CLOSING BELL
Bitcoin Reckoning

The market fell, big time Thursday, the tech and crypto sell off finally reaching its hands out to rip down every sector on the S&P 500 but utilities.

The headlines are horrific as the day started with job numbers. Challenger showed that layoffs in Jan skyrocketed 118% year over year, and the highest Jan total since 2009, with nearly half the pain coming from Amazon, UPS, and Dow.

Amazon, not to be outdone, said it was instead spending even more than Google on AI this year, a truly insane $200B in CapEx to reclaim its wobbling cloud provider crown from pretender to the throne Microsoft. Amazon was immediently punished after its post-market report, falling 9%, around the same as the decline from Google shares as trading began today.

Gold fell, silver fell, and Bitcoin was last seen bumping its head near $60k, as a death spiral of selling to cover leverage begot more selling to cover leverage. It’s near its highest ever oversold RSI, at the lowest price point since 2024. A year before that, it was trading as low as $15k. 😱 

As Tom Bruni, Stocktwits Head of Markets & Retail Investor Insights old our market updates group, expect a lot more to come down, and soon. It was the first down day for many consumer staples that were bid up for weeks.

“We’ll know the selling is close to done when the leading defensive stocks fall.”

AFTER THE BELL
Amazon’s AI Spend, Reddit Rolls in the Profits, MSTR is Diamond Hands 🛍️ 👽️ 💎 

Shares of $AMZN ( ▼ 4.42% ) plummeted 10% after-hours following a staggering $200B capital expenditure forecast for 2026. While the company crossed a historic $700B annual revenue milestone, the market is freaked out by how much it’s ending.

Amazon reported $1.95 EPS on $213.4B in revenue, narrowly missing the $1.97 earnings consensus despite a 14% top-line beat. A record 24% surge in AWS growth and a $716.9B full-year revenue total were overshadowed by a “capex black hole” as data center costs exploded.

“With such strong demand for our existing offerings and seminal opportunities like AI, chips, robotics, low earth orbit satellites, we expect to invest about $200 billion in capital expenditures across Amazon in 2026, and anticipate strong long-term return on invested capital,” CEO Andy Jassy said.

• Management’s commitment to spend $200B in 2026, well above the $146.11B estimate, which breaks down to $548M every single day. 🤑 🔥 

$RDDT ( ▼ 1.07% ) climbed 4% after delivering its first major post-IPO “smokeshow” quarter, characterized by surging ad revenue and a surprise capital return program. The platform is positioning itself to leverage user conversation for AI training.

Earnings of $1.24 per share crushed the $0.96 consensus, supported by a 70% revenue jump to $726M that outpaced the expected 54% growth. Advertising revenue spiked 75% to $690M as new AI-driven “Max” campaigns allowed brands to target subreddits with automated, high-conversion creative tools.

• The outlook: The board authorized its first $1B share buyback, signaling a shift toward institutional maturity and confidence in sustained free cash flow from its data-licensing and ad engines.

$MSTR ( ▼ 17.12% ) shares plummeted 17% following a disastrous fourth-quarter report where massive unrealized losses on its Bitcoin treasury overwhelmed its core software business. The stock has now lost more than 65% of its value over the last year.

The company posted a staggering GAAP loss of $42.93 per share, far deeper than the $20.99 loss expected by analysts, while revenue of $123M slightly beat consensus.

A net unrealized loss of $17.5B on digital assets drove the miss, as the average cost basis of its 713,502 BTC holdings is $76,052, looking like a high water mark as the coin tanks.

• The outlook: Despite the volatility, Michael Saylor reiterated an “indefinite horizon.” 🥴 

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ANALYST UPDATES
Google Wins Hearts and Minds of Analysts Despite Cash Spending Spree 🤖 

Google was trying to climb despite the red. As we talked about yesterday, Alphabet just became the first company to cross $400 billion in annual revenue, but the market is reeling from the price of admission.

Google is planning to spend up to $185 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026. That is ~$500 million every single day. Despite the massive $113.8 billion revenue beat, the stock is seeing a tug-of-war. Analysts are rushing to hike price targets, with Pivotal Research going to $420 and JPMorgan to $395. Check out some other target hikes:

MOAR EARNINGS
Misses Are Punished Harshly

Roblox shares soared 20% following a fourth-quarter sweep where the gaming platform crushed booking estimates and issued a bullish 2026 outlook.

Roblox reported bookings of $2.22B, easily topping the $2.09B consensus, while posting a narrower-than-expected loss of $0.45 per share vs. the $0.48 forecast. Daily active users surged 69% to 144M, while total engagement hours exploded 88% to 35B. Management raised its full-year 2026 bookings guidance to a range of $8.28B–$8.55B, well above the $8.05B analyst target, backed by $607M in quarterly operating cash flow.

Affirm was falling despite bragging about a major integration with QuickBooks Online. The stock was down 4% after the bell, as fears of a consumer credit crunch widened.

The Beat: Affirm delivered a decisive Q2 beat with $1.12B in revenue versus the $1.06B consensus, while Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) surged to $13.8B, crushing the $13.3B analyst estimate. But investors watched the widening credit losses at the BNPL, up to $214.2M.

Irene shares fell 8% after-hours following a major miss, as the market digested a radical pivot from Bitcoin mining toward a gigawatt-scale AI data center strategy.

IREN reported Q2 revenue of $184.7M, missing the $226.9M consensus, alongside a net loss of $155.4M as it accelerates capital-intensive AI builds. The miss was paired with the announcement of a new 1.6GW data center campus in Oklahoma, bringing the company’s total secured grid-connected power to over 4.5GW. Investors are pricing in how much that will cost.

TRENDING STOCKS
Market Movers

• $NVO ( ▼ 8.16% ) shares plunged after telehealth provider $HIMS launched a low-cost, compounded version of the newly released Wegovy weight-loss pill. The White House also plans to announce ‘TrumpRX’ soon, a brutal week that saw $60B wiped from its market value.

• $KELYB ( ▲ 251.16% ) witnessed a squeeze-like event today, with shares skyrocketing over 250% to hit $37.96 early in the morning. The move follows the transfer of a massive controlling interest that has completely reshaped the company’s governance and ownership structure.

• $SNAP ( ▼ 13.37% ) : Plunged after reporting a 3M decline in daily active users and issuing Q1 revenue guidance below Street estimates, overshadowing a Q4 earnings beat.

Winners and Losers

• $MCK ( ▲ 16.52% ) : Jumped as the healthcare giant benefited from strong volume trends and favorable pharmaceutical distribution tailwinds.

• $CPAY ( ▲ 11.56% ) : Gained following a robust quarterly performance characterized by organic growth in corporate payment solutions.

• $CAH ( ▲ 9.83% ) : Rose in tandem with the broader pharmaceutical distribution sector strength seen in peers like McKesson.

• $EL ( ▼ 19.19% ) : Tanked as the beauty giant faced continued headwinds in Asian travel retail and lowered its full-year outlook.

• $COIN ( ▼ 13.34% ) : Fell tracking a broader “risk-off” sentiment in the crypto market and declining spot prices for major digital assets.

• $CMI ( ▼ 10.73% ) : Slipped following a cautious 2026 outlook and concerns over cyclical cooling in the heavy-duty engine market.

ST MEDIA
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WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋

Macro: Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate delayed to next Wednesday, Michigan Consumer Sentiment. 📊

Pre-Market Earnings: $BIIB, $PM, $CNC, $PAA, $CBOE. ☀️

P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.

Links That Don’t Suck 🌐

😨 Last month was the worst January for layoff plans since 2009: Challenger

🏠️ Elon Musk can be questioned under oath in DOGE case, judge rules

💰️ Anthropic Hits Software Stocks Again with Opus 4.6 Launch

📺️ Big Tech CEOs seek to quell AI worries hammering software stocks

👀 How penis injections became a Winter Olympic talking point

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