When Will Jobs Come Back?
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CLOSING BELL
When Will Jobs Come Back?
Happy Wednesday! Macro is on fire today as the January jobs report just shattered expectations with 130,000 jobs added, and the unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%.
Sounds great, but looking backward, you can see why the S&P 500 closed at an eerie -0.00%. Job additions at the end of 2025 were slashed in a revision, showing the economy added nearly one million fewer jobs than previously recorded, from March ’24 to March ‘25. It was one of the worst years for job additions, at just 181,000, since 2020, and before the Covid nightmare, the job market had not been that bad since the great recession.
Sounds dramatic, but seriously, December 2024 saw more job additions to the economy than last year. Because the past looking job growth cuts were so bad, it looks like forward looking interest rate cuts are not on the table any time soon.
House lawmakers late Wednesday night passed a measure to reject Trump’s tariffs on Canada, a couple of hours after insiders in the White House said the president might pull out of the CUSMA trade pact he signed during his first term. It is set for review for extension by July 1.
Earnings are showing a steep divide for winners and losers in the AI software wipeout and crypto sell-off. Not all names are created equal: Cloudflare initially jumped 10% after its report Tuesday that beat estimates, and mentioned that Cloudflare is the perfect place to host AI agents that have gone viral.
Speaking of agents, real estate stocks started to slip as traders started to wonder if back to the office was necessary if everyone is replaced with chat bots. 🤖
AFTER THE BELL
From Networks to Pharmacy, Big Names Are Struggling to Report Wins 🤒
The networking giant $CSCO ( ▼ 0.87% ) Cisco Systems fell after-hours despite a “beat and raise” quarter fueled by double digit AI growth.
$1.04 EPS outpaced the $1.02 consensus, while record revenue of $15.3 billion climbed 10% year-over-year to top the $15.1 billion analyst target. AI infrastructure orders from hyperscalers totaled $2.1 billion, as Cisco races to build back-end AI networking. 📶
Q3 revenue guidance was raised to a range of $15.4 billion to $15.6 billion, signaling confidence, but CNBC had the word ‘mediocre’ in their headline, and said barely meeting estimates does not go very far if AI networking growth is supposed to be so explosive.
The mobile advertising powerhouse AppLovin showed Q4 performance that saw earnings nearly double year-over-year. Of course, it was not enough to push the stock higher after hours, the entire tech market waiting for sure signs AI will not replace everything. 📲
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$3.24 EPS crushed the $2.89 Street estimate by 12%, on quarterly revenue of $1.66 billion which eclipsed the expected $1.61 billion. Software platform revenue drove the beat resulting in a staggering 51% net margin.
The healthcare conglomerate CVS Health reported a robust top-line beat. While the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act pressured the Health Care Benefits segment, the company’s focus on drug pricing transparency is stabilizing. 💊
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$1.09 EPS beat, while total revenue hit $105.7 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase. Health Services sales rose 9% to $51.2 billion. FY 2026 guidance was reaffirmed, though the company lowered its full-year revenue outlook to $400 billion from a more cautious consumer environment.
The casino operator MGM Resorts delivered a dramatic turnaround in Macau and strong digital betting growth offset a slight softening on the Las Vegas Strip. The forward outlook remains optimistic for the second half of 2026, with management projecting mid-single-digit revenue growth. Good to hear, because normally all you can hear is prediction market bets taking over everything. 💰️
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$1.23 EPS doubled the analyst forecast while revenue of $4.61 billion surpassed the consensus estimate. MGM China revenue surged 21% year-over-year, while the BetMGM venture reported a massive $470 million EBITDA turnaround.
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STOCKS
Some Morning Movers That Were Not Moving the Right Way 🏹 🛍️ 🕹️
The retail brokerage giant Robinhood saw shares tumble 12% following a fourth-quarter report where a significant miss in digital asset trading overshadowed a surprise earnings beat. Despite strong growth in subscriptions and predictions action, the sharp cooling of the “retail crypto fever” has investors reassessing the platform’s high-growth narrative.
$0.66 EPS beat analyst consensus, but total revenue of $1.28 billion fell short of targets. Cryptocurrency revenue collapsed 38% year-over-year to $221 million.
We covered this stock last night, but feature it today to highlight the massive reactions in share price that are hitting more than Bitcoin sellers.
Twitter tweet
The e-commerce leader Shopify reported its first-ever $3B+ revenue quarter Wednesday morning, and the stock was jumping, but then the market opened. While the company broke its own records, the excitement over that and a new $2 billion share repurchase program was quickly eclipsed by narrowing margin guidance.
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Free cash flow margins for Q1 2026 were guided to the “low-to-mid teens,” a step down from the 19% achieved in Q4, signaling a heavy reinvestment phase ahead.
Besides comparing results, Stocktwits Community Director Joey “Rockets” Solito said it was another example of a hugely run-up stock taking a break alongside the rest of the software world. Leadership at the Canadian retail shop hosting site feels they are ready for anything, but the market is not so sure:
“No one, and I mean no one, is better positioned to lead in this new era,” Shopify Shopify President Harley Finkelstein said on a call with investors Wednesday. “We’ve spent decades building the infrastructure that allows every type of merchant to thrive.”
Finally, shares of the gaming engine Unity plummeted after a weak revenue forecast this morning. Hopes for the coming year, or lack of them overshadowed a fourth-quarter beat. Despite sequential improvements in its Vector AI ad platform, the company is struggling to convince Wall Street that its turnaround can outpace broader software sector headwinds.
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$0.24 EPS outpaced the estimate on revenue of $503 million, which grew 10% year-over-year. Q1 revenue guidance of $480 million to $490 million missed the $494 million consensus.
It wasn’t just the weak results. Video game designers, or in this case software owners that sell to video game designers, are terrified of AI advancements. Call it slop or not, viral leaks from ByteDance-owned Seedream look as lifelike as ever. Combine that with Western projects like Google’s Genie, and it looks like gamers might generate their own GTA VI before we see Take-Two’s actual release. 🚓
TRENDING STOCKS
Winners and Losers
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$RENX ( ▲ 51.57% ) Renovaro Inc. : The small cap continued to see active retail interest following recent subsidiary contract wins in the logistics and hauling services sector.
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$GNRC ( ▲ 17.93% ) Generac Holdings : Surged to end at $214.73 after a 2026 outlook forecasted double-digit revenue growth fueled by data center energy demand.
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$SNDK ( ▲ 10.65% ) SanDisk : Rose as analysts aggressively lifted price targets following sector-wide optimism in storage and flash memory.
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$MU ( ▲ 9.94% ) Micron Technology : Jumped to $410.34 following a Deutsche Bank price target hike to $500.
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$QNCX ( ▲ 15.6% ) Quince Therapeutics : Remained a high-volume focus as the market evaluated the potential for a strategic merger.
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$SRXH ( ▼ 16.24% ) SolarX Health Corp : Maintained visibility as the company’s move to flatten crypto short positions coincided with a broader 3% washout in the underlying digital asset market.
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$CBRE ( ▼ 12.24% ) CBRE Group : Cratered to $149.63 as the spike in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.20% hammered real estate services and valuation models.
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$LDOS ( ▼ 11.15% ) Leidos Holdings : Dropped to $172.97 amid a sharp sell-off in defense and government services ahead of upcoming investor conferences.
IN PARTNERSHIP WITH VIRTUIX
Virtuix ($VTIX) Enters Europe Following 138% Growth
Virtuix Inc. (NASDAQ: VTIX) announced the launch of Omni One sales in Europe, building on the strong momentum of its “Peloton for gamers” system.
Virtuix’s “Omni” omni-directional treadmills let you move in 360 degrees inside AI-generated environments, whether fictional game worlds or photorealistic replicas of the real world.
$VTIX is ready to scale:
Explosive Growth: 138% YoY revenue growth for the 6 months ended 9/30/2025, with production capacity for $100M annual revenues.
”Peloton for Gamers”: Omni One blends immersive gaming with physical activity, enabling users to burn up to 700 calories per hour.
Defense: Beyond the living room, Virtuix launched “Virtual Terrain Walk” for military mission planning, with test units already purchased by Yokota Air Force Base and West Point.
With its international expansion beyond the U.S. and into defense, Virtuix is only getting started.
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WHAT’S ON DECK
Tomorrow’s Top Things 📋
Macro: Initial Jobless Claims, PPI Inflation, 10-Year Note Auction. 📊
Pre-Market Earnings: $PCG, $GEO, $CROX, $IRM, $ALNY, $ZTS, $QSR, $PBF, $ZBRA, $AEP, $BAX, $H, $CHKP, $EXC, $HWM, $BN, $NBIS. ☀️
After-Market Earnings: $COIN, $DKNG, $RIVN, $ABNB, $PINS, $TWLO, $AMAT, $WYNN, $ANET, $FNMA, $VRTX, $DXCM, $TOST, $FMCC, $CART, $PSA, $ROKU. 🌙
P.S. You can listen to all of these earnings calls on Stocktwits.
Links That Don’t Suck 🌐
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