OVERVIEW

The Interesting Axis Was Never the Vertical One 🫢

Here’s What’s Happening 👇️

Today’s top trending tickers: BankrCoin, Internet Computer, Gitlawb, ROAM Token, and AMP.

Biggest winners: $HYPE ( ▼ 4.65% ) , $RLUSD ( ▲ 0.01% ) , $USDC ( ▲ 0.02% ) , $USDG ( ▲ 0.03% ) , and $PYUSD ( ▲ 0.0% )  

Biggest losers: $SUI ( ▼ 8.53% ) , $TON ( ▼ 6.88% ) , $AAVE ( ▼ 6.06% ) , $ICP ( 0.0% ) , and $ONDO ( ▼ 8.55% )

Before we dive in, here’s the total crypto market cap and altcoin market cap charts:

Source: TradingView

CRYPTOTWITS
Latest Cryptotwits Episode 👇️ 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
W.D. Gann, Dead Since 1955, Continues To Out-Forecast Crypto Influencers 💀 

Get read to don thy tinfoil hats.

William Delbert Gann was a Texas trader who spent the early 1900s convinced that markets weren’t random. While everyone else stared at prices, Gann stared at the calendar. He believed time, not price, ran the show.

Was he a genius market mechanic or a man who found patterns in his breakfast? The honest answer is “yes.” He’s also one of the fathers of modern technical analysis.

Gann mixed legitimately sharp cycle work with a heavy dose of geometry, the science of astronomy, and ancient-esoteric math, then sold expensive courses about it. Skepticism is the correct starting position.

So I took years of daily $BTC ( ▼ 2.93% ) and $ADA ( ▼ 3.93% ) (to represent altcoins) data and checked. What follows is the result, and a forward map of the dates Gann’s math says to circle.

Read it as a when something could happen, not a what will happen.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Bitcoin’s Halving Cycle Achieves Better Punctuality Record Than Amtrak? 🤔 

Every cycle, someone publishes a piece arguing the four-year cycle is dead. The Bitcoin halving cycle, in its mature form, is a 1,424-to-1,479-day metronome measured between successive cycle all-time highs. The last three readings:

• 1,478 days from the Nov 2013 ATH to the Dec 2017 ATH

• 1,424 days from Dec 2017 to Nov 2021

• 1,426 days from Nov 2021 to the Oct 6, 2025 ATH

I mean, it’s only three readings, not a lot of data to go off of, but it’s what we’ve got.

Three consecutive readings within 55 days of each other.

Bitcoin is now 221 days past the Oct 6, 2025 ATH. The historical bear-decline envelope from cycle ATH to cycle bear bottom is 363 to 411 days. We have not been there yet. The Feb 6, 2026 low at $60,133 – a textbook Gann Feb 5 hit – is most likely a setup, but it ended up not being the floor (well, it could be, time will tell).

Gann’s methods point hard at two date windows in the back half of 2026 where the real bottom is most likely to print (if it does), and at Sep 1, 2029 as the next cycle ATH.

Click to enlarge.

Was Feb 6, 2026 The Bottom?

The Feb 6, 2026 low landed one day off Gann’s Feb 5 anchor and ran exactly 123 days from the Oct 6, 2025 ATH. Structurally too early for a cycle bottom (but structures get broken all the time).

The 2014, 2018, and 2022 bear declines ran 411, 363, and 376 days respectively. The simplest historical-analogue math says Bitcoin’s real cycle low is roughly 140 to 290 days farther out – a window that runs from October to late November 2026.

The Oct 6, 2025 ATH to the Nov 21, 2025 flush low ran 46 days, a textbook 45-day Death Zone hit and Gann’s signature termination signature for blow-off rallies.

2026: Oct 1-7 and Nov 15-23

From the eighteen forward cluster zones over the next twelve months, two carry four independent Gann confluences each. Both land inside the historical bear-cycle termination envelope.

Oct 1-7, 2026 Cluster

• The 360-day cycle off the Oct 6, 2025 ATH lands Oct 1.

• The exact 1-year/365d anniversary lands Oct 6.

• The 315-day cycle off the Nov 21, 2025 first flush low lands Oct 2.

• The 240-day cycle off the Feb 6 low lands Oct 4. Four cycles converging inside a five-day window, sitting at the lower edge of the 363-411 day bear-cycle envelope.

Nov 15-23, 2026 Cluster

• The 360-day cycle off the Nov 21, 2025 first flush lands Nov 16.

• The 4-year anniversary of the Nov 21, 2022 FTX bottom lands the same day.

• The 270-day cycle (can extend to 290) off the Feb 6 low lands Nov 21.

• Add Gann’s Nov 8 winter-onset window two weeks earlier.

A reclaim of $97,913 (the Jan 14 H) before the Jun 3-8 cluster flips the structural read toward the bull-cycle-resumption case, and the Oct/Nov clusters become candidates for the next cycle high rather than a low.

A break of $60,133 inside any of the May/June/July clusters reinforces the bear-continuation case and puts the real capitulation low into the Oct/Nov windows at materially worsening price action.

If Oct/Nov both fail to print a low, the Dec 17-22 winter-solstice window – Bitcoin’s single most reliable Gann anchor, with four historical pivots – becomes the third candidate.

Click to enlarge.

2027-2029: The Halving Cycle Refuses To Die… Maybe

Off whatever low prints in late 2026, the forecast projects the next cycle ATH on a 1,050-to-1,068-day clock. The last three bull runs from cycle bottom to cycle top measured 1,068, 1,061, and 1,050 days.

Around Sep 1, 2029 is the projected cycle 6 ATH. The date stacks with a 3.5-year (1,278d) cycle off the Dec 30, 2022 bear-cycle low, the 4-year mark off the Aug 5, 2024 launch low, and the 1,278-day cycle off the Feb 6, 2026 low. If the Oct/Nov 2026 window prints the cycle bottom, this is the highest-conviction date.

Also, Dec 17-22, 2027 carries special weight. The winter-solstice window has hit four major BTC pivots:

• The Dec 17, 2017 cycle 3 ATH (to the day)

• The Dec 15, 2018 cycle 3 bottom,

• The Dec 18, 2019 mid-bull pullback, and the original Dec 17, 2009 floor.

• Dec 2027 is the most likely candidate for a major mid-bull pullback low or a significant intermediate inflection.

But, like anything and everything, let’s just watch and see what happens. But it helps having something to work off of.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
ADA Hodler Discovers Asset Has ‘Densest Cluster In Entire Forecast Horizon’, Wonders If That Means Up 😆

On Feb 6, 2026, ADA put in a major low at $0.221. That was one day off Gann’s Feb 5 mark – his most reliable seasonal date for ADA, which has now produced major lows in 2019, 2025, and 2026.

The 270-day cycle, the one Gann ranked just below the 180, has nailed two recent ADA peak-to-trough runs almost to the day: Apr 2022 H to Dec 2022 L, and May 2025 H to Feb 2026 L. The Feb 6 low is the anchor everything forward radiates from.

Click to enlarge.

2026: The Inner Year

Gann’s inner-year work divides the calendar into geometric chunks (45, 90, 135, 180, 225, 270, 315, 360 days) and looks for dates where multiple cycle lengths converge. From the Feb 6 low, four cluster zones stand out in the back half of 2026.

Jun 15–23. Four independent cycles converge here – 135 days off Feb 6, 250 days off the Oct 10, 2025 low, the 1-year echo of the Jun 22, 2025 solstice low, and Gann’s own annual high/low watch window.

This is the densest confluence and the date range around which the year’s directional thesis should resolve. A higher low into late May plus a reclaim of $0.30 going in flips the cluster into a launch zone. A break of $0.221 before June turns it into a a materially lower price.

• Aug 3–11 is the 180-day cycle off Feb 6 and coincides with the 2-year mark off the Aug 5, 2024 low and 360 days off the Aug 14, 2025 high.

• Oct 2–15 is the 240/250-day work plus the 1-year echo of the Oct 10, 2025 flush.

• Nov 1–10 is the 270-day cycle off Feb 6 – the same cycle that nailed the last two peak-to-trough runs – landing inside Gann’s Nov 8 winter-onset window and within five days of the 5-year anniversary of the Nov 2021 blow-off top.

Treat all three of those windows symmetrically: they fire as tops or bottoms depending on which side of the June cluster the trend ends up on.

Click to enlarge.

2027–2028: The Next Bull Top Window?

• As long as we’re going into the crazy stuff, let’s keep going out further.

• Cycle 1 ATH to Cycle 2 ATH ran 3.66 years (Jan 2018 to Sep 2021).

• Cycle 2 ATH to Cycle 3 high ran 3.25 years (Sep 2021 to Dec 2024).

• Extending the same cadence off Dec 3, 2024 puts the next cycle top somewhere between March 2028 and August 2028.

The 7-year mark off the Sep 2, 2021 ATH lands on Sep 2, 2028. That date stacks with the 3.5-year (1,278-day) cycle off the Dec 30, 2022 bear-cycle low, the 4-year mark off the Aug 5, 2024 launch low, and the 1,278-day cycle off the Feb 6, 2026 low.

Click to enlarge.

Gann does not predict direction. It identifies when. The when-map for the next four-and-a-half years has three pins: Jun 15–23, 2026 (the year’s first big decision), Aug–Sep 2028 (the next cycle-top window), and Feb 5, 2030 (the next major bottom candidate). Everything else fills in between those three pins.

It’s still weird, but it’s also cool.

CRYPTOTWITS
Stream Signals 📢

A handful of Stocktwits posts worth pulling out of the scroll. 👇️

<blockquote align="center" class="stocktwits-embedded-post" data-origin="https://stocktwits.com" data-id="653490932"

$ETH.X rejected $2324 and found support at $2232, which we expect to hold.  The range between $2232 and $2402 should hold for now. #cryptocurrencies
tradingview.com/x/fm8pjB5R/

<blockquote align="center" class="stocktwits-embedded-post" data-origin="https://stocktwits.com" data-id="653521807"

$BTC.X  
One of many reasons to own this!
👇
They are not here to waste time.
Follow the greed

<blockquote align="center" class="stocktwits-embedded-post" data-origin="https://stocktwits.com" data-id="653521778"

$BTC.X monthly: history rhymes…

<blockquote align="center" class="stocktwits-embedded-post" data-origin="https://stocktwits.com" data-id="653515987"

$ZEC.X Zcash is still on track as anticipated. Here is a new update!
Zcash Resumes Uptrend: Wave 5 Points Toward Major Highs  
#crypto#Zcash#elliottwave#freechart
Check it in the link below
wavetraders.com/free-charts…

OLD NEWS
Crypto Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Time Ago 📜

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter a year ago today:

• Coinbase had one of those “can this week get any dumber?” weeks – it got into the S&P 500, got hit with a $20M blackmail attempt, and still had the SEC poking around old user metrics.

• Cardano pitched a big retail-first airdrop – Midnight was set to target 37 million wallets across multiple chains, while VCs got left outside like they forgot the dress code.

• NEAR got faster – rolling out 600ms blocks and 1.2s finality, which is the kind of thing chain people say with the enthusiasm normal people reserve for oxygen.

Here’s what was happening in the newsletter two years ago today:

• The headline was institutional Bitcoin ETF FOMO – Bracebridge, Pine Ridge, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Boothbay, and Wisconsin were all cited as piling into spot BTC ETFs.

• Bracebridge was the big splash – about $363M across ARKB, IBIT, and GBTC.

• A bunch of altcoins were testing breakouts – ETH, ADA, FLOKI, SHIB, XTZ, and AVAX were all framed as being near key levels.

OLD NEWS
Other Stuff That Happened Today, But A Long Ass Time Ago ⌛️

May 15

• 495 BC – The Temple of Mercury is dedicated in Rome, on the Aventine Hill.

• 221 – Liu Bei says he’s the emperor Shu Han, the successor of the Han dynasty.

• 1618 – Johannes Kepler discovers his harmonics law.

• 1862 – The US Department of Agriculture is established.

• 1928 – Mickey and Minnie Mouse make their first appearance.

• 1940 – Nylon stockings are sold for the first time.

• 1940 – Richard and Maurice McDonald open the first McDonald’s in San Bernadino.

• 1941 – Joe DiMaggio begins his 56-day hitting streak. It’s still the longest streak in MLB history.

• 1988 – The Soviets begin withdrawing over 115,000 soldiers from Afghanistan.

Get In Touch 📬

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLD, NEAR, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋