The Bigger Picture, Sunday, August 16, 2026 We have emphasized through this AI Tech Wave that the most important economic debates in AI keep coming back to one question: what does demand do when the price of a thing collapses, or when the supply of a...

Anthropic & OpenAI prep for their mega-AI IPOs: Anthropic and OpenAI are ramping up their preparations ahead of their planned mega-AI IPOs later this year and next respectively. Both have filed confidentially with the SEC. Anthropic, last privately...

Today’s theme is ‘For Better or for Worse’. The vow phrase, and it always applies to our AI companies, because the biggest moves they make are commitments: made up front, with the outcomes only knowable later. Especially at today’s pace of this AI Tech...

This Sunday and Monday I went up to the macro level on the AI Compute buildout in a 2 part series: Elon’s mega AI data center supply ambitions (part 1) on Sunday, and the ‘Dwarkesh’ Compute Demand bull case (part 2) on Monday. Today, a part 3 at the...

Today’s theme: ‘Through the Roof’. And sometimes through the floor. The valuation pendulums of this AI Tech Wave. Mr. Market is swinging hard in both directions right now, sometimes in the same day, and three companies today are good case studies of the...

As mentioned last week, Google’s AI bench is being re-constituted fast post recent top-level changes. Last week it was three senior changes on the same day: DeepMind Founder/CEO Demis Hassabis stepping up to chairman and chief scientist. Google...

Today’s theme is ‘Going with the Flow’, and I mean it as a compliment. This AI Tech Wave is moving faster than almost any tech wave I have had the opportunity to study since the PC era of the late seventies. The best operators are not fighting the...

The mega-AI IPO parade has long had a marching order this AI Tech Wave. Elon’s SpaceX/xAI went first earlier this year, blew past two trillion dollars in early trading, and then reminded everyone what the trip from private to public feels like when the...

Today’s theme is ‘Gaming the System’ for AI, and I mean it in both senses. The skeptics use the term as an accusation: circular financing, manufactured demand, risk quietly moved onto other people’s books. All real financial engineering concerns, seen...

We have tracked ‘RAMageddon’, the AI-driven global memory crunch, since it turned existential for the smaller tech players, and through yesterday’s demand-side look at compute prices. Today the story arrives where every scarce commodity story...