Daily Chart Report 📈 Wednesday, August 14, 2024
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Today’s Summary
Wednesday, August 14, 2024
Indices: Dow +0.61% | S&P 500 +0.38% | Nasdaq 100 +0.09% | Russell 2000 -0.52%
Sectors: 7 of the 11 sectors closed higher. Financials led, gaining +1.22%. Communications lagged, falling -0.57%.
Commodities: Crude Oil futures fell -1.75% to $76.98 per barrel. Gold futures dropped -1.12% to $2,480 per oz.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index inched lower by -0.03% to a six-month low of $102.57.
Crypto: Bitcoin dropped -3.17%to $58,697. Ethereum fell -1.55% to $2,662.
Volatility: The Volatility Index dropped -10.55% to 16.20.
Interest Rates: The US 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.837%.
Here are the best charts, articles, and ideas shared on the web today!
Chart of the Day
This is a big spot for the S&P 500. Overlapping resistance levels, which distinguish between countertrend and legitimate buying, are at play here. The index is also attempting to fill in the Jobs Report price gap. $SPY $SPX @CMTAssociation #StockMarket pic.twitter.com/DrCIcVxSCb
— John Kolovos, CMT, CFA (@John_Kolovos) August 14, 2024
Today’s Chart of the Day was shared by John Kolovos (@John_Kolovos).
- The S&P 500 hasn’t closed lower since last Wednesday. It’s up nearly +5% since then, marking the best five-day rally since November, when the index was thrusting off the October 2023 low.
- John points out that $SPX is testing potential resistance at 5,450, representing the 50-day moving average and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent drawdown.
- If this were a countertrend move (bounce within a downtrend), it likely wouldn’t retrace more than two-thirds (61.8%) of its drawdown. Breaking this threshold (5,450) would prove that this has been a durable rebound.
Takeaway: After a sharp bounce, the S&P 500 has reached a confluence of potential resistance at 5,450. Reclaiming this level would open the door to a full recovery to all-time highs.
Quote of the Day
“It’s during pullbacks you get to see what a stock is really made of. Does it come bouncing back like a tennis ball or splat like an egg? The best stocks rebound the fastest.”
– Mark Minervini
Top Links
NDR: Market Digest, August 2024 – Unprecedented Times – Ned Davis Research
NDR examines how the Dow has historically performed when the incumbent doesn’t run for reelection.
Stock Market Analysis Brian Shannon Alphatrends 8/14/24 – AlphaTrends
Brian Shannon breaks down recent price action and some key levels to watch in the near term.
Big Changes in Sentiment – All Star Charts
JC Parets points out that the recent volatility has effectively shaken out the weak hands and reset sentiment.
VIX Spike, Subsequent Crash May Usher Short-Term Tailwinds – Schaeffer’s Investment Research
Rocky White examines how the S&P 500 has historically performed after a Vol crush.
Renaissance’s Jeff deGraaf Breaks Down What He’s Seeing in the Charts For Under-the-Surface Stocks
Jeff deGraaf offers his technical perspective on the current market environment.
Top Tweets
$SPY sellers may speak now or forever hold their peace.
pic.twitter.com/rdAY3OjF2R
— TrendSpider (@TrendSpider) August 14, 2024
The S&P 500 $SPY rebounded on the AVWAP from the YTD lows, shown in green, and it’s now pushing up against the AVWAP from the all-time highs, shown in red.
Classic pinch action.
• Bulls want to see a breakout here
• Bears want to see a rejection hereIt’s that simple. pic.twitter.com/M1gvbAnXfr
— Caleb Franzen (@CalebFranzen) August 14, 2024
$SPX It’s not about the pace of this bounce continuing.
It’s about how buyers respond to the inevitable pullback. pic.twitter.com/WOnONFgy3l
— Frank Cappelleri (@FrankCappelleri) August 14, 2024
back to home sweet home (middle of prior range)… pic.twitter.com/lVqAxJ5svt
— Linda Raschke (@LindaRaschke) August 14, 2024
$VIX 65 to 16 pic.twitter.com/aXvWqMv90r
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT
(@MikeZaccardi) August 14, 2024
It took only 5 tradings days for the $VIX to go from 40 to 20 last week – beating the 6 days in 2018. Outside of those events the other 9 occurrences avg 149 days: pic.twitter.com/pXggsnXGGJ
— Optuma (@Optuma) August 14, 2024
Going back to 1950, I found 29 other times the S&P 500 was up 4.5% or more in 4 days but all four days closed above the 200-day MA (like what we just saw).
This weeds out likely bear markets and sticks with looking at bullish trends like now, so more
to
.
Many have claimed… pic.twitter.com/OCrynjklYp
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) August 14, 2024
I thought the filing for an S&P Top 20 last week was interesting and somewhat a callback to when the Top 50 ETF arrived in 2005. Here’s a then and now of the top 20 names. No investment implications but rather a visual of index evolution and the ability to stay influential. pic.twitter.com/5KZDNUfer7
— Todd Sohn (@Todd_Sohn) August 14, 2024
The unwinding of the carry trade was a major component of the market drawdown, which by definition meant that the dollar would decline (at least against the Yen), the fact that the dollar is declining at all is to me a sign that there isn’t a lot of stress in terms of liquidity.… pic.twitter.com/PSHpSnsJU8
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) August 14, 2024
Gains from last Monday’s (8/5) panic lows…
Nvidia $NVDA: +30%
Bitcoin $BTC: +20%
Meta $META: +17%
Nikkei 225 $NIKK: +17%
Apple $AAPL: +13%
Netflix $NFLX: +13%
Amazon $AMZN: +12%
Tesla $TSLA: +11%
Nasdaq 100 $QQQ: +9%
Microsoft $MSFT: +8%
S&P 500 $SPY: +7%
Google $GOOGL: +4% pic.twitter.com/FyheNt1A3k— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 14, 2024
You’re all caught up now. Thanks for reading!
The post Daily Chart Report 📈 Wednesday, August 14, 2024 appeared first on The Chart Report.
