Momentum Monday – Does The Bounce Continue?
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Good morning…
Good news if you are reading this…you survived the Orange Swan last week.
If you follow the weekly show you know I was buying last Monday and I shared them on Stocktwits. The bounce has been spectacular.
This week I am a net seller of anything I bought last week and I am looking to offload some more Apple as I talk about in this weeks show below.
Now, I wait for trends to emerge.
So far, gold and war/defense stocks are breaking to more all-time highs. Not my cup of tea for the right leadership in a healthy growth market.
The chart that caught my surprise is this one for Gold returns since the year 2000:
do we even need Silicon Valley?
— Coronado ‘Porch’ Lindzon (@howardlindzon)
12:59 PM • Apr 14, 2025
It is ok to be confused…the White House is also confused.
Welcome back to Momentum Monday!
In today’s episode of Momentum Monday, Ivanhoff and I discuss the following:
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Analyzing Market Rebounds Amidst Tariff Confusion
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Market Analysis: $AAPL ( ▲ 2.21% ) and $QQQ ( ▲ 0.68% ) Trends
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$GLD ( ▼ 0.57% ) and Market Momentum Trends
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Investment Opportunities in Volatile Markets
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The Influence of the Trump Family on Cap Tables
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Rising Costs in Home Building Due to Tariffs
In This Episode, We Cover:
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Analyzing Market Rebounds Amidst Tariff Confusion (0:00)
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Market Analysis: $AAPL ( ▲ 2.21% ) and $QQQ ( ▲ 0.68% ) Trends (3:40)
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$GLD ( ▼ 0.57% ) and Market Momentum Trends (7:22)
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Investment Opportunities in Volatile Markets (10:57)
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The Influence of the Trump Family on Cap Tables (14:41)
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Rising Costs in Home Building Due to Tariffs (18:14)
Here are Ivanhoff’s thoughts:
The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) tested its 2021 highs and had a big 15% bounce. This is likely a bear market rally from deeply oversold levels and not the beginning of a new trend higher. If QQQ follows through, the next upside targets are its declining 20-day moving average near 465 and its year-to-date volume-weighted-average price around 470.
Trump paused tariff increases for all countries except China. The current tariffs are 10% for everyone and 125% for China. The trade war escalated and now China has also announced 125% tariffs on US products. It is hard to believe that the current bear market will end before there’s an agreement between the two biggest economies in the world.
In the meantime, the new earnings season has begun. JPMorgan beat estimates but warned of a potential recession and financial crisis down the road if the current trade war is not resolved. The silver lining is that despite the warnings, JPM gained 4% – a positive market reaction but the stock remains in an overall downtrend, so nothing has really changed. The market will be paying close attention to earnings in the next few weeks – not so much to what companies report but to what companies expect in the foreseeable future. If enough of them guide lower or even remove guidance due to elevated uncertainty, the market might be spooked and have another leg lower.
We remain in a bear market environment, which requires nimble trading and frequent profit-taking. It is important to remain open-minded to any scenario and be willing to quickly switch between long and short in a tape that can change direction quickly. There are many moving parts in play. It is not just the stock market. The US Dollar just had one of its fastest declines in the past two months and it is now 10% cheaper year-to-date. Previously, US Treasuries played the role of a safe haven during equity corrections. Not this time. Rates jumped as stocks went lower. This is a major change in intermarket relations that can lead to forced liquidations. The only place to hide was gold.
And here are the charts discussed:
