OVERVIEW

Market Improves From ‘Please No’ To ‘Okay Maybe’ In Stunning Emotional Breakthrough 🥲

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Today’s top trending tickers: Ethereum Classic, Tezos, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, and Worldcoin

Biggest winners: $BEAT ( ▲ 26.3% ) , $WLD ( ▲ 8.59% ) , $NIGHT ( ▲ 12.8% ) , $ONDO ( ▲ 11.32% ) , and $ZEC ( ▲ 11.49% )  

Biggest losers: $H ( ▼ 73.74% ) , $SIREN ( ▼ 3.72% ) , $BCH ( ▼ 4.99% ) , $KITE ( ▼ 1.4% ) , and $XLM ( ▼ 0.6% )  

Before we dive in, here’s the total crypto market cap and altcoin market cap charts:

Click to enlarge.

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
A Dozen Flushes in Twelve Years. The Ones That Look Like This Always Said the Same Thing 📊

The total crypto market cap closed last week at $2.158 trillion, nose diving -50.8% below the October 6 all-time high.

That got me to thinking: how many times has crypto torched 15% in five days? Dozens. And that’s where some of the patterns got interesting.

Note: I’m using TradingViews Total Crypto Market Cap data, which only goes back to March 2014 , so that’s the starting point for this analysis.

Click to enlarge.

The First-ish Red Candles

From 2015 through 2017, the market flushed 15%-plus nine times and bounced every single time – median +77% in 180 days. Then January 2018 strolled in and turned off the lights. With a baseball bat. A very large baseball bat.

That Was Very Painful

The 2018 bear coughed up seven of these flushes. The February 5 one crossed -50%, and everyone clutching the coupon book bought it – the cartoon moment where the coyote hangs in midair, briefly optimistic – then fell another 46% over ten months to -86.5%.

Then the 2022 bear ran pretty much the same way with a fresh cast of dudes who definitely weren’t a Ponzi.

Math, But With Feelings A Sociopath Has

Deep-drawdown flushes like last week’s – landing near 50% below the high – deliver a median -12.5% at 180 days and a 37% win rate. And the piano in the doorway: the first flush after crossing -50% has never been the bottom. 

Not 2018. Not 2022. We just had one.

Don’t Shoot The Messenger…

The last two bears bottomed 342 and 378 days after the top.

Friday’s low was day 242 – projecting a low around mid-to-late September 2026. Bonus for the corkboard-and-red-string crowd: 2018’s worst flush day was February 5, and this cycle’s worst flush hit June 5 – exactly 120 days later, to the day.

The bounce we’re experiencing? History says enjoy it while it lasts – the market gets until September to prove it wrong, and it has never been in a hurry to make us feel better.

And don’t kill the messenger here, I am in the same boat as everyone else and hoping this time it’s different. But the limited data we have to work off of shows, so far, that we’ve got a little bit more pain in the form of sideways fakeouts and shakeouts ahead.

NEWS
Well Done, Galaxy, Well Done 👏

If you’re curious why $GLXY ( ▲ 21.36% ) was treanding at #1 today on Stocktwits and why it’s up +23%, this might be a contributing factor:

$MS ( ▲ 0.15% ) will now point its wealthiest clients toward Galaxy Digital to get crypto exposure without selling any crypto. You lend Galaxy your $BTC ( ▲ 2.46% ) , $ETH ( ▲ 4.16% ) , or $SOL ( ▲ 4.37% ) , and Galaxy hands back shares of a spot-crypto ETP- Morgan Stanley’s own Bitcoin Trust included – through an in-kind creation.

No sale, no taxable event.

Also, the lending minimum for referred clients drops from $25 million to $5 million, which counts as democratization when your client roster goes from “Owns a small island” to just “Owns a plane.”

Progress is progress.

NEWS
Pump.fun Launches Platform Where You Can Finally Pay A Stranger $5 To Do Something You’d Never Admit Wanting Done 🤦

This dropped last week, and I’ve finally stopped twitching long enough to write about how bad it is.

Twitter tweet

Pump.fun, the memecoin slot machine that turned “have you considered gambling” into a business model has launched, GO. And the slogan for GO is, well, as bad as you’d imagine: “Pay ANYONE to do ANYTHING.”

It’s a bounty system service. Some examples of stupid we will likely see happening soon:

• $50 to see if these mushrooms are the fun kind or the final kind.

• $100 to lick the third rail and confirm the trains stopped.

• $20 to test if my landlord’s ‘DO NOT TOUCH’ panel is load-bearing.

• $50 to show up as me at my court date.

• $15 to confirm the smell in my apartment is normal gas-furnace stuff.

• $3,000 to deliver this bag – don’t open it, don’t ask, drive the speed limit.

• $100,000 to recover my stolen crypto by ‘asking around firmly.’

• $25 to go tell my wife I’m doing great.

• $20,000 to make my situation simply go away.

• $5 to write the heartwarming article about how Pump.fun GO brought a community together.

I’m sure nothing bad will come from a globally accessible, pseudonymous, crypto-settled marketplace whose entire value proposition is the word “anything,” moderated by a memecoin company squinting at submitted screenshots as proof that someone did something.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Privacy Coin Confirms Supply Is Fine, Also Confirms There Is Literally No Way To Confirm That 😐️

Here’s a quick reminder and a quick follow up to what’s going on with $ZEC ( ▲ 11.49% )

• May 28, 2026 – Anthropic releases the Opus 4.8 model. A day later it becomes the wedge that cracks open a four-year-old bug.

• May 29 – Taylor Hornby finds the flaw. During a Shielded Labs audit, Hornby uncovers a critical counterfeiting bug in the Orchard circuit and discloses it privately to ZODL the same day. It had been live since May 2022.

• June 1–2 patched – A soft fork pauses Orchard while engineers build and test the fix. Remediation wraps June 2 — days, not weeks.

• June 3 – NU6.2 hard fork. The fix is made permanent at the consensus layer. The window of exposure is closed before any disclosure goes out.

• June 4–5 – OMG THE END IS NIGH panic dump. Zooko publishes the full, honest writeup of an already-fixed bug. Nobody cares. ZEC craters to $298, 52% off its high. Arthur Hayes dumps his entire bag and calls the “Holy Trinity” dead.

That brings us to Saturday (June 6). Shielded Labs, the Zcash Foundation, ZODL, Tachyon, and Valar Group jointly proposed Ironwood, a new shielded pool built on the patched Orchard circuit with formal verification and independent audits layered on top.

Twitter tweet

How it works: as coins migrate out of the old pool, any counterfeit ZEC gets either exposed when it tries to leave or gets stranded and destroyed. Once it’s live, anyone running Zcash software can sum balances across pools and confirm the supply was never inflated – no trusting the dev team required.

That’s the whole ballgame for a privacy coin: a way to prove the supply is clean without un-private-ing the network.

ZEC bottomed near $250 during Friday’s panic and is trading around $444 as of midday today – a roughly 78% rally off the low in three sessions, though still a few rungs below the $620+ value area.

Ironwood targets late-July activation and still has to clear governance. We’ll keep you updated.

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter a year ago today:

• Crypto had slipped back this year – total market cap was -1% YTD and -12% from the all-time high.

• Altcoins looked worse, naturally – altcoin market cap was -17% YTD and -29% from ATH, while alts ex-ETH were -14% YTD and -26% from ATH.

• The week was ugly almost everywhere – Top 25 -8%, DEX -13%, Proof-of-Stake -10%, Web3 -10%, NFTs -9%.

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter two years ago today:

• Crypto was still well below the highs, but ripping on the year – total market cap was down 11.78% from the all-time close, while up 53.60% YTD and 132.87% YoY.

• Altcoins were stronger than usual – altcoin market cap was up 44.59% YTD and 103.38% YoY, though still -28.84% from its all-time close.

• Alts ex-ETH were also strong – up 35.28% YTD and 104.52% YoY, while still -33.62% from ATH.

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

June 8

• 452 – Atilla invades Italy.

• 793 – The beginning of Norse/Viking activity in England beings with the raid on Lindisfarme in Northumbria.

• 1042 – Edward the Confessor becomes King of England.

• 1789 – James Madison introduces the Bill of Rights.

• 1893 – Ghandi’s first act civil disobedience.

• 1949 – George Orwell’s 1984 is published.

• 1959 – The USPS sent mail by guided missile. Oddly, that was the only time mail by missile was ever used.

• 1970 – The NFL and AFL merge.

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋