CBO has estimates for the US Government fiscal surplus in the month of April just hit and not surprisingly, it came in worse than expected with a surplus of $208bn for the month of April vs analyst estimates of $250bn. Based on the QRA announcement last...

As we look ahead to this week’s trading, although there isn’t a ton of US macro data on the calendar, we are reminded that Yellen has a lot of paper to sell this week. $125bn combined of 3y ($58bn), 10y ($42bn) and 30y ($25bn). Treasury...

All these kids on college campuses now engaging in pro Palestinian sit-ins. Exercising their first amendment rights. You know where they will be this summer, right? When there is no school in session. That’s right, the Republican convention in...

With the US government’s structural fiscal train running full steam ahead with no hope of tax hikes or spending cuts to slow it down, the strike price of the Fed’s “put” to add liquidity back into the market is much lower than...

The Fed’s Beige Book just came out and the summary statement was “economic activity continued to expand” for the period of April 8th to May 20th. Compare that to summary line from the November 29th, 2023 release which covered the period...

*YELLEN: CONCERNED ABOUT ‘WHERE WE’RE GOING’ WITH US DEFICIT *YELLEN: US NEEDS ‘SIGNIFICANT STEPS’ TO REDUCE BUDGET DEFICIT Ya think Janet? Cmon. Enough with the gaslighting. pic.twitter.com/tFt0G1KSpO — Craig Shapiro...

Here are some of the recent highlights of important global leaders flying around the world to have significant meetings, which all seem to suggest that something large is potentially brewing in the changing face of the global monetary order: Putin meets...

View the 1 images of this gallery on the original article Source: Bloomberg Trigger Warning: Chart of the Day: Citi Surprise Index vs SFR9 (proxy for federal funds rate 9 months forward) My hypothesis is that the US economy has begun to slow due to the...

View the 1 images of this gallery on the original article Source: Bloomberg There is a pretty reasonable correlation between the outlook for short term interest rates 12-18 months out (as measured by December SOFR Futures – price inverted on chart)...

Gita Gopinath Speech 5/7/24 – Geopolitics and its Impact on Global Trade and the Dollar “Looking at global FX reserves, the most notable development during 2022-23 has been an increase of gold purchases by central banks.” “Gold...