OVERVIEW

Watching The Rally From A Safe Emotional Distance Like It’s An Ex Who Texted 🏃‍♂️

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

Source: finviz

And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

Source: TradingView

ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
On-Chain Lie Detector: Four Signals Worth Listening To ⚠️

Price action tells you what happened. On-chain data tells you who did it and whether they’re sorry. 🕵️ 

On-chain metrics are surveillance footage – they show you what hodlers are actually doing with their coins versus what they’re posting about on social, which as we all know are two very different things.

The goal here isn’t to build a dashboard that looks impressive and explains nothing. It’s to answer the questions that matter:

• Is the selloff real exhaustion or just the opening act?

• Are the people moving their crypto speculators or the long-term hodlers/investors?

• Does price have anything real underneath it, or is it held up entirely by vibes and influencer/KOL thumbnails?

To answer those questions, I’m using four on-chain metrics:

Mean Dollar Invested Age (MDIA) – Tracks how long the average dollar has been sitting still in the market, so when it drops sharply, older money is moving again and you should pay attention to where it’s going.

Percent of Total Supply in Profit – Tells you what share of all coins are currently sitting on a gain, and the closer that gets to everyone, the closer you are to a market where almost nobody has a reason to keep holding.

Market Value To Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio (365d) – Compares Bitcoin’s current price to what buyers from the past year actually paid, flagging when recent buyers are either deeply tempted to sell (big gains) or unlikely to (sitting at a loss).

Network Value To Transactions (NVT) Ratio (Circulation) – Measures whether the price is justified by real on-chain activity, essentially asking if the network is actually being used enough to deserve its current valuation or if it’s just priced on feelings.

Now let’s dig in. ⛏️

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ON-CHAIN ANALYSIS
Bitcoin Is Underwater. Oh, And The Lifeguard Left In October 👙 

Let’s start with the number that deserves a moment of silence: 52.76%. That is the percentage of Bitcoin’s circulating supply currently sitting at a profit. 😱 

Five months ago, on October 3rd, that number was 100%. Every single holder, to the penny, was in the green. The market had essentially achieved a kind of dystopian perfection where nobody was losing.

As we now know, the correct response to that signal was not celebration. It was an orderly walk toward the exit. Most people did not take that walk. They are currently being reminded why.

Mean Dollar Invested Age

Mean Dollar Invested Age – Click to enlarge.

MDIA bottomed out at 183.75 days on November 26th of last year. People who’d been holding since dirt were finally deciding their patience had been sufficiently rewarded and someone else could hold the bag for a while.

Since that trough, the MDIA has been climbing. It’s now at 214.7 and has added 31 days of age over the last 90 days. To me it that says the BTC which moved during the distribution phase have largely found new homes and are now sitting still.

Percent of Total Supply in Profit

Percentage Of Total Supply In Profit – Click to enlarge.

We covered the headline number. What’s worth adding is the rate of deterioration: –13.5% in the last 30 days alone, and down 4.4% in just the last two weeks. The market went from 100% of supply in profit at the October peak to 52.76% today (well, as of the 24th that is, probably a little different today).

That is nearly half the circulating supply now underwater, in roughly five months. When half of the hodlers are already in the red, the pool of people who can sell at a gain shrinks dramatically. Sell pressure has to come from somewhere. Right now, that somewhere is getting awfully shallow.

MVRV Ratio (365d)

MVRV Ratio – Click to enlarge.

The average person who bought Bitcoin in the last year is in the ‘I’m having a bad time’ territory.

A negative MVRV doesn’t mean things can’t get worse. It means the average yearly buyer has already been through the wood chipper. The motivation to sell and lock in a loss is substantially lower than the motivation to hold and hope, which historically tends to reduce the available supply of panicked exits.

When I’m looking at this data, to me it looks like the people who were going to capitulate already did most of it around February 5th when this metric was at its lowest.

NVT Ratio (Circulation)

NVT Ratio – Click to enlarge.

The NVT ratio is the only one of the bunch that isn’t wailing or screaming. It’s sitting at 245, which is right in the middle of its historical range, and 77 points below its 90-day rolling average of 322. 

That gap means the current price, as beaten up as it is, is not outrunning the actual on-chain economic activity happening on the network. There is no valuation excess baked into this number right now. The speculation premium has been wrung out.

That’s a different setup than what we saw at the peaks. When MVRV was 0.729 in March 2024 and when profit saturation hit 100% in October 2025, NVT was elevated, meaning price was running ahead of network fundamentals.

Putting It All Together

To me, all four of the above on-chain conditions confirm Bitcoin is in place for a recovery, but not enough to say when it happens. A market can look washed out on every metric and still bleed sideways for months.

The confirmation I want is the MDIA continuing to rise and the MVRV ticking back toward zero, I want to see the 1+ year buyers recovering their cost basis, not dropping further below it.

I also believe the data does not support a thesis involving a speculative bubble, active distribution, or meaningful profit-taking risk. Nearly half the supply is already underwater. The people running for the exits have largely already run.

What’s left is a market sitting at the bottom of a hole – which tends to be a more interesting setup than five months ago, when everyone was up, everyone felt like a genius, and the only question was how long the party would last.

We now have a pretty good answer to that. 🧠 

STELLAR
Dark Pools On Stellar 🌑

There is a problem crypto/blockchain doesn’t talk about enough: the moment you broadcast a large order (well, any order really), you’ve already lost. 👍️ 

In tradfi, this is why dark pools exist. Big institutions don’t want to wave their positions around like a yard sale sign. Crypto has the same problem, arguably worse – on most blockchains your pending transaction sits in a public mempool while bots circle it like seagulls around a dropped sammich.

$XLM ( ▲ 11.82% ) ’s architecture makes front-running less acute, but the core issue stands: visible orders get exploited. Period.

So Stellar’s researchers went looking for a genuine dark pool solution. They tested four approaches. Three of them got humbled.

• ZK proofs sound perfect until you think for five seconds. They prove computation was correct – they don’t hide anything from the operator while the proof is being built. Next.

• MPC is legit interesting – distribute the computation so no single party ever sees a complete order. The team built a working prototype and the privacy guarantees are real. Then the scaling numbers showed up: 100ish seconds for 100 participants, 600+ seconds for 1,200, you see the problem.

• Fully homomorphic encryption didn’t even make it to the finish line. Twenty simulated participants – 10 buyers, 10 sellers – took over three hours to compute. MPC handles 100 participants in 30 seconds. Moving on.

Trusted Execution Environments: Unglamorous, But It Works

TEEs – Intel TDX, AMD SEV-SNP, AWS Nitro – isolate computation in hardware so the surrounding infrastructure, including the operator, can’t see inside. The team built a working prototype on Phala’s TEE Cloud. The matching engine’s private keys were generated inside the TEE and have never existed anywhere else – Intel’s hardware attests to it.

The Explain It Like I’m Five Version Of What I Just Wrote

I’m roughly 33% certain I know 20% of what I wrote up there, Stonktwits has some engineers that know this stuffs and confirmed what I wrote, but I needed them to dumb it down for me. Like, alot. So here it is:

• Imagine a locked glass box sitting in the middle of a room full of nosy people.

• Everyone can see the box exists, and they can see things going in and out – but nobody can see what’s happening inside, not even the person who owns the room.

• The box does its job, spits out a result, and comes with a tamper-evident seal proving it ran exactly the code it was supposed to.

• That’s a TEE. Your order goes in, the match comes out, and the operator running the whole thing never saw what you were trading or for how much.

Based on research from the Stellar Development Foundation.

NEWS
Terra’s Bankruptcy Estate Sues Jane Street For Insider Trading 🤦

I finally have a chance to toss this into the newsletter. This shit show remains unresolved. Kudos to the WSJ article for this. You can read it here if you want more details, but in case you are unaware or you forgot about the horrorfest that was Terra, here’s about as summarized a way I can do it. 👇️

What Happened (Filed Feb. 23, 2026)

• Terraform Labs bankruptcy administrator Todd Snyder sued Jane Street in Manhattan federal court

• Claims: insider trading, market manipulation, misappropriating confidential information

• Naughty list: Commodity Exchange Act, Securities Exchange Act, fraud, unjust enrichment

• Seeks damages, disgorgement of profits, and a jury trial

The Key Allegations

• May 7, 2022: Terraform quietly withdrew $150M UST from Curve3pool – no public announcement

• Within 10 minutes, a Jane Street-linked wallet withdrew $85M UST from the same pool

• The lawsuit says that’s not a coincidence.

• Jane Street allegedly exited hundreds of millions in UST exposure “mere hours” before the full collapse

Timeline of Destruction

• 2018 – Jane Street becomes a Terraform liquidity partner; Pratt interns at Terraform

• Early 2022 – Jane Street-Terraform activity surges; Pratt allegedly re-establishes insider contacts

• May 7-12, 2022 – UST depegs, Luna hyperinflates to zero, $40B evaporates in one week

• May 9, 2022 – Pratt messages Do Kwon mid-collapse offering to buy BTC or Luna; Kwon references Jump’s Bill DiSomma as someone who should’ve already called

• June 15, 2022 – Jon Morgan (/wave) joins Stocktwits at one hell of a time to join Stocktwits. 🤣 

• Late 2022 – Terra contagion takes down Three Arrows Capital, Celsius, Voyager, and eventually FTX

• Jan. 2024 – Terraform files bankruptcy

• 2024 – Terraform pays SEC $4.47B penalty

• Aug. 2025 – Do Kwon pleads guilty to two criminal counts

• Dec. 2025 – Kwon sentenced to 15 years; Snyder sues Jump Trading for $4B

• Feb. 23, 2026 – Snyder sues Jane Street

Jane Street’s Response

• Called the lawsuit “desperate,” “baseless,” and “opportunistic”

• Blamed the losses on Terraform management’s “multibillion-dollar fraud” – which is true, and also beside the point

And that’s where we’re at. I’ll keep you updated as this develops. 📰 

STOCKTWITS
Latest Stocktwits Podcasts & Videos 😱

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in AVAX, ADA, PUDGY, WLC, IMX, XTZ, NEAR, HBAR, ALGO, INJ, LTC, LINK, ZEC, XLM, and FET. 📋