CBO has estimates for the US Government fiscal surplus in the month of April just hit and not surprisingly, it came in worse than expected with a surplus of $208bn for the month of April vs analyst estimates of $250bn. Based on the QRA announcement last...

Gita Gopinath Speech 5/7/24 – Geopolitics and its Impact on Global Trade and the Dollar “Looking at global FX reserves, the most notable development during 2022-23 has been an increase of gold purchases by central banks.” “Gold...

All these kids on college campuses now engaging in pro Palestinian sit-ins. Exercising their first amendment rights. You know where they will be this summer, right? When there is no school in session. That’s right, the Republican convention in...

As we look ahead to this week’s trading, although there isn’t a ton of US macro data on the calendar, we are reminded that Yellen has a lot of paper to sell this week. $125bn combined of 3y ($58bn), 10y ($42bn) and 30y ($25bn). Treasury...

*YELLEN: CONCERNED ABOUT ‘WHERE WE’RE GOING’ WITH US DEFICIT *YELLEN: US NEEDS ‘SIGNIFICANT STEPS’ TO REDUCE BUDGET DEFICIT Ya think Janet? Cmon. Enough with the gaslighting. pic.twitter.com/tFt0G1KSpO — Craig Shapiro...

View the 1 images of this gallery on the original article Source: Bloomberg Trigger Warning: Chart of the Day: Citi Surprise Index vs SFR9 (proxy for federal funds rate 9 months forward) My hypothesis is that the US economy has begun to slow due to the...

The pathway to a risk asset top goes through the introduction of dual sided risk to the Fed’s next policy decision. Removing the asymmetric bias where the bar for the Fed to cut rates is much lower than the bar to hike rates will help re-introduce...

Trigger Warning Hypothesis – Biden was waiting for his son’s conviction before stepping out of the Presidential race. Now that the conviction has come, he will pardon his son, tell America that he has chosen family over country like any...

As many of you know, I trade my own capital for a living after a 20 year career managing money on Wall Street for some very large, well-known hedge funds. I am tired of managing money for others and dealing with risk managers and investors. I’d...

View the 1 images of this gallery on the original article Source: Bloomberg, BLS Supercore CPI inflation is core services ex-housing and is often seen as the third pillar of inflation that the Fed is trying to bring back down to target after goods...