OVERVIEW

Everyone Is Just Waiting For The CPI ⌚️

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Today’s top trending tickers: Keeta, RENDER, TROLL, Cardano, and Mask Network

Biggest winners: $BEAT ( ▲ 10.37% ) , $CC ( ▲ 1.31% ) , $ZEC ( ▼ 4.76% ) , $USDC ( ▲ 0.01% ) , and $USD1 ( ▲ 0.05% )  

Biggest losers: $DEXE ( ▼ 10.47% ) , $HYPE ( ▼ 9.27% ) , $WLD ( ▼ 4.04% ) , $TON ( ▼ 2.66% ) , and $UNI ( ▼ 3.94% )  

Before we dive in, here’s the total crypto market cap and altcoin market cap charts:

Click to enlarge.

NEWS
It’s All About The MVRV Today 🧠

Today’s whole issue is about one number: the composite MVRV. Quick refresher for anyone who hasn’t sat through one of these before.

MVRV – Market Value to Realized Value – is the ratio between what a crypto is worth right now and what the average holder paid for it. 

• Above 1.0, the network is sitting in profit.

• Below 1.0, it’s underwater.

It’s the closest thing on-chain has to checking whether the room is up or down on its bar tab. The composite blends the 180, 90, and 60-day versions into one reading, which keeps it responsive without letting a single bad day jerk it around.

So why drag it out today?

Because we’ve just lived through some very big drops, some unbalanced recoveries, and what could turn into a shuffling stretch where nothing seems to want to move.

That’s exactly the kind of moment when the MVRV can be a big help. It can help figure out what we’re looking at: caution that’s still bleeding, a recovery with real legs, or plain apathy.

Let’s dive in. 👇️ 

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
DOGE Cost Basis Collapses So Hard Holders Are Technically Closer To Breakeven, Somehow 🐶 

Click to enlarge.

Riddle: how does a ticker make a brand-new low and get healthier at the same time? Ask $DOGE ( ▼ 1.82% ) . A fresh low beneath the February bottom (that’s going to be a theme by the way) yet the composite MVRV sits a fat 0.24 above where it was at that February trough of 0.615. New low on the screen but dramatically less pain on-chain.

DOGE changed hands cheap, the average cost basis collapsed, and now even a lower price leaves holders nearer breakeven than they were in the dead of winter. It’s the financial version of selling the furniture so the repo guy has a lighter load.

For the record, Dogecoin’s composite MVRV also staged its strongest bounce in recent memory, tagging 1.113 in May before the June flush hauled it back.

Lean: Neutral.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Cardano Logs 9 Profitable Days Out Of 252 💓 

Click to enlarge.

Let’s just rip the bandage off: $ADA ( ▼ 1.42% ) is down 80.6% from its October high. Composite MVRV reads 0.692. Everyone who bravely bought the dip in February is down another 30% for their courage.

132 of 252 days in the stress zone. Nine, count them, days in profit the entire window. If this chart were a heart monitor, the room would already be very quiet and the family is walking in to say good bye.

One flicker of hope though: despite the new price low, the composite still sits above its February trough of 0.584. Cost basis has reset so violently that the network is less in Losersville at a lower price than it was at a higher one. Textbook capitulation.

Lean: Bearish.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
ETH Underwater 30 Straight Days; Validators Begin Developing Gills 🏊️ 

Click to enlarge.

$ETH ( ▼ 3.43% ) is doing that thing where a chart stops looking like a dip and starts resembling a topographic map of a canyon. The composite is 0.766, down 64% from October, riding 30 consecutive days underwater with a 30-day slope of -0.25.

I keep waiting for a definite floor, but there isn’t one yet. The composite still hasn’t broken under its February low of 0.602 – which means, and I hate that this is technically accurate, it can get worse before it merely matches its own worst.

The thing that kills any ‘buyers are stepping in’ story: every timeframe in the composite MVRV (180-day, 90-day, 60-day) is below the 1 level. The 60-day, the 90-day, the 180-day – all under 1.0.

This isn’t a knife you catch. It’s a knife with a LinkedIn page.

Lean: Bearish.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Bitcoin Logs Eight Months Without A Single Euphoric Day 🪙 

Click to enlarge.

Here’s a magic trick. $BTC ( ▼ 2.14% ) is sitting at $62,300 – the same price it bottomed at on February 5 – yet its composite reads 0.843, a full 0.14 higher than it printed at that February low. A chunk of supply has reset to a cheaper cost basis, so the average holder is less buried than the last time we stood on this exact step.

That’s the good part. The rest is a grind: down 50% from October, 15 straight days under 1.0, a 30-day slope bleeding at -0.23, and not one day in distribution all window. Nobody’s been greedy here in eight months.

So I’m watching one number and one number only – that $62K value area. Hold it with this divergence intact and things get interesting in a hurry. Lose it, and the divergence becomes a line in the eulogy.

Lean: Neutral.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
XRP Composite MVRV Under 1 For 154 Straight Days 📆

Click to enlarge.

Five months. That’s how long XRP’s composite has sat below 1.0 – 154 consecutive days of the average mid-term holder being underwater. At some point “temporary” files for permanent residency.

TThe most recent buyers are taking the worst beating, and the freshest money is leading the decline instead of cushioning it – which is a special kind of suck compared to $XRP ( ▼ 3.14% ) ’s peers .

Down 62% from October. The composite MVRV topped out at 0.948 and didn’t so much as graze the 1.0 line before quitting. Zero days in distribution; no euphoria to unwind, because there wasn’t any.

Lean: Bearish.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
QNT So Coiled Analysts Reclassify It As A Spring 🪗

Click to enlarge.

I haven’t gotten a chance to really touch on $QNT ( ▼ 3.23% ) in any capacity recently. And it’s a Stocktwits users’ favorite.

The composite MVRV is 0.895 and has spent the better part of a year doing nothing dramatic – 199 of 252 days idling in the caution band, a grand total of three in stress.

But oh man, the the 180-day, 90-day, and 60-day MVRVs are all bunched and stacked on top of one another between 0.89 and 0.90. An insanely coiled spring.

Lean: Neutral.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Aster MVRV Returns From Launch-Era 7.0 To Earth, Applies For Citizenship In The Caution Zone 🛬

Fair warning before you read the chart: $ASTER ( ▼ 2.05% ) is a baby. Tickers this young print junk MVRV early – with barely any history, all three windows collapse onto the same silly number.

The composite deflated out of launch euphoria, bottomed at 0.884 in April, briefly poked back over 1.0 to 1.057 on May 30, and now rests at 0.911. I expected this one to still be bouncing off the walls. Instead it’s sitting in the corner avoiding eye contact, but not in a social awkward way, but a ‘I’m a creeper’ kind of way.

Lean: Neutral.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Worldcoin MVRV Goes Vertical, Briefly Achieves Liftoff Velocity 🤯

This guy is in a, um, world of it’s own. Pun 100% intended.

After spending 169 days below the 1 line and bottoming at a miserable 0.564 in November – $WLD ( ▼ 4.04% ) ’s composite just went parabolic. It’s at 1.482, up an absurd +0.62 in 30 days, riding a +40% price rip over two weeks.

And the MVRV structure is made up of the good stuff: the 60 and 90-day MVRV’s (1.58 and 1.60) tower over the 180-day (1.27). Recent buyers loaded with gains, new money hauling the whole thing higher instead of getting steamrolled. And 1.48 lands dead center in the hot zone, that 1.20–1.50 band that historically coughs up the strongest forward returns.

Lean: Bullish.

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
TON’s MVRV Windows Form Perfect Descending Staircase, Every Step Going Nowhere Good 📉

$TON ( ▼ 2.66% ) built a staircase, and it only goes down. All three base MVRVs that make up the composite are in downward move.

The composite is 0.942, freshly under 1.0 at 6 days and counting,drops that fast without a specific catastrophe attached, and there isn’t one here – just relentless selling.

It’s down 40% from October, after the composite topped at a frothy 1.661 on May 6 and immediately began apologizing for it. This one makes me want to keep both hands in my pockets and my wallet in another room.

The steps, so far, only lead one direction right now.

Lean: Bearish.

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋