Happy Sunday Just a reminder that Stocktoberfest – in New York – is coming up October 5-7. Details here. I will be leading discussions about The Degenerate Economy, The Capex Boom (with Michael Parekh and Ted Seides), brokerage 2.0, the...

Stay in touch Don’t miss a thing! Sign up for our daily e-mail newsletter. (abnormalreturns.com) Work in wealth management? Sign up for our exclusive Talking Wealth newsletter. (talkingwealthpod.com) Top clicks this week Real yields keep...

The Bigger Picture, Sunday, August 16, 2026 We have emphasized through this AI Tech Wave that the most important economic debates in AI keep coming back to one question: what does demand do when the price of a thing collapses, or when the supply of a...

Autos Want to bet on AVs? Buy Uber ($UBER). (barrons.com) More Waymo miles driven means more edge cases experienced. (nytimes.com) Auto insurers are finding ways to not pay claims. (wsj.com) China is making big inroads into Europe’s auto...

Anthropic & OpenAI prep for their mega-AI IPOs: Anthropic and OpenAI are ramping up their preparations ahead of their planned mega-AI IPOs later this year and next respectively. Both have filed confidentially with the SEC. Anthropic, last privately...

Happy Friday folks! Heart Aerospace flew its X1 demonstrator on Wednesday out of Plattsburgh International Airport in upstate New York. A piloted test flight. Taxi, takeoff, climb, maneuvering, landing. All under an FAA experimental airworthiness...

Markets RIsk on! Consumer staple stocks are undeperforming. (allstarcharts.com) We’re nearing 24/7 stock trading. (barrons.com) Treasury bonds The 30-year Treasury bond auction came in at 5.216%, the highest level since 2001. (finance.yahoo.com)...

Today’s theme is ‘For Better or for Worse’. The vow phrase, and it always applies to our AI companies, because the biggest moves they make are commitments: made up front, with the outcomes only knowable later. Especially at today’s pace of this AI Tech...

This Sunday and Monday I went up to the macro level on the AI Compute buildout in a 2 part series: Elon’s mega AI data center supply ambitions (part 1) on Sunday, and the ‘Dwarkesh’ Compute Demand bull case (part 2) on Monday. Today, a part 3 at the...

Today’s theme: ‘Through the Roof’. And sometimes through the floor. The valuation pendulums of this AI Tech Wave. Mr. Market is swinging hard in both directions right now, sometimes in the same day, and three companies today are good case studies of the...