Groundhog Day Groundhog Day Groundhog Day
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CLOSING BELL
Groundhog Day Groundhog Day Groundhog Day
It’s ground hogs day, and Punxsutawney Phil, the Lovecraftian rodent that controls the weather, said the presence of his 140-year-old shadow brings the lament of six more weeks of winter. Woe be upon thee that need vitamin D.
Markets responded Monday, with this week’s incoming big tech earnings and macro data, and the prospect of nothing to do but sit inside, watch the snow, and trade stocks, propelling a near return to record highs.
Fresh PMI data showed manufacturers stepped up their game the most since 2022. Silver and Gold stopped falling, or at least stopped falling as dramatically as they did Friday after the Kevin Warsh FOMC announcement. Silver’s worst day since 1980 was not followed by a second worst day since 1980, and the S&P 500 turned around after a three-day collapse.
News from critical earth Uncle Sam bucks helped, Trump just launched a $12 billion pile of money critical minerals stockpile to counter China, called “Project Vault.” Bitcoin was trying to rebound after falling to $74k, sending exchange and treasury companies sinking midday.
Friday’s unemployment rate and jobs report will likely be delayed due to the shutdown, the BLS said… even though the shutdown just started on Saturday.
According to CNBC, markets had been expecting the report to show an increase of 55,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.4%, but now may never see the data. But we will see Amazon, Google, and AMD reports later in the week. After market PLTR results showed massive gains in AI platform revenue.
Nvidia shares were falling, Chief Huang trying to discount WSJ rumors that plans to invest $100B in OpenAI had frozen over.
SpaceX and XAI are actually going to merge, with a valuation near $1.25T according to a company memo viewed by Bloomberg.
Meanwhile, GameStop is trying to reclaim its meme status, Chief Ryan Cohen stirring acquisition rumors to keep the retail crowd aggressive. With $9B to spend, and a $100B compensation package from the board if he prints results, he’s got a great reason to keep the hype up.
AFTER THE BELL
Palantir Technologies AI Explosion 👁️ And SpaceX + XAI, Sittin In A Tree 💋
$PLTR ( ▲ 0.8% ) is surging after-hours after posting revenue of $1.407 billion (up 70% YoY), crushing the $7.18 billion forecast. The company showed a beat on the bottom line with $0.25 Adj. EPS, silencing skeptics who questioned the sustainability of its triple-digit growth multiples.
The Driver: The “star of the show” was U.S. commercial revenue, which skyrocketed 93% as enterprises moved from experimental pilots to full-scale AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform) deployments. Booked contract value jumped 138% from last year. This shift from defense-heavy contracts to agentic technology for the Fortune 500 represents a total transformation of the company’s revenue mix and margin profile, according to Chief Alex Karp.
“Palantir’s Rule of 40 score is now an incredible 127%,” Karp said. “Palantir is alone in choosing to exclusively focus on scaling the operational leverage made possible by the rapid advancements of AI models, a trend that we first called ‘commodity cognition’ well before others started repeating it.”
The Outlook: Guidance for 2026 was a massive “mic drop,” with management projecting 61% revenue growth, far exceeding Wall Street’s more conservative models. This outlook suggests a sustained AI infrastructure ramp that positions Palantir as the primary software beneficiary of the current hardware build-out.
SpaceX & xAI Merger Talks Target $1T+ Valuation
Bloomberg reported right after the bell an insider scoop that Musk’s big ole private companies SpaceX and XAI are actually going to maybe combine. Internal momentum is building, with a public announcement to come as early as this week, according to unnamed parties, but the talks may also fall apart. 🤫
The deal would value the companies near their most recent funding rounds, xAI at $200B or so, and a $800B price tag on SpaceX after its December share sale. Apparently, xAI is burning through cash, fed into the fires like coal into a steam engine, to stay competitive in the AI slop generative AI race.
Grok and self driving + robot training are costing xAI upwards of $1B a month, or $13B in 2025.
There is even rumors that SpaceX may follow through with the sci-fi dream of sending xAI servers to space, according to company filings. The combination is basically a buy out.
The Outlook: A formal announcement could reshape the private equity landscape, as the combined entity would dwarf the market caps of most S&P 500 legacy tech firms, near $1.25T. Investors are watching for a potential share swap that would provide xAI with the capital required to sustain its multi-billion dollar monthly compute burn.
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TRENDING NEWS
The Chief Leaving the Mouse, More AI Debt, and GameStop Being Gamestop 🎮
(Photo illustration by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)
$GME ( ▲ 8.25% ) is trending on high volume as the company sits on an $8.8 billion cash war chest, which includes a $500 million tactical position in Bitcoin. With cash and crypto now representing 80% of its market cap, the company is effectively a “SPAC” looking for a target.
CEO Ryan Cohen is trying to make a “Berkshire-style” holding company strategy, incentivized by a compensation plan that only pays out if GameStop hits a $100 billion market cap. This “high-stakes” move is supported by a recent stake disclosure from Michael Burry, adding institutional credibility to the retail-led narrative.
The Outlook: The market is bracing for a “genius or foolish” acquisition in the consumer sector as Cohen looks to deploy his billions into a legacy brand.
Oracle Corp. Raising $50B for AI War Chest ☁️
$ORCL ( ▼ 2.75% ) moved to raise up to $50 billion in 2026 to fund an unprecedented cloud expansion. The capital plan involves a $30 billion debt issuance paired with a $20 billion at-the-market equity program to keep the balance sheet resilient. More debt more AI.
The Driver: The massive capital call is required to satisfy a record backlog of contracted demand from Meta, NVIDIA, and OpenAI. Oracle is effectively racing to build out data center capacity for “commodity cognition” hardware, as its current infrastructure is fully tapped out by hyperscale commitments.
Walt Disney Co. Beat Tempered by Iger Exit News 🏰
$DIS ( ▼ 7.4% ) delivered a fiscal Q1 beat with adjusted EPS of $1.63 vs. $1.58 expected, on revenue of $26 billion which edged past the $25.6 billion consensus. Despite the top and bottom-line strength, shares struggled. Adjusted EPS dropped 7% from last year.
The Driver: The Experiences segment continues to carry the weight, generating $3.31B in profit, offestting a 35% drop in entertainment operating income. While streaming margins are improving, the narrative was hijacked by reports that Bob Iger is eyeing an early exit before his 2026 contract expires, creating a leadership vacuum during a critical pivot.
Management maintained its target for double-digit EPS growth through fiscal 2026, but investor sentiment remains tethered to the looming board vote. Until a successor is confirmed—likely choosing between internal candidates like Josh D’Amaro or Dana Walden—the stock faces a “lame duck” period regardless of operational performance.
TRENDING STOCKS
Market Movers
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$SNDK ( ▲ 15.44% ): Led the S&P 500 higher after reporting exceptional earnings on Jan. 29, driven by a severe AI-led memory chip shortage and subsequent analyst price target hikes to as high as $1,000.
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$CCL ( ▲ 8.1% ): Jumped after rival Royal Caribbean issued an upbeat full-year profit forecast, signaling record booking demand across the entire cruise sector for 2026.
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$WDC ( ▲ 7.99% ): Rallied as a multi-year memory supercycle fueled demand for high-capacity storage, further amplified by the launch of new 2x leveraged ETFs targeting the stock. It followed SanDisk, once its subsidiary, higher.
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$NCLH ( ▲ 7.65% ) : Surged in tandem with the cruise sector following peer-led guidance that suggested 2026 capacity is already two-thirds booked at record rates.
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$HOOD ( ▼ 9.62% ) : Sank to “oversold” levels below an RSI of 30 following a weekend crypto rout that saw Bitcoin drop 10%, directly threatening the company’s crypto transaction revenue.
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$EQT ( ▼ 5.16% ) : Retreated as analysts lowered price targets to $68, citing production and cash flow estimates that came in slightly below consensus despite overall revenue growth.
POPS & DROPS
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WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋
Economic data: JOLTS Job Openings 10:00 AM ET, Factory Orders 10:00 AM ET 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: $PFE, $MRK, $EPD, $MPC, $ETN. ☀️
After-Market Earnings: $AMD, $CMG, $EA, $AMGN, $SU, $MDLZ, $EMR, $CB. 🌙
P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.
Links That Don’t Suck 🌐
📈 How Mike Johnson is scrambling to keep the shutdown short
🤑 Trump says U.S. and India reached trade deal, will lower tariffs immediately
🥶 How Taylor Rehmet upset a MAGA candidate to flip a North Texas Senate district
Corporate America is threading a needle on how to respond to the killings in Minnesota
New Epstein files reveal he may have trafficked girls to others despite official denials
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