The Fed thought they achieved the immaculate disinflation / “Golden Path” last fall and figured they could pivot policy in a more dovish direction and never deliver the last intended rate hike that a substantial majority of Fed members...

If Japan wants to seriously intervene in currency markets to strengthen the Yen, it would be better if they waited for an elevated rates volatility environment (MOVE index – proxy for UST volatility) like we saw back in October 2022 and October...

Fed speak starts up again today as we will get an update from members of the committee on their thoughts about current monetary policy amidst the recent data for April post their meeting earlier this week. We will learn where Powell stands vs. the rest of...

Bowman showing her hawkish colors again. No surprise there. The reason this is important is that I still firmly believe that Powell cannot begin an interest rate cutting cycle in an election year without unanimous consent. Would be seen as too political for...

CBO has estimates for the US Government fiscal surplus in the month of April just hit and not surprisingly, it came in worse than expected with a surplus of $208bn for the month of April vs analyst estimates of $250bn. Based on the QRA announcement last...

All these kids on college campuses now engaging in pro Palestinian sit-ins. Exercising their first amendment rights. You know where they will be this summer, right? When there is no school in session. That’s right, the Republican convention in...

Personal Update: 3-Circle Investments is Going Behind The Paywall The Alethea Narrative I have decided that it is time to take my skills analyzing financial markets to the next level. I have been actively providing commentary on investing now via this...

View the 1 images of this gallery on the original article Source: Bloomberg

Reminder. Janet has a lot of USTs to sell, every week, from here until eternity: Next Week$69bn 2 yr (Tues)$70bn 5 yr (Tues)$44bn 7 yr (Wed)$28bn 2 yr FRN (Wed) Drip Drip Drip pic.twitter.com/rwShlgIvXZ — Craig Shapiro (@ces921) May 24, 2024

The Fed and market bulls have been making the case that the immaculate disinflation/”golden path” could be achieved via a productivity boom that was upon us, driven by the combination of AI and immigration putting downward pressure on...