AI PC? Microsoft and Nvidia can do that
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CLOSING BELL
The market closed in the green Monday after hitting records, but there were warning signs the week may turn tenuous for equities. Unless your fave stock makes AI PCs!
Late Monday afternoon, Tehran said it was moving to close the Strait of Hormuz again, shutting down talks with the U.S. because Israel is conducting military operations against Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.
Oil jumped 7%, and the president said he “couldn’t care less” but called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to halt troops heading to Beirut.
What retail really watched was the AI PC market. HPE ripped after proving enterprise AI demand is landing in servers, while Meta and Alphabet got punished for the other side of the same story: gigantic spending plans that still need a clean payback path. Microsoft and Nvidia dropped a preview for a new Surface PC Sunday, but retail did not react. Anthropic also filed confidentially for an IPO with the SEC.
Today’s Briefing:
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After the Bell: HPE dragged its 2028 goals into 2026, while Credo showed great AI growth can still get sold
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Stocks: Meta tested paid AI subscriptions, and Microsoft teamed with Nvidia for a Blackwell-powered Surface
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Trending on Stocktwits: Retail chased space squeezes, lithium headlines, and the broader AI hardware trade
AFTER THE BELL
HPE Finds the AI Button 🖥️
Hewlett Packard Enterprise gave Wall Street the AI server quarter it wanted Monday night, then skipped the usual “long-term story” routine and pulled its 2028 targets into 2026. Subtle as a server rack through drywall. The stock set a fresh year high.
The RIP: $HPE ( ▲ 9.2% ) rose 9% in regular trading and jumped roughly 39% after hours. Revenue grew 40% to $10.68B vs. $9.79B expected, adjusted EPS hit $0.79 vs. $0.53, fiscal 2026 revenue growth guidance rose to 29%-33%, doubling while its AI backlog topped $6.3B.
The AI PC trade is two years early, HPE proving Dell’s numbers last week were not a flop. The firm raised free cash flow guidance to at least $3.5B. Servers were the headline, but networking matters too. The $HPE stream is bullish, message volume jumped +278%, and 11.3k watchers are arguing whether this is an AI infrastructure rerate or a backlog-and-margin test wearing a party hat. 🧠
Join $HPE: AI rerate or blowoff →
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@mrtatham: “$HPE well this is interesting….do I walk with the $18K or go degenerate and hold, first comment wins.” (post)
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@MB6288: “$HPE Never in the history of this stock has it had a 50% run in a 24 hour period. Never. If you don’t think t…” (post)
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@Slycooper1998: “$HPE here we go please give me 60 so I can call out of work tomorrow” (post)
Credo Beats, Still Bleeds 🔌
Credo Technology, the AI data-center connectivity supplier, delivered the kind of growth most companies would frame and hang in the lobby. Traders sold it anyway.
The RIP: $CRDO fell roughly 16% after hours. Q4 GAAP EPS rose 338% to $0.92, revenue climbed 157% to $437M, and fiscal 2026 revenue more than tripled to $1.3B. Q1 revenue guidance was $465M-$475M, with GAAP gross margin of 66.9%-68.9%.
The selloff says the market wanted more margin protection after a huge run, especially with Q1 operating expenses guided up to $167.6M-$171.6M. The $CRDO stream is neutral, message volume is high, and 9.3k watchers are arguing over whether the post-earnings dump is a gift or the first valuation check.
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@Feroce_Research: “ALAB had solid earnings and was sold off… to later run 100% ever since” Post
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@Superfly100: “$CRDO selloff looks massively overdone… Beat on revenue, Beat on EPS, Raised guidance” Post
Bring it to $CRDO: gift or gravity →
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STOCKS
Meta’s AI Toll Booth 🧾
Meta is trying to charge for the AI buildout investors keep yelling about. The company introduced the idea for paid plans for Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Meta AI last week, giving bulls a monetization answer.
The RIP: $META ( ▼ 5.07% ) fell 5% Monday. Facebook Plus and Instagram Plus cost $3.99 monthly, WhatsApp Plus $2.99, and Meta AI tiers $7.99 and $19.99. Meta plans up to $145B in 2026 capex after Q1 ad revenue of $55B and other revenue of $885M.
The tension is that subscriptions are a rounding error until proven otherwise. Meta’s ad machine is still enormous, but investors are now grading every new product by whether it can help fund the AI data center bill.
With rough math, the social giant would need 300M+ users all paying for each layer of the new subscription plans to make up for its massive capex costs, so until that happens it is bailing out a sinking capex ship with a tablespoon of water at a time. 🌊
The $META stream is bullish, message volume is normal, and 597k watchers are focused on whether the selloff is a broken AI capex story or a clean dip near $600.
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@MAFFHEW_MCCONAGHEY: “$META call premiums are up because the market knows it’s a fire sale.” Post
Sound off in $META: toll booth or tax →
Surface Gets Blackwell’d 💻
CEO Jensen Huang holding two new Surface Ultras
Microsoft finally gave the AI PC crowd something with real teeth Monday, unveiling a Surface Laptop Ultra built with Nvidia’s Blackwell RTX GPU. The pitch is simple: if developers are going to run bigger AI workloads locally, Windows wants to be where that happens.
The RIP: $MSFT ( ▲ 2.28% ) rose 2% Monday, while $NVDA ( ▲ 6.26% ) jumped 6%. Surface Laptop Ultra includes up to 128GB unified memory, full CUDA support, 1 petaflop of AI compute, a 15-inch mini-LED display, and local support for models up to 120B parameters.
Weigh in on $MSFT: workstation or window dressing →
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TRENDING ON STOCKTWITS
Pops & Drops
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$SPCE ( ▲ 21.68% ) Virgin Galactic ⚡: surged +21% after squeeze chatter engulfed space stocks
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$LAC ( ▲ 5.76% ) Lithium Americas ⚡: jumped +16% after Zimbabwe banned lithium concentrate exports
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$MGM ( ▲ 16.08% ) MGM Resorts: surged +16% after People Inc. made its bid
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$ARM ( ▲ 15.73% ) Arm: climbed +16% after analysts chased AI CPU upside
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$CRM ( ▲ 9.68% ) Salesforce: popped +10% after earnings and buyback relief
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$ORCL ( ▲ 9.91% ) Oracle ⚡: climbed +10% after AI infrastructure demand widened
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$IBM ( ▲ 7.6% ) IBM: climbed +8% after Barclays launched bullish coverage
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$ABVX ( ▼ 2.22% ) Abivax ⚡: cratered -42% after buyout hopes got faded
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WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋
Macro: JOLTs Job Openings (2:00 PM ET), API Crude Oil Stock Change (8:30 PM ET). 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: $MOMO Hello Gr, $DG Dollar General Corp, $TIGR UP Fintech Holding, $GOTU Gaotu Techedu, $SIG Signet Jewelers Ltd, +1 more. ☀️
After-Market Earnings: $PANW Palo Alto Networks Inc, $ULTA Ulta Beauty Inc, $GTLB GitLab, $JFIN Jiayin Group Inc., $FIVE Five Below Inc, +4 more. 🌙
P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.
Get In Touch 📬
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