OVERVIEW

Code Red: January 2026 Crypto Triage Report 🤕

So last Friday’s issue of the Cryptotwits newsletter, Your Official Guide to Who’s Worth Taking Home This February 💘, apparently slapped. You all really liked it. My inbox was flooded with “more of this please” and “finally, someone making this dumpster fire entertaining.” 🫂 

I hear you.

I’m going to keep these themed deep-dives to the end of the month / start of a new month. Why? Because if I do this every issue, it becomes a gimmick. A bit. A one-trick pony doing the same trick until you hate the pony and the trick.

Now, what is this issue actually about?

Back in late December 2025, I published a deep-dive on January seasonality – a stupidly comprehensive look at how nine crypto assets historically perform in January, what conditions precede the good months versus the bad ones, and what the setup looked like heading into January 2026.

Well, January 2026 is now in the books. The results are in. So this is the follow-up: here’s how it actually ended up.

Let’s get into it. 👇️ 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
PATIENT 1: Cosmos 🟢 

Status: STABLE – Transferred to Recovery Ward
January Close: $1.969 | Monthly Return: +1.78%

ADMISSION NOTES

Patient arrived in a state we can only describe as “technically alive.” December 2025’s monthly close represented the lowest point in ATOM’s entire existence – the crypto equivalent of flatlining in a ditch behind a Denny’s at 3 AM.

January’s +1.78% gain is less “recovery” and more “the corpse twitched and we got excited, played it safe and brought him in and turns out, he’s still kind of alive.”

PRE-INCIDENT ASSESSMENT vs. REALITY

The December analysis noted ATOM as “The Coin Flip” with a 50/50 split across nearly every metric. I flagged the double-red November-December setup as potentially bullish, citing the only prior instance producing a +41.36% gain.

DIAGNOSIS & PROGNOSIS

Patient did close green, snapping a four-month losing streak. However, calling this a “win” is like celebrating that your house fire only destroyed 98% of your belongings instead of 100%.

Cautiously optimistic. Patient has demonstrated a will to live, which is more than we can say for most of this horror show.

DID HISTORY HODL? ✅ PARTIAL WIN – Directionally correct on the double-red bounce, magnitude was… aspirational. 😶

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
PATIENT 2: TRON 🟢 

Status: STABLE – Under Observation (Legal Hold)
January Close: $0.286 | Monthly Return: +0.72%

ADMISSION NOTES

Patient arrived with what we’re calling “Suspicious Resilience Syndrome.” While the entire crypto ward was hemorrhaging value like a hemophiliac in a Gordon Ramsey knife factory, TRON somehow gained 0.72%. This would be cause for celebration if not for the circumstances.

COMPLICATIONS

Patient’s primary caregiver (J. Sun) became the subject of explosive allegations from a former associate regarding, shall we say, “extracurricular financial activities.” That stuff just came out this weekend.

PRE-INCIDENT ASSESSMENT vs. REALITY

The December analysis specifically flagged TRX as “The Anomaly” and noted it was “shady as fook.” There is a predicted a 75% win rate given the red Q4 + double-red setup, with a +15.44% average expected return.

DIAGNOSIS & PROGNOSIS

Patient survived, but we’re recommending a full toxicology screening and possibly a forensic accountant. But TRX is stable, in the way that a cockroach is stable after a nuclear blast. Not sure if we should be impressed or concerned.

DID HISTORY HODL? ✅ WIN – Called the direction correctly. Aaand gonna pat myself on the back for the “shady as fook” disclaimer that aged well. 👍️

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
PATIENT 3: BNB 🟡

Status: SERIOUS BUT STABLE
January Close: $780.8 | Monthly Return: -9.57%

ADMISSION NOTES

Patient presented with moderate lacerations consistent with “being in the wrong place at the wrong time.” Among the maimed, amputated and wounded, BNB showed the most resilience – like the one guy at the bar fight who only got a black eye while everyone else left in ambulances and pool cues sticking out of their spine.

PRE-INCIDENT ASSESSMENT vs. REALITY

The December analysis was bullish on BNB, citing a 100% historical win rate after red Q4. It explicitly called it “The Pure Contrarian Play” and said the setup was bullish.

DIAGNOSIS & PROGNOSIS

The 100% win rate did not hold. However, BNB’s -9.57% loss was the least bad among the casualties, suggesting the contrarian setup provided some degree of protection – just not immunity.

Patient should make a full recovery barring additional macro trauma. But judging by CZ’s actions on X that won’t happen.

DID HISTORY HODL?: ⚠️ PARTIAL MISS – Direction wrong, but relative outperformance acknowledged. 🤦 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
PATIENT 4: Bitcoin 🟡

Status: SERIOUS – ICU Monitoring
January Close: $78,648 | Monthly Return: -10.12%

ADMISSION NOTES

Patient recorded its lowest monthly close since October 2024 and extended its losing streak to four consecutive red months. The phrase “store of value” was reportedly heard being whispered mockingly by old boomers in the waiting room and even older guys who hang out in the locker room butt ass naked.

PRE-INCIDENT ASSESSMENT vs. REALITY

The December analysis explicitly warned about “The Green December Curse,” noting that after a green December, January follows with a loss 80% of the time. We called the setup “mixed” but leaned bearish given December’s trajectory.

DIAGNOSIS & PROGNOSIS

The Green December Curse activated exactly as predicted. Patient lost -10.12% – within the historical range of post-green-December damage. This is the crypto equivalent of my five year old “don’t touch the stove, it’s hot” and watching them touch the stove anyway.

Patient will likely recover, but the four-month losing streak suggests underlying systemic issues that require attention.

DID HISTORY HODL?: ✅ WIN – Bearish lean was correct. 🤷

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
PATIENT 5: XRP 🟡

Status: SERIOUS – ICU Monitoring
January Close: $1.6461 | Monthly Return: -10.60%

ADMISSION NOTES

Patient arrived with what we’re calling “Post-Pump Exhaustion Syndrome.” After a euphoric mid 2025 rally, XRP has now recorded four consecutive red months and hit its lowest close since October 2024. The CNBC “hottest trade of 2026” just seems mean.

PRE-INCIDENT ASSESSMENT vs. REALITY

The December analysis called the XRP setup “neutral,” noting the double-red prior months historically produced only a +0.22% average return. It specifically warned about “Where December Euphoria Goes to Die” and the dangers of post-pump scenarios.

DIAGNOSIS & PROGNOSIS

Patient performed almost exactly in line with the cautious neutral assessment. The -10.60% loss wasn’t the “Death Sentence” scenario (that required green December), but the muted expectations were appropriate.

DID HISTORY HODL?: ✅ WIN – Neutral/cautious stance was the right call.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
PATIENT 6: Cardano 🔴

Status: CRITICAL – Life Support
January Close: $0.2930 | Monthly Return: -11.94%

ADMISSION NOTES

Where do we even begin? Patient hit $0.437 mid-January – showing signs of recovery – before proceeding to collapse 33% to its lowest monthly close since November 2023.

Like watching someone climb out of a well, reach the top, and then voluntarily jump back in.

PRE-INCIDENT ASSESSMENT vs. REALITY

The December analysis labeled ADA “Boom or Bust” with high variance. It noted the average looked attractive (+16.82%) but the median was actually negative (-3.56%), warning that “a few monster wins are carrying everything.” Setup was “neutral to slightly bullish.”

DIAGNOSIS & PROGNOSIS

Patient chose “Bust.” Definitively. The -11.94% monthly return combined with the -33% drawdown from the January high represents a complete systemic failure.

Multi-year lows suggest deep structural damage. Patient may require extended rehabilitation or… alternative arrangements. Coroner on stand by just in case.

DID HISTORY HODL?: ❌ MISS – The “slightly bullish” lean was a miss. Should have weighted the negative median more heavily.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
PATIENT 7: Solana 🔴 

Status: CRITICAL – Ventilator
January Close: $105.48 | Monthly Return: -15.30%

ADMISSION NOTES

Patient arrived having recorded its fourth consecutive monthly red close and its lowest monthly close since January 2024. For an asset that was supposed to be “The Mean Reversion Monster,” SOL instead became “The Mean Reversion’s Victim.”

PRE-INCIDENT ASSESSMENT vs. REALITY

The December analysis flagged SOL with an 80% momentum reversal rate and a 100% win rate after red Q4. However – and this is critical – it specifically noted that December was green, and “the only instance of a green December preceded SOL’s lone January loss.”

DIAGNOSIS & PROGNOSIS

The December warning saved this analysis from being a total embarrassment. The green December override triggered exactly as cautioned, producing SOL’s characteristic reversal pattern – just in the wrong direction.

DID HISTORY HODL?: ⚠️ PARTIAL – The caveat about December’s green close was the correct hedge.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
PATIENT 8: Ethereum 🔴

Status: CRITICAL – Multiple Organ Failure
January Close: $2,238 | Monthly Return: -17.44%

ADMISSION NOTES

Patient has now recorded five consecutive red months. The silver lining? ETH didn’t hit 1+ year lows like Bitcoin did. Congratulations, you’re not the worst patient in the ICU. Here’s your participation trophy.

PRE-INCIDENT ASSESSMENT vs. REALITY

This one hurts. The December analysis was moderately bullish on ETH, stated “December’s color doesn’t matter for ETH” and citing a 75% win rate after red Q4. That didn’t happen.

DIAGNOSIS & PROGNOSIS

Well that outlook based on historical performance didn’t pan out at all. ETH did not demonstrate immunity to December seasonality – it got demolished with everyone else.

The “ETH is different” thesis requires significant revision. Patient has underlying conditions that need addressing before any recovery can be expected.

DID HISTORY HODL?: ❌ MISS – The bullish lean based on “no curse” was incorrect. ETH clearly caught the curse.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
PATIENT 9: Zcash ⚫️

Status: DECEASED – Time of Death: January 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC
January Close: $303 | Monthly Return: -40.64%

ADMISSION NOTES

Patient arrived via airlift from what witnesses described as “dude was high as f*ck on coke and won big then ran off a cliff. But he had a big smile.”

January 2026 represented ZEC’s worst month since June 2022, snapping a five-month winning streak with the kind of violence usually reserved for horror movies. Let’s put this in perspective: ZEC dropped more in January than most assets dropped all year.

THE SILVER LINING

From February 2025 lows near $25, ZEC is still up approximately 1,104%. So technically, if you bought the absolute bottom and didn’t sell the top, you’re still massively in profit. If you bought December 2025 and held through January… my condolences.

PRE-INCIDENT ASSESSMENT vs. REALITY

The December analysis was screaming about this one. It labeled ZEC “The Green Q4 Death Sentence” with a 0-for-3 historical record after green Q4. It warned: “This triggers every warning signal. Double-green Nov-Dec (0% win rate), massive green Q4 (0% win rate), and one of the biggest Q4 rallies in ZEC history.”

DIAGNOSIS & PROGNOSIS

Patient died exactly as predicted. Every warning signal fired. Every historical pattern triggered. Patient may reanimate in future cycles, as privacy coins tend to do. But for now, toe tag and cold storage. But I mean like a freezer where bodies go, not a wallet.

DID HISTORY HODL?: ✅ ABSOLUTE WIN – Performed as history suggest it would.

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLC, IMX, XTZ, NEAR, HBAR, ALGO, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋