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OVERVIEW

BTC Reserves Plummet to 2018 Levels 🐂

Source: Giphy

Before we dive in, here’s today’s crypto market heatmap:

Source: Santiment

And here’s a look at crypto’s total market and altcoin market cap charts:

Source: TradingView

ON-CHAIN ANALYTICS
The Supply Keeps Dropping ⤵️ 

The amount of $BTC on the exchanges for normal people like you and me continues to dwindle. 🪗 

How low is it now?

Amount Of BTC On Exchanges – Click to enlarge.

Just 1.5 million Bitcoin out there across the exchanges for the regular Joe. That’s the lowest since November 2018!

And there’s no signs of that changing anytime soon. ⌚️ 

Supply Shock? ⚡️ 

It’s a prime example of how “Economics 101” can still apply. When supply fades while demand remains steady or—dare we say—increases, prices have a habit of heading north.

Hardly a new concept, yet it keeps turning heads every time.

Supply shock is the fancy way of saying: not enough coins to go around. The real fun starts when buyers spot the scarcity and decide to pounce. History shows prices can spike quickly in these moments.

But if you’re like me and watching for a spike to happen – then March might be the soonest we see any bullish moves. 📕 

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NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Crypto News 📰

😱 Cardano ETF Filed By Grayscale

Grayscale, NYSE Arca filed for a new Cardano ETF. This is the first major ETF for just Cardano, and follows on the heels of XRP, Dogecoin, and Solana. Very deal, much big. Cointelegraph.

❤️ AI Love Survey: We’re Dating More Bots Than We Think

A new poll of 90,000 humans reveals that one in four has flirted with a chatbot, and 60% suspect their online love interest might be a script. Unsurprisingly, 90% of them want better verification so they’re not scheduling candlelit dinners with code. Catfished by an algorithm is just peak 2025 romance. Worldcoin.

🚀 Gen Z And Gen Alpha Saving For Retirement… With Crypto?

Bitget says 78% of young folks trust crypto and real estate over old-school pensions. A wild 20% even want their retirement checks in digital coins. Guess the next big shocker is Social Security introducing a “Send to MetaMask” option. Crypto Valley Journal.

⚖️ Powell’s “Take A Fresh Look” At Debanking

Crypto-friendly banks keep getting the cold shoulder, and Fed Chair Powell’s finally noticing. He’s promising fewer “oops, we over-regulated you” moments. We’ll see if that vow holds or if it’s just political lip service. The Block.

⏳ SEC + Binance Hit The Pause Button

They’re calling time-out for 60 days, waiting on new crypto rules from the SEC’s brand-new “Task Force.” Binance says the SEC has zero grounds to crack down, and the SEC wants more time to figure out if it actually does. Basically, it’s recess for the foreseeable future. TheStreet.

💸 FTX Could Have Hit $65B In Assets

Before going belly-up, FTX had its tentacles in everything from Solana to SpaceX, with a grand total of $65 billion. Now creditors get valuations set back in 2022—missing out on the market bounce. Moral of the story: the bankruptcy team is dicking over customers and creditors as hard as Sam Bankman-Fraud. coincu.

💰 Bitwise: “Institutions Will Buy Your Bitcoin”

Bitwise says governments and big companies aren’t mining new Bitcoin; they’re looking to snag yours. With only 21 million coins up for grabs, it’s a showdown between diamond hands and monstrous demand. If you want to sell, they’ll be waiting—holding a wad of cash and a hopeful grin. AltcoinBuzz.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Let’s Look At The Charts 📈 

Cardano

ADAUSD Weekly Chart

Bullish Narrative

• Price remains perched above the Cloud.

• Future Cloud is green.

• Chikou Span hovers in open space.

• The Composite Index hit historical support last week, and so far, the bounce looks good. Also, there’s hidden bullish divergence present.

• Similarly, the DTO dropped to its lowest since June 2022.

• Ultimately, bulls need to close above the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen to see things go back to full bull mode.

Bearish Narrative

• Failure to close above at least the Kijun-Sen this week could give bears the ammo they need to push Cardano into the red even more.

XRP

XRPUSD Daily Chart – Click to enlarge.

Bullish Narrative

• Price is floating above Tenkan-Sen (2.29) yet still below Kijun-Sen (2.57). Bulls see that as a halfway point, not a dead end.

• Detrended Price Oscillator is rising from its worst levels since 2018. That’s a nice “about time” moment for bullish contrarians.

• Composite Index bounced off historical support and closed above it fast average (green MA).

• If the Composite Index closes above its slow average (yellow/orange-ish MA) and the Detrended Price Oscillator closes above the zero line, then bulls could see some explosive moves higher.

Bearish Narrative

• Stuck under the Kijun-Sen at 2.57. Until that changes, some folks will remain unimpressed.

• If you’re someone who likes to short, then there’s definitely some weakness developing. If XRP were to close at or below $2.27, that would put the Chikou Span below Senkou Span A and that could precede a major, major drop down to Senkou Span B at $1.71.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
Metaverse, NFT, & Gaming News 🎮️

⚙️ Dark Machine Taps Sui’s Dynamic NFTs

A mech-shooter with destructible arenas, huge robots, and anime flair? Dark Machine is going all-in on Sui’s NFT tech to let you pilot, damage, and upgrade your mech in style. They’re even tossing in an eSports twist, so get ready to blast enemies (and maybe your wallet) right from the SuiPlay0X1 handheld console. Sui.

🔎 Ronin Market Trading Contest: Let The Volume Games Begin

Ronin’s throwing a one-month NFT trading fest with over $100k in rewards. They’ll hand out RON, NFTs, and bonus partner tokens for top traders and raffle winners. If you think you can out-trade bots without wash-trading, jump in and pray your wallet’s volume hits the leaderboard. Ronin.

👗 Metaverse Fashion Week 2025: “Infinite Identities”

Decentraland’s bringing the runway drama back, encouraging designers to create Wearables that scream “this is me” in digital form. They’re tossing in brand-run shows, a design prize for the boldest “banner” Wearables, and a catwalk for all the weird and wonderful. Decentraland.

NEWS IN THREE SENTENCES
DeFi, DEX, and Lending Protocol News 🏦

🐻 Band Protocol Joins Berachain Testnet

Berachain might’ve started as a meme, but now it’s tapping Band Protocol’s oracles for serious DeFi feeds on bArtio Testnet. They promise real-time price data for BTC, ETH, USDC, and USDT so your on-chain Degen trades don’t blindside you. Maybe the next big DeFi meltdown will at least have accurate price updates. Band Protocol.

🪙 Ondo’s USDY Debuts on Stellar

Ondo Finance is bringing its yield-bearing USDY token—backed by Treasuries and bank deposits—to Stellar. That means non-U.S. folks can park idle funds in a stablecoin that actually earns something, rather than collecting digital dust. Expect faster remittances, fewer fiat headaches, and 24/7 liquidity that might finally convince your bank to up its game. Stellar.

🥞 PancakeSwap January: Still Burning CAKE

They chopped another million CAKE from circulation, hitting 17 straight months of net reduction. Two oversubscribed IFOs and a 70-week average lockup show the DeFi sweet tooth hasn’t gone away. If you’re bullish on pancakes, the stats say it’s still one of the busiest kitchens in town. Pancakeswap.

LINKS
Links That Don’t Suck 🔗

♟️ Strategy resumes Bitcoin buying after rebrand

🕹️ Unity’s struggles continue with fresh wave of layoffs

🇵🇱 Poland Central Bank will not buy Bitcoin ‘under any circumstances’

🧱 Wall Street banks expand crypto ties amid Trump’s pro-crypto stance: Report

🌍️ Central African Republic memecoin collapses 97% from peak less than two days after launch

🦟 MIT builds swarms of tiny robotic insect drones that can fly 100 times longer than previous designs

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Author Disclosure: The author of this newsletter holds positions in ADA, LTC, IMX, WMT, COPI, MIN, AGIX, ALGO, DOGE, ZEC, AVAX, XLM, XTZ, and NEAR. 📋