The Howard Lindzon Show: Prediction Markets & How Platforms Are Reshaping Investing for The Degenerate Economy
Good morning…
We’re back for another episode of The Howard Lindzon Show with Michelle Steele. If you scroll down you can easily subscribe to this weekly show on YouTube, Spotify and or Apple. The first episode was last week. This conversation spans everything from the Degenerate Economy Index to the future of prediction markets, regulation, and Gen Z’s relationship with risk.
First, I break down why I recently added $AMZN ( ▲ 0.06% ) to the Degenerate Economy Index, why prediction markets are not just betting, but a new form of media, and how platforms like Robinhood, Coinbase, Polymarket, DraftKings and Kalshi are racing to own distribution and the customer wallet.
Michelle and I then react to the Wall Street Journal’s framing of “financial nihilism” among Gen Z, pushing back on the idea that young investors are abandoning hard work in favor of gambling.
The episode closes with a candid look at SEC regulation, market chaos vs. clarity, and why 2026 could mark peak prediction markets, as these platforms increasingly shape headlines, narratives, and how people understand probability in real time.
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JUMP TO THE GOOD STUFF:
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(0:00) Holiday edition kickoff + Degenerate Index check-in
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(0:23) What’s in the Degenerate Economy Index (and why it rarely changes)
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(1:02) Why Howard added Amazon (the “edge” of degeneracy)
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(1:44) Degenerate economy needs autos: Waymo, Tesla FSD, and Amazon’s angle
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(2:06) Rivian thesis: “bid underneath it” + Amazon as the Rivian proxy
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(3:16) Michelle finds her original Stocktwits account (2012) + Apple throwback
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(3:59) WSJ “financial nihilism”: Gen Z, gambling, crypto, and risk-taking
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(5:11) Howard reacts: “clickbait,” betting vs investing, and the real issue—vaping
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(8:27) Parenting reality: exposure, addiction, and why this isn’t going away
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(9:34) Prediction markets as media: reducing rage + better “odds-based” signal
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(10:53) Why sports betting is a broken business (even when the house wins)
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(11:28) SEC warning: staff down 20% + “rigged venues” and the house analogy
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(12:13) From Gensler “mystery rules” to fear of “no rules” (chaos risk in 2026)
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(15:24) Scale/verticalization: Robinhood, Coinbase, DraftKings race to own the stack
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(17:34) What happens to Polymarket & Kalshi in 2026 + “peak predictions”
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(20:24) Stocktwits push into prediction markets + True Odds shoutout
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(21:06) Robinhood vs Coinbase as the “super app” (distribution wins)
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(23:44) Goodbye 2025, hello 2026: tariffs, market resilience, and degenerate economy outlook
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(26:07) Closing banter + why the best CEOs use their own products (storytelling)
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