Altcoin Hodlers Find Comfort Knowing Everyone Else Also Looks Like They Licked A Battery 🔋
OVERVIEW
Altcoin Hodlers Find Comfort Knowing Everyone Else Also Looks Like They Licked A Battery 🔋
Here’s What’s Happening 👇️
Today’s top trending tickers: Stellar, NEAR Protocol, Internet Computer, Tezos, and Bitcoin
Biggest winners: $XLM ( ▲ 16.97% ) , $H ( ▼ 14.83% ) , $ICP ( ▲ 0.77% ) , $FIL ( ▼ 2.33% ) , and $SEI ( ▲ 0.84% )
Biggest losers: $WLD ( ▼ 8.56% ) , $SUN ( ▼ 5.42% ) , $ZEC ( ▼ 4.47% ) , $TON ( ▼ 7.12% ) , and $RENDER ( ▼ 12.34% )
Before we dive in, here’s the total crypto market cap and altcoin market cap charts:
Click to enlarge.
NEWS
SoFi ‘Disrupts’ Banking By Inventing Dollar That Works Exactly Like Dollar 🏦
SoFi launched SoFiUSD this morning, making it the first US national bank to put a 1:1 dollar stablecoin directly inside a banking app. It runs on Ethereum and Solana, is OCC-regulated, and rolls out to roughly 15 million SoFi members through early June.
And if it seems like there’s been a lot of stablecoin growth lately, you’d be correct.
So That’s A Big Number
The total stablecoin market hit a record $322 billion last week, larger than the foreign exchange reserves of 95 countries, including the UK, Canada, and the UAE. A dollar reserve pool bigger than most sovereigns can muster.
Tether alone holds roughly $141 billion in US Treasury exposure, ranking 17th among all global holders of US government debt, ahead of South Korea and ahead of entire countries like Germany and Israel.
Every time someone in Buenos Aires or Lagos converts local currency into USDT, the trade creates near-automatic buying pressure for short-end T-bills. And Apollo projects the sector hits $2 trillion by 2028, which would put stablecoin issuers ahead of Japan as the single largest foreign creditor to the United States.
Wait, That’s Not What…
I remember the days when stablecoins were a combination of easy access to dollars to trade and a way to get rid of the banking middle man.
What’s happening instead is banks absorbing the format. SoFi just handed JPMorgan, Citi, and BNY a working template – and handed the US Treasury a new buyer at a moment when China has cut its Treasury position by $86 billion over the past year and Japan is signaling a slow drawdown.
Yay for more dollar dominance.
NEWS
Stellar Holders Cautiously Optimistic Bag May Be Worth What They Paid In 2018 By 2030 🤯
Good Lord it’s happened. Something big has happened to one of the oldest crypto tickers out there.
After eight years in the wilderness, $XLM ( ▲ 16.97% ) just got handed the kind of partnership most layer-1s would mortgage their treasury to land. The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation – the post-trade backbone of global capital markets – announced today that DTC-tokenized assets will go live on the Stellar network in the first half of 2027.
But it’s not just Stellar, the deal is non-exclusive – DTCC explicitly called out a multi-chain strategy, so Ethereum and Solana will likely show up on the docket eventually. But Stellar got named first, and being named first matters.
Not-fun-fact: XLM has not printed a new all-time high since January 2018. The chart has spent the better part of a decade looking like a long, tired sigh. Today, it finally has something to point at.
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NEWS
You, Me, & The MVRV 📊
The MVRV – Market Value to Realized Value – is the ratio between an asset’s market cap and its realized cap, the on-chain sum of every coin’s value the last time it moved. It functions as an aggregate profit multiple for the average holder: above 1.0, the network sits on unrealized gains; below 1.0, it’s underwater.
The Composite MVRV mixes the 180-day, 90-day, and 60-day ratios into one arithmetic mean. The shorter windows make it responsive; the longer one stabilizes it. The result captures mid-term positioning – the holders actively pricing the market right now.
For traders, it’s a kind of gauge, thermometer or ‘heads up’. Readings below 0.80 historically mark cycle stress; the 1.0 crossover acts as a structural ignition line; sustained readings above 1.30 flag distribution.
Let’s get into it. 👇️
ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Bitcoin Recovery Officially Promoted To Recovery-Adjacent ❤️🩹
Click to enlarge.
I selected the starting point for Bitcoin’s composite MVRV on Sucktober (Octboer) 1, 2025. $BTC ( ▼ 2.55% ) 1.07 on October 2, kissed 1.0962 four days later, then took the elevator shaft down to 0.6992 by February 5 – a stress-zone reading typically associated with people deleting Coinbase from their home screen.
There rwasa recovery to 1.0756 by May 10, briefly putting holders back in the green. Then, with the unmistakable enthusiasm of a man checking his portfolio after his wife checked his portfolio, it slid back to 0.9800 today.
Of the 238 days in this window, BTC spent 162 in caution, 54 in profit, 22 in stress, and exactly zero in distribution. This is not a market handing out free money.
Lean: Neutral, with a bearish near-term slope.
ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Traders Holding ETH Since October Achieves Spiritual Enlightenment Through Suffering 🫡
Click to enlarge.
$ETH ( ▼ 2.63% ) spent October through early February rehearsing for a funeral and then attending one. From a peak of 1.1556 on October 6, the composite cratered to 0.6021 on February 5 – a stress reading deep enough that the chart needed a chaplain.
The post-trough rally peaked at 1.0255 on April 17, never quite making it back to the October highs, and has since rolled over with conviction. Current: 0.8952, 17 days below 1.0, and 12.7% off the recovery peak.
Of the 238 days in window, ETH posted 156 in caution and 53 in stress — meaning the typical Ethereum holder in this period was either nervous or unconscious.
Lean: Bearish.
ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
XRP’s Sideways Action Awarded Permanent Residency 🏠️
Click to enlarge.
$XRP ( ▼ 2.11% ) hit 1.0511 on October 2 and then took the slow walk to 0.5981 on February 5, the kind of bottom where Ripple bag holders develop hobbies.
The recovery peaked at 0.9480 on May 14 — meaning the rally never even kissed the 1.0 structural line, let alone crossed it. XRP has now been 141 consecutive days below 1.0, which in MVRV terms is less “cycle low forming” and more “extended residency.”
The 30-day net change is -0.0015 — sideways enough to be furniture. But the last two-ish weeks printed -0.083, suggesting the floor of this range is being tested again.
Lean: Neutral. Range-bound with a recent bearish thumb on the scale.
ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
ADA Recovery Crosses 1.0 For Two Weeks, Returns To Sender 🤦
Click to enlarge.
Oh man, $ADA ( ▼ 2.12% ) is one of the ugliest things out there. 1.0888 on October 2 and bottomed at 0.5841 on February 5 – a 46% MVRV. The recovery managed 1.0186 on May 10, briefly clearing the 1.0 ignition line before reminding everyone that if you hodl ADA (like me), you are not allowed to have happiness.
Of 238 days, ADA spent 124 in stress — over half the window — and just 8 days in profit. The chart that briefly looked like a recovery now looks like a recovery getting its retirement party.
For a network that wakes up every cycle promising peer-reviewed greatness, this is another vintage where the wine never quite turned.
Lean: Lean bearish. Recovery fading, structural prints unfriendly.
ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Uniswap Recovery Officially Stair-Stepped, Then Stair-Fell 🦄
Click to enlarge.
I honestly thought Cardano would be the ugliest thing here today, but $UNI ( ▼ 6.0% ) took the the trophy for that. I mean, not by much, but still worse than ADA.
Peak 1.2198 on November 10, trough 0.5306 on February 5 — the deepest stress print of any asset in this analysis here.
The post-trough rally was one of the best, reaching 1.0478 on May 10. Then the floor opened. 16.7% off the recovery peak in the last 7 days alone.
Oddly, the 30-day net change is still positive (+0.028), so this isn’t a chart that’s been bleeding for weeks. The fee switch isn’t going to vote itself.
Lean: Lean bearish. Sharp recent reversal off a fading recovery peak.
OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️
May 27
1703 – St. Petersburg is founded.
1851 – The world’s first chess tournament is held in London.
1905 – Russo-Japanese War – Battle of Tsushima – Japan soundly defeats the Imperial Russian Navy in the final battle of the Russo-Japanese War. It was the only decisive engagement ever fought between modern steel battleships.
1930 – The Chrysler Building opens in New York City, overtaking the Eiffel Tower as the world’s tallest building.
1937 – The Golden Gate bridge opens.
1941 – The British Navy sinks the Bismark.
1960 – Turkey’s democratic government is overthrown by a military coup.
1969 – Construction begins on Walt Disney World.
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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋
