Thinking In Bets I want to start with a quote this week that sums up the way I think about the markets and investing from one of my favorite books. “What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a...

Here’s a preview of what we’ll cover this week:  Macro: PCE Adds Support For December Cut; How’s the Labor Market?; AI Is A Productivity Engine Markets: Growth Vs. Value; The EU’s War On Meta; How Far Can Netflix Drop?; Google Is Catching Up Fast;...

It Changed Everything I’ll admit something upfront. When I first started studying technical analysis, a lot of it felt… mystical. Lines on charts, patterns with funny names, people acting like they could predict the future off a triangle. I wasn’t...

Here’s a preview of what we’ll cover this week:  Macro: No Support For Doomers; Consumers Are Confident; Amazon’s Nightmare  Markets: The Bullish Trigger; Every Day Up…; Our Energy Pick for the AI Power Decade; Top Trade in Managed Care; Our Bet in...

A Voracious Change This week we really saw it — change. And more importantly, we saw it happen quickly. One thing I’ve said over and over is that in bull markets, it’s not the weakness itself that’s bullish in underlying uptrends. It’s the reversion...

Here’s a preview of what we’ll cover this week:  Macro: The U.S. Economy Keeps Defying the Bears; Rate Cut Odds Soar Higher; How was the Labor Market Data? Markets: The Dot Com Flashback; Time To Buy Quality; Fear Is Maxed Out; Software Vs AI...

Housing Holds the Key I ran through a mountain of charts on Thompson Two Cents Live yesterday. But if you want to understand the consumer right now, you only need one… housing. When you’re talking about consumer spending, you’re really talking about...

Here’s a preview of what we’ll cover this week:  Markets: Druckenmiller’s Next Moves; Are We In A Bubble?; The AI Data Center Opportunity at a Discount; The Real Bottleneck In AI; NCLH is a bargain Macro: December Rate Cuts?; Rate Cuts Can’t Save...

All Gas No Brakes Ep. 5 w/ JC Parets JC Parets is one of the most well-known technicians in the world and for good reason. He’s built a powerhouse research firm by using technical analysis to consistently stay positioned on the winning side of major...

Here’s a preview of what we’ll cover this week:  Macro: Consumer Credit Is Stable and Improving; Loan Demand Is Strong; AI-Driven Underwriting and Calibration Are Material Levers; Cruise demand is resilient and experience-led; Challenger’s Report Was...