Government Actions Adding Kryptonite to US and China AI Ambitions. ARD #83
Post-Memorial-Day restart. Four ARD podcast episodes this week, starting today with Episode 83.
Today’s theme: government actions in both the US and China likely to have unintended negative consequences for each country’s ambitions to advance its position in AI and technology in the years to come.
Both the US and China are in a self-proclaimed AI space race. And both are doing things this week that shoot themselves in the foot in many ways. Each is a small change on its own — but each lands as Superman strapping more kryptonite trinkets onto his person, as he goes on daily ‘save the world’ missions.
Three Takes today, all on the policy side. Plus a Gadget AI on the battle over AI health-fitness trackers between Google, Apple, and Whoop.
US Green Card Path Changes — Tech Industry Implications
The administration’s announced changes to the path to legal immigration in the US via Green Cards. Big implications for the US tech industry, and beyond.
The Wall Street Journal ran the policy-mechanics explainer this week — “Green card policy changes, explained” — walking through how the new rules reshape the path from temporary visa to permanent residency.
For longtime readers — I framed the structural reality that US tech is truly immigration-powered in AI-RTZ #692, “US Tech/AI is Truly Immigration Powered”. That’s the substrate for today’s Take.
MP Take: Depending on how these rules are implemented, this change alone could tilt the US/China AI wave against the US very quickly. Recognize that over half of green card applicants come from China and India. The new rules will require applicants go back to their countries to apply for green cards. For most applicants this adds five to ten year waits outside the US at a minimum for their applications to be processed. WHILE NOT WORKING FOR THEIR COMPANIES SPONSORING THEM FOR THE GREEN CARDS IN THE US. For the past few decades those years were spent by these applicants doing useful work for their employers, primarily in science and technology. If enforced this way, this means a sharp curtailment of the technology talent that has powered US technology waves and wealth creation for generations. Recognize that Nvidia founder/CEO Jensen Huang was born in Taiwan, Elon Musk in South Africa, Google co-founder Sergey Brin from the former Soviet Union. They and so many more became valued US citizens via the five to ten year path to green cards, and then the additional five plus years to US citizenship. Somewhere out there is an alternate universe being created because of these policies. Immigration is America’s superpower — and this is like asking Superman to wear a kryptonite ring every day he goes about saving the world. This will be a development the tech industry in particular will be watching closely.
China Expanding Travel Curbs on Top AI Talent
China is expanding travel curbs to top AI talent at private Chinese companies.
Bloomberg broke this development this week — “China expands travel curbs to top AI talent at private firms” — laying out the scope of the new restrictions and the private-sector companies affected. Founders and executives of AI startups now face restrictions on overseas travel — conferences, business partner meetings, and more.
For longtime readers — I covered China’s post-Manus/Meta Red Chip changes in AI-RTZ #1075, “China’s Post-Manus/Meta Red Chip Changes” — the relevant comparative-framing backcat.
MP Take: Big implications for China’s private companies and tech talent in working with colleagues around the world. The impact goes way beyond AI into other areas of science, healthcare, and other technology domains. This can balkanize the global progress in an array of science and technology areas — particularly as China has become one of the biggest creators of new technologies and patents around the world. Add its status as developing over half the world’s AI researchers, and being the second-largest AI market in the world, and this development becomes more notable as it unfolds. China’s version of strapping kryptonite trinkets on its own AI ambitions. Definitely one to watch closely.
US AI Regulatory Requirements Despite EO Delay
US regulatory requirements on AI technologies — despite the announced delay. The Executive Order timeline slipped, but the underlying regulatory pressure didn’t.
The Information reported the development this week — “White House delays AI Executive Order event” — covering the deferral and what it signals about the back-and-forth between US tech and the government on AI guardrails. The original 60-to-90-day model-submission rule got softened to 14 days then deferred. The underlying regulatory pressure didn’t go away.
Two backcat references frame today’s Take — AI-RTZ #1051, “Anthropic’s Peek-a-boo of Claude” — Mythos cybersecurity concerns (the canonical Mythos-cybersecurity-concerns piece that’s now front-and-center in the regulatory conversation), and AI-RTZ #935, “Battle Over AI Regulatory Executive” (the prior framing on the regulatory back-and-forth between US tech and the government on the EO).
MP Take: This development will be a back-and-forth matter between US tech companies and the government, as they scale up their AI models beyond Anthropic’s Mythos, OpenAI’s GPT 5.5, and others. Now that cybersecurity and other concerns are becoming front and center, the US government will feel the need to step in with guardrails and procedures that are likely to slow innovation if not curtailed. Another kryptonite trinket on Superman’s person. AI’s utility is bigger than anything in any other technology in my entire life — and these are overreactions, in fair bit also done because the founders of these companies keep talking about the existential, the major risks of AI, which all exist. But there are ways to manage them without scaring the bejesus out of everybody, and to do it in a methodical way, in partnership, not exaggerating the risks.
Gadget AI — The Battle Over AI Health-Fitness Trackers (Google · Apple · Whoop)
The wearables-and-rings competitive frame from last Friday’s Oura IPO Gadget AI extends into today’s category-wide read on AI health-fitness trackers — and where Google, Apple, and Whoop sit in the mix.
MKBHD dropped a comparative video review this week — “AI Health Fitness Trackers: Google vs Apple vs Whoop” — walking through the new Google Fitbit Air, the Apple Watch healthcare suite, and the Whoop subscription-and-hardware model side-by-side. Worth the 15 minutes regardless of how much of an athlete or wannabe athlete you are.
For longtime readers — the skeptical “Glass Half Empty on AI Devices” frame is in AI-RTZ #872, “The Glass Half Empty on AI Devices” — relevant context for thinking about which of these trackers actually clears the bar for mainstream adoption. And the Oura Smart Rings IPO segment from last Friday is in ARD #82, “The Mega-AI IPO Valuation Debates Begin” — connecting the health-wearables thread across the two episodes.
MP Take: Apple wins again on the mainstream side of the market with its healthcare tracking features available for free in all the Apple Watch models. Google has a great competitor in the middle with the Fitbit Air — even simpler, less expensive than Whoop. The Whoop is for the ardent workout enthusiasts with the most bells and whistles but the highest price — over $300 a year in subscriptions. It’s a growing area big enough for all three — and more. If you’re rethinking your new-year healthcare resolutions this year, these gadgets can help.
Questions
Q1 — What is the second-most-important Apple Watch feature for MP beyond fitness tracking?
Answer: Weather at a glance.
Our lives are determined by what the weather is outside, so having weather at a glance on the Watch without having to take out your phone is always a boon. So many great apps to consume this category in glanceable bits — both Apple’s native ones and good third-party ones.
Q2 — What is MP’s most-favorite non-Apple app for the Apple Watch?
Answer: There aren’t any.
I’ve been disappointed at the number of mainstream third-party killer apps for the Apple Watch — unlike Apple’s other platforms (iPhone, Mac, iPads) where there’s just a plethora of amazing third-party apps. There are good niche third-party apps for the Watch, but nothing mainstream has broken through into my daily use. Surprising, given the enormous success of the Apple Watch globally — outsells the entire Swiss watch industry in units. If you have suggestions on mainstream third-party Apple Watch apps you love, drop a comment in Substack or on YouTube.
MP Take: The third-party-Apple-Watch-app gap is one of the more interesting mainstream-platform-success-without-a-third-party-developer-ecosystem patterns in consumer tech. The Watch outsells the entire Swiss watch industry — but somehow doesn’t pull a vibrant third-party app market the way iPhone, Mac, and iPad did. Worth watching whether AI-powered companions on the Watch finally crack this open as ambient-AI assistants take over more of the daily-habit-tracking layer.
Shorts Clips from today
Clip 1 — AI’s Promise vs. Overreactions
AI is bigger than anything in any other technology in my entire life. The fear, the backlash, the concern over data centers — these are overreactions. Founders keep talking about the existential, major risks of AI, which all exist. But there are ways to manage them without scaring the bejesus out of everybody — methodically, in partnership, not exaggerating.
MP Take: The US government’s regulatory back-and-forth on AI guardrails is another kryptonite trinket on Superman’s person. Cybersecurity and other concerns are becoming front and center — the government will feel the need to step in with guardrails likely to slow innovation if not curtailed. All technologies have risks. The methodical, partnership approach beats the existential-risk-megaphone approach for actually getting good policy in place.
Clip 2 — AI Fitness Trackers: Apple, Google, Whoop
MKBHD’s terrific comparative review of the three major AI health-fitness trackers available in the next six months. Apple Watch in the mainstream lane. Google’s new Fitbit Air simpler and cheaper in the middle. Whoop with the most bells and whistles at the highest subscription — over 300 dollars a year. Three viable options on the wrist for anyone rethinking their healthcare resolutions this year.
MP Take: Apple wins again on the mainstream side of the market with healthcare tracking features free in all Apple Watch models. Google has a great competitor in the middle with the Fitbit Air. The Whoop is for the ardent workout enthusiasts in a smaller market. A growing area big enough for all three — and more.
Clip 3 — Green Cards: Kiss of Death for Tech
The new US Green Card policy says: if you want to apply, go outside the United States, apply from the embassy in your country. That is basically a kiss of death. Unlike today where applicants can work productively while their green card processes, this forces them back to India, China, Russia — and then wait for five plus years. Silicon Valley is full of billionaires-on-paper entrepreneurs waiting for their green cards. Under this rule, they go home.
MP Take: Over half of green card applicants come from China and India. Five to ten years outside the US — years today spent doing useful work for US employers, primarily in science and technology. A sharp curtailment of the technology talent that has powered US technology waves and wealth creation for generations. The tech industry will be watching closely.
Clip 4 — Green Cards: Going the Opposite Way
The US economy is based on immigration. A third or more of US tech talent comes from overseas. Green cards have been the fountain of America’s resources for decades. The legal path is long — five to ten years for the green card, then another five plus to citizenship. Some have argued we should staple a green card to anyone who graduates with a degree the US needs. What we’re doing is going the opposite way.
MP Take: Jensen Huang from Taiwan. Elon Musk from South Africa. Sergey Brin from the former Soviet Union. All green card holders. All became valued US citizens via the five to ten year path. If they had been required to wait those years in their countries, they would not have founded Nvidia, Tesla, Google in the time frames that allowed America to lead. Immigration is America’s superpower — adding kryptonite to our apparel for short-term political gains is a huge headwind to the US position in the AI race.
AI Ramblings Daily on AI-RTZ is here to think through AI and reset. Together.
Tomorrow — ARD 84 on AI-RTZ #1099. Stay tuned.
Thanks for tuning in, AI Curious Folk.
NOTE: The discussions here are for information purposes only, and not meant as investment advice at any time. Thanks for joining us here.
Links
Take 1 — US Green Card Path Changes
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WSJ — “Green card policy changes, explained”: https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/green-card-policy-changes-explained-9243ee08
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AI-RTZ #692 — US Tech/AI is Truly Immigration Powered (backcat):
Take 2 — China Expanding Travel Curbs on Top AI Talent
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Bloomberg — “China expands travel curbs to top AI talent at private firms”: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-26/china-expands-travel-curbs-to-top-ai-talent-at-private-firms?sref=E6afWE5p
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AI-RTZ #1075 — China’s Post-Manus/Meta Red Chip Changes (backcat):
Take 3 — US AI Regulatory Requirements Despite EO Delay
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The Information — “White House delays AI Executive Order event”: https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/white-house-delays-ai-executive-order-event?rc=fzcdtg
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AI-RTZ #1051 — Anthropic’s Peek-a-boo of Claude / Mythos cybersecurity (backcat):
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AI-RTZ #935 — Battle Over AI Regulatory Executive (backcat):
Gadget AI — AI Health-Fitness Trackers (Google · Apple · Whoop)
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MKBHD YouTube — Google vs Apple vs Whoop comparative review:
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AI-RTZ #872 — Glass Half Empty on AI Devices (backcat):
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ARD #82 — The Mega-AI IPO Valuation Debates Begin (backcat):
Today’s + Yesterday’s companion posts + episode + clips
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AI-RTZ #1098 — Concerns Over AI-Driven Shifts to the Internet (today’s companion):
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AI-RTZ #1097 — Microsoft Slipping in AI Coding (Memorial Day companion):
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ARD 83 — Main on YouTube:
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Short 1 — AI’s Promise vs. Overreactions:
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Short 2 — AI Fitness Trackers: Apple, Google, Whoop:
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Short 3 — Green Cards: Kiss of Death for Tech:
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Short 4 — Green Cards: Going the Opposite Way:
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