contracting, they’re either selling or that crypto is aging out faster than new entries are coming in.
180-Day Mean Coin Age – The average age of crypto that has moved in the last 180 days. Rising mean age = older crypto moving, or crypto aging because it’s not moving. Falling mean age = younger crypto dominating activity.
Network Realized Profit/Loss – When crypto moves, did it move at a profit or a loss relative to when it was last acquired? Sustained positive readings mean holders are taking profits. Sustained negative readings mean holders are realizing losses.
Percent of Total Supply in Profit – Exactly what it sounds like: what percentage of the circulating supply is currently worth more than when it was last moved? Above 95% is historically overheated – everyone’s in profit and profit-taking becomes rational. Below 50% is capitulation territory.
Let’s see what they’re saying about ETH, XRP, and DOGE. 👇️
STOCKTWITS
Cryptotwits Podcast – New Episode! 🥳
You get not one, but two bald men in our latest crypto podcast. 👇️
Latest Stocktwits Media Drops
🏈 TrueOdds – NFL Worried About Prediction Markets?! Rams–Seahawks Pick, Nike Earnings & Jake Paul–AJ
📺️ StocktwitsTV – Jobs Report Shock: Only 50K Added — What It Means for Rates, Defense & Housing Plays
🏪 Retail Edge – What’s Moving Markets in Early 2026?
💻️ The Howard Lindzon Show – Long Degeneracy: Why Robinhood, Coinbase, and Platforms Will Keep Winning
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Ethereum: The Chain Says One Thing, The Chart Says Another 🤷
ETHUSD Daily Chart – Click to enlarge.
ETH’s daily chart looks like hell. 🔥
Price spent a week stuck inside the Cloud – never a good sign – and finally broke down through the bottom on Thursday. We’re now trading below the Tenkan-Sen ($3,132) and Senkou Span A ($3,121), with only the Kijun-Sen ($3,040) standing between current price and a more serious technical breakdown.
But here’s where it gets interesting: the Chikou Span has been using the candlestick bodies from 26 periods back as a support shelf since January 6. Hidden bullish divergence is forming on the Composite Index, and the DPO refuses to drop below zero. The chart says breakdown, but the momentum internals aren’t confirming it yet.
Now let’s look at what’s happening on-chain.
ETH On-Chain Data – Click to enlarge.
The 90-180 Day Cohort Isn’t Budging
The Realized Cap HODL Wave for the 90-180 day band has expanded from around 9% in mid-October to 15.5% in mid-December. That’s significant. These are the people who bought during the summer and early fall rally – the ones who could easily be underwater or barely in profit right now. They’re not selling. They’re aging into longer hodling bands.
Supply in Profit: Down, But Not Out
Percent of total supply in profit dropped from the high-80s in late October to about 62% now. That’s a meaningful decline, but it’s not capitulation. Historically, ETH bottoms print below 50% supply in profit, often much lower.
Uncomfortable, yes. Time to panic? No.
The Loss Realization Is Telling Us Something
Network Realized Profit/Loss went deeply negative between December 15-17, with some printing $30-50 million in realized losses. That’s weak hands getting flushed. Meanwhile, the 90-180d wave kept expanding through this period.
That means ETH moved from people who couldn’t take the heat to people who could. Looks more like accumulation than distribution.
Mean Coin Age Says the Adults Are Still Home
The 180-day Mean Coin Age dropped sharply on November 23 – from 77 days down to about 68 – but has since recovered to 72 days. Younger coins are active, sure, but the older holdings aren’t fleeing. The network’s holder composition remains relatively mature despite the volatility.
Outlook: Cautiously Bullish
The Ichimoku breakdown is real and shouldn’t be ignored – price is below the Cloud and that matters. But the on-chain data isn’t confirming a broader distribution event. The 90-180d cohort is holding and growing, losses are being absorbed by stronger hands, and supply in profit has room to compress further before hitting historical capitulation zones.
The Chikou Span and the divergence between price action and the Composite Index suggest this breakdown could be a fake out rather than the start of a larger move down. 👍️
STOCKTWITS
Poll: What Role Will Crypto Play In 2026? 🤔
Four days left to vote 👇️
Click here to vote!
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
XRP: The Chikou Span Doesn’t Lie 🧑⚖️
XRPUSD Daily Chart – Click to enlarge.
Before we get into the on-chain weeds, I want to highlight something about the Ichimoku system that never gets old: the Chikou Span.
The Chikou Span is nothing more than current price shifted back 26 periods. Sounds almost too simple. But despite that simplicity, it responds to the same support and resistance levels as current price action.
Case in point: that January 5th breakout candle. Strong, convincing, pushed above the Cloud. No follow-through. Why? Look at where the Chikou Span was at the same moment – halted dead at the top of the Cloud (Senkou Span A).
Since the 5th, XRP has pushed back inside the Cloud. But it’s now sitting on a cluster of Ichimoku support levels: Tenkan-Sen at $2.119, Kijun-Sen at $2.093, and the bottom of the Cloud (Senkou Span A) at $2.04.
Worth noting: the Composite Index hit a high on January 5th not seen since mid-July 2025 – making it the second-highest daily reading since November 16, 2024. No bullish or bearish divergence currently exists between price and the Composite Index. The Detrended Price Oscillator remains above zero.
Between now and January 11, if XRP closes at or above $2.093, it fulfills one of the most sought-after bullish setups in the Ichimoku system – the Ideal Bullish Ichimoku Breakout. Bears don’t get excited until the Chikou Span closes below the candlestick bodies AND price is below the Cloud. That doesn’t happen unless XRP prints a daily close at or below $1.80.
Now onto the on-chain data:
The 90-180 Day Cohort Is Leaving
Unlike ETH, where the 90-180d Realized Cap HODL Wave has been expanding, XRP’s is contracting. It rose from around 13% in mid-October to peak near 22.5% in early December, but has since declined to about 19.9%.
The people who bought 3-6 months ago are either distributing or aging into longer holding bands. Given what we see in the profit-taking data, distribution is the more likely explanation.
Massive Profit-Taking Events
The Network Realized Profit/Loss tells a clear story: XRP holders are selling into strength.
January 1st saw $1.6 billion in realized profits – a single-day profit-taking event that dwarfs anything else on the chart. Then January 5th (the failed breakout day) printed $159 million in realized profits, followed by another $83 million on the 6th.
When price rallies, XRP holders are taking the exit. That’s distribution behavior.
Supply in Profit: Elevated
Percent of supply in profit spiked from around 70% to 85% on January 6th during the breakout attempt, and has since settled back to 82%. That’s elevated and within a range where profit-taking is rational and expected.
Compare this to ETH sitting at 62%. XRP holders have more reason to sell, and the data shows they’re acting on it.
Mean Coin Age: Stable
The 180-day Mean Coin Age has been relatively stable around 73-76 days, currently sitting at 74 days. This is the one metric that’s not flashing a warning. The broader holder base isn’t fleeing – it’s the more recent buyers taking profits into strength while longer-term holders stay put.
Outlook: Neutral
The Ichimoku setup is legitimately interesting. XRP is sitting on a dense support cluster, the DPO is above zero, no bearish divergence exists, and there’s a defined path to triggering an Ideal Bullish Breakout by January 11.
The play here is to wait for confirmation. A daily close at or above $2.093 by January 11 changes the bullish or bearish outlooks: that’s a high-probability long entry with the Ichimoku system backing it. A break below $2.04 (Senkou Span A) with weak follow-through from buyers, and the on-chain distribution thesis takes over.
Until one of those triggers hits, this is a watch-and-wait setup. 👀
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Dogecoin: The Chain Is Screaming What the Chart Is Whispering 😱
DOGEUSD Daily Chart – Click to enlarge.
DOGE dipped below the Cloud on the 8th and has since returned inside it. The Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are both clustered in the $0.135 zone and acted as support yesterday and today. 💹
But the most interesting thing on the Dogecoin chart right now – and arguably the most supportive oscillator condition out of all the tickers we’ve covered – is the Composite Index. There was a huge spike higher recently, but what matters is the breakout above what had been a clear resistance level.
That level is currently being tested as support. If it holds, you’ve got a momentum structure that’s confirmed bullish.
I DOGE holds the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen as support, closes above the bottom of the Cloud, and the Composite Index confirms that former resistance as new support, there’s room for big swings higher.
Let’s see if the chain agrees.
The 90-180 Day Cohort Is Growing Fast
This is the standout metric. The Realized Cap HODL Wave for the 90-180d band has expanded from around 7% in early October to 15.3% as of January 8th. That’s more than doubling in three months.
These are the buyers from the late summer and early fall who rode the volatility and didn’t sell. They’re aging into longer holding bands now, which is textbook accumulation behavior.
Supply in Profit – Right at the Capitulation Line
Here’s where it gets interesting. Percent of supply in profit has been hovering just above 50% for weeks. It touched 50.1% on December 31st and has been dancing around that threshold ever since, currently sitting at 54%.
We’re either at the tail end of capitulation or about to see a final flush. Either way, this is an accumulation territory, not distribution.
Persistent Loss Realization = Weak Hands Exiting
The Network Realized Profit/Loss chart is almost entirely red for the past two months. Day after day of realized losses – $105 million on January 6th alone, $49 million on January 4th, and consistent smaller losses throughout December.
Holders who bought higher are selling at a loss, transferring their DOGE to new buyers who are then holding (hence the expanding 90-180d HODL wave). Weak hands to strong hands.
Compare this to XRP, where the January rally triggered massive profit-taking ($1.6 billion on Jan 1). DOGE holders are eating losses and DOGE is going to people who aren’t selling.
Mean Coin Age – Steadily Rising
The 180-day Mean Coin Age has climbed from 66 days in early December to nearly 80 days now. This is a slow, steady grind higher – crypto is aging because it’s not moving. The network’s holder base is getting more mature by the day.
This metric confirms what the HODL wave is showing: The crypto being sold is getting absorbed by buyers who then sit on it.
Outlook: Bullish
The chart and the chain are aligned here.
This is what accumulation looks like. Losses being realized, crypto moving to stronger hands, those hands holding, and the supply-in-profit metric compressing toward the capitulation floor without breaking.
The risk is a decisive break below 50% supply in profit with accelerating losses – that would signal capitulation isn’t done. But as long as DOGE holds the Tenkan-Sen/Kijun-Sen cluster and the Composite Index confirms support, the path of least resistance is higher.
Of the three assets we’ve looked at, Dogecoin has the most supportive on-chain structure. The chart says ‘watch for confirmation.’ The chain says ‘accumulation is happening.’ 🧠
LINKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🔗
👍️ Solana Rallies While Bitcoin Stalls Near $91,000 Ahead Of Trump Tariff Ruling, Jobs Data
🏇 Kawasaki Is Actually Sending That Robot-Horse into Production
Get In Touch 📬
Email me, Jonathan Morgan, feedback; I’d love to hear from you. 📧
Follow me on Stocktwits 🫂 And Sponsor this newsletter 😎
Terms & Conditions 📝
Securities Disclaimer: STOCKTWITS IS NOT A TAX ADVISOR, BROKER, FINANCIAL ADVISOR OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. THE SERVICE IS NOT INTENDED TO PROVIDE TAX, LEGAL, FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND NOTHING ON THE SERVICE SHOULD BE CONSTRUED AS AN OFFER TO SELL, A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY, OR A RECOMMENDATION FOR ANY SECURITY. Trading in such securities can result in immediate and substantial losses of the capital invested. You should only invest risk capital, and not capital required for other purposes. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy, or any other product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal and financial situation. You should also consult an attorney or tax professional regarding your specific legal or tax situation. The Content is to be used for informational and entertainment purposes only and the Service does not provide investment advice for any individual. Stocktwits, its affiliates and partners specifically disclaim any and all liability or loss arising out of any action taken in reliance on Content, including but not limited to market value or other loss on the sale or purchase of any company, property, product, service, security, instrument, or any other matter. You understand that an investment in any security is subject to a number of risks, and that discussions of any security published on the Service will not contain a list or description of relevant risk factors. In addition, please note that some of the stocks about which Content is published on the Service have a low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float. Such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information. Read the full terms & conditions here. 🔍
Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLC, IMX, XTZ, NEAR, HBAR, ALGO, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋
